I emailed with Marshall today.He's fine but very busy still.  Between family duty and increased work responsibility he's still covered up. This thread looks like a good start to tracking and reporting in the Groomlakearea style. Take care of each other !

 

Michael

colterphoto1:

 I emailed with Marshall today.He's fine but very busy still. 

That's good to hear.

Yes glad to hear that, been thinking about him.

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

WTNT42 KNHC 150840
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
ANA. THE STORM IS DISPLAYING IMPROVED BANDING IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE ALONG WITH A BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. NOAA
BUOY 41041 REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1005 MB AS THE
DEPRESSION PASSED VERY NEAR THE BUOY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THE
TRACK OF ANA GRADUALLY BENDING FROM A WEST TO A WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIERS TO THIS TRACK ARE THE GFDL AND GFS...WHICH BOTH WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM RATHER QUICKLY...LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...
SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS
APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
25N 65W. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INFLUENCE ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT HOLD ONTO
ANA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FOR THIS ADVISORY...
BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 0000 UTC GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A MORE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES...SHOWING A
WEAKER MID-OCEANIC TROUGH AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. IN PARTICULAR...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS BUILD UPPER-RIDGING NEAR THE CYCLONE WITH LIGHT
SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR DEVELOPING IN ABOUT A DAY...BUT EVEN THAT MODEL HAS LIGHTER
SHEAR CONDITIONS IN A FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RUNS THE
FULL SPECTRUM THIS MORNING...WITH THE GFDL DISSIPATING THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE HWRF SHOWS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0900Z 14.6N  46.8W    35 KT
12HR VT     15/1800Z 14.7N  49.4W    40 KT
24HR VT     16/0600Z 15.3N  52.7W    45 KT
36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.1N  56.4W    45 KT
48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N  60.0W    50 KT
72HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N  67.0W    55 KT
96HR VT     19/0600Z 22.5N  73.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 26.0N  78.5W    60 KT

Here's the five day cone:

 

Notice underlined portion of forecast.  NHC has shifted "Cone of Death" (Groomie's favorite line) further southwestward for this forecast, "but not as far southwest as the model consensus".

 I sure miss Groomie, cuz I'm not real good at this stuff.

NHC says some models show Ana will be CAT 2 by end of forecast period, while others keep it tropical storm.  If track does go further southwest it will have plenty of time to strengthen.

There's another "area of intrest" right behind Ana that will most likely end up larger than Ana.

I don't know alot about how these systems work either, but there is an area in the eastern thats a Cat. 3 for anyone over by that way.

This is always an intersting time for me...even though I live in tornado land, I have a sister that lives on a 43rd floor penthouse condo in Miami Beach...She is on the highest floor of the tallest building on the beach...you can see the atlantic unobstructed forever basically.  I always worry about her getting out of there if something bad were to hit, because traffic off the beach is a nightmare...when they closed one of the three bridges, the congestion was madness getting onto the mainland without any panic mode.  I told her about this thread and tried to get her to join up, since she is my designated weather girl for updates and live action photos...sometimes she gets nice pics of water spouts and stuff, since you can see storms coming over the ocean like 30 minutes in advance.  Luckily Miami has not really been hit to hard since Andrew.

CECAA850:

There's another "area of intrest" right behind Ana that will most likely end up larger than Ana.

Okay, I can only handle one "issue" at a time.  I'm not real good at "multi-tasking"...especially with hurricanes.  It takes everything I have to handle one storm at a time.

  But....I will give it a shot.  Like I said, I really miss Groomie, he was great at this stuff.

Here's the cone on #3:

 

Looks like it will take almost the path as Ana????

Here's the newest track on Ana.  Looks like it shifted more south????

 

For those of us who keep up with hurricanes, I will name the pics as follows:  stormnametimedate...ie ana11am815.  That may help a little bit.

For those of you that are not familiar with hurricanes the National Weather Service has an abundance of information available, with tons of archived stuff.

The updated cones will help you see how quickly the path can change.

11 a.m. 8/15 update on tropical depression 3 from NHC:

WTNT43 KNHC 151440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS FORMED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.

THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER WAS BEING
TRACKED YESTERDAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
265/15.  SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE DEPRESSION
INTERACTS WITH THE ELONGATED MONSOON/TROPICAL WAVE CIRCULATION THAT
SPAWNED IT.  OVERALL...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE MODELS
AROUND THE 5 DAY FORECAST POINT.  ONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF...
WHICH FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AND AT THIS TIME IS A RIGHT OUTLIER.

THE CYCLONE IS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS.  ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A MAJOR
HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72-96
HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/1500Z 11.5N  34.0W    30 KT
12HR VT     16/0000Z 11.3N  36.1W    35 KT
24HR VT     16/1200Z 11.3N  38.9W    40 KT
36HR VT     17/0000Z 11.8N  41.7W    45 KT
48HR VT     17/1200Z 12.4N  44.4W    50 KT
72HR VT     18/1200Z 14.0N  50.5W    60 KT
96HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N  57.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N  63.0W    90 KT