Freddy is torn between two options - get stronger and live longer, but head north twoards those Euro folks with the biased super weather computer ensembles.... or get weak and head towards the east coast.

WTNT42 KNHC 100834
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009

FRED IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH
OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES.  AN
AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0411Z SHOWED THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAD
AN INTACT INNER CORE...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT.  THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HERALDING THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SSTS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST PATH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. IN A DAY OR SO...FRED IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE GFDL/HWRF STILL APPEAR TO
UNREALISTICALLY KEEP FRED TOO INTENSE IN THE FACE OF RATHER STRONG
SHEAR...THOUGH THEIR WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE REDUCED FROM SIX
HOURS AGO.

THE AMSR-E PASS HELPED TO PLACE THE INITIAL MOTION AT 315/10.  THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AS
FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THEREAFTER...
FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM BY DAY 3...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE LEFT AND
BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT THE END. IF THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TRACK EVEN MORE TO THE WEST IS
LIKELY...BUT IF FRED REMAINS A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN IT
COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN INDICATED BELOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0900Z 15.9N  34.6W    90 KT
12HR VT     10/1800Z 16.6N  35.1W    80 KT
24HR VT     11/0600Z 17.4N  35.1W    75 KT
36HR VT     11/1800Z 17.9N  34.7W    65 KT
48HR VT     12/0600Z 18.2N  34.2W    55 KT
72HR VT     13/0600Z 19.5N  34.0W    40 KT
96HR VT     14/0600Z 21.5N  35.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N  39.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW

Here's the NHC "consensus" cone of death....

Here's the "spaghetti" bowl mess that are the computer tracks......

The hydra track plot my favorite, namely because it means that no one really knows what is going to do, but it sure does look cool.

Nice avatar there Minion! Sorta' sums up how you will feel tomorrow when we drown the crew in the Zodiacs in the 4-6' seas, heh! heh!!!

Meanwhile, the NHC map looks like a demented version of "Whack-A-Mole".... They are just popping up all over the place....

And the reasons why they are allegedly  suspicious....

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 745 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE DELAWARE
COAST IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

3. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Personally, I'm not particularly happy with Fearless Freddy.... It's turned to the west and while predicted to basically die out, it will hit warner waters if i continues in that direction.

Here's the NHC yaddy yaddy...

WTNT42 KNHC 110848
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
500 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2009

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER FRED...SO IT
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE ANY STRUCTURAL CHANGES.  OVERALL...
CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE STRONG NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HOLDING STEADY NEAR 77 KT.  YET
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING
ELONGATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH EVEN SOME HINTS
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER.  FOR NOW...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 75 KT...BUT
THAT ESTIMATE COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
APPEARS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY
CAUSING STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH EVEN STRONGER
SHEAR THEREAFTER.  ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE MARGINALLY WARM...THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOTION OF FRED SHOULD CAUSE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS AND
HELP TO DIMINISH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS MODEL.

IT APPEARS THAT FRED HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH OR 000/3.
LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST PERHAPS NUDGING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE A LITTLE NORTHEASTWARD.   ONCE FRED WEAKENS INTO A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A REBUILDING SURFACE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HR THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST
AFTERWARDS...A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/0900Z 17.7N  35.1W    75 KT
12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.9N  35.0W    60 KT
24HR VT     12/0600Z 18.0N  34.8W    50 KT
36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.2N  34.6W    40 KT
48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.6N  34.7W    35 KT
72HR VT     14/0600Z 20.0N  37.5W    25 KT
96HR VT     15/0600Z 21.5N  42.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

Fearless Freddie, two days ago it was projected to go to Greenland, and it has decided to do like all other hurricanes, and aim at Okeechobee. I really am begining to think that the dark portal in a certine house in Okeechobee is causing all bad evil things to target this area of the world.

Military is still watching it; here's their track.

We're doomed, again...........

I don't have a good feeling about this one.

I really think that unless the latest low off Africa develops, we may only see some rough surf and heavy thunderstorms from any remnants of Freddy. Yah never know.

The one that bears watching, if but for the rainfall it can produce is the low system off the Texas coast. Steering winds bring it over LA, etc and it could be alot of rain.