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Jeffrey D. Medwin

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About Jeffrey D. Medwin

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    Forum Veteran
  • Birthday 11/27/1944

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  • Gender
  • Location
    50 miles East of Kansas City, MO.
  • Interests
    Audio, music, and the stock market, ..............is there anything else ?
  • My System
    Two stage Direct Coupled DIY triode amps, careful wiring, very lightly-modded professional - use speakers.
  • See My System

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  1. I started this thread on May 4th, and the topic is : " Is the bear market for stocks continuing "? At last, today I have a CLUE, just a few hours old, I would like to share ASAP with you all, 100% pertaining to this thread My post today is based on the closing chart of one stock, TODAY, May, 28th. ...........I believe its market ACTION tells us something VERY INTERESTING!!! The stock symbol is TZA, and it is a NYSE- listed ETF, or Exchange Traded Fund. Here is what it looks like, updated as of this afternoon : TZA is a "inverse" ETF, based on Small Cap Stocks. It drops when the small caps are rising, and vice versa. TZA made an all time historic low this morning, since its ever been trading, and it closed UP for the day, on the second biggest volume day it has ever recorded. Whenever a stock makes an all time historic new high, or a all time historic new low, and closes in the opposite direction, from the prior day's closing price, this is called a classic " One Day Reversal ". To me, this is a great clue, based on market action, that the bear market may possibly be SOON starting its second leg down, perhaps like we had in March 2020. This "clue" comes not from people jawboning on a Forum, ( often with no real " skin in the game" ), but from what people owning 28.6 Million shares of TZA DID today, with their own money,....HOW they voted. Notice the gray and red colored VOLUME bars, for each day, at the bottom of the main chart. Yesterday, and today, were by far, the largest volume days this instrument has ever had, in its entire history. The volume the last two days was about three-fold what the volume was, when the stock ran to 120 this year in March, as the market was declining. 28.6 million shares today, and a classic One Day Reversal. What is this suggesting to you?? WHAT direction, and in what time frame, are all these people in TZA today thinking the market will go?? WHY did it close so strong, near its high for the day ??? Of course, this is only a clue, and its not definitive. But it is SUCH an interesting / unusual chart, that I wanted to post it, in a timely fashion, and share it with any of you interested in this thread's topic. Thanks for looking...and thinking about this. We shall see !!!! Jeffrey Medwin
  2. Dump the POT Joe !! get RID of it. You have a overall system volume control of some sort, don't you, a preamp, or a system attenuator. ???? If so, any pot on the input of an amplifier is redundant and not necessary to running your system !! If you think about it, the pot is located at the LOWEST SIGNAL LEVEL in the entire amplifier, at the input !!!! You are running the entire audio signal through a complex part, that acts somewhat like a diode, in the contact area between the wiper and the pot's winding. What the heck, who needs that added signal degradation.?? Do NOT run any signal from the RCA INPUT jack into the POT !!!! From the RCA jack, use a short length of Cardas Polished 19 AWG silver, or if on a budget, Wonder Wire from Michael Percy ( he sells both, and W.W. is fine for THAT amp ) . Solder the Wonder Wire directly from the RCA INPUT jack to the tube socket's pin, associated with the control grid. A short, direct connection of silver-content wire. Best possible sonic solution !! In my experience and opinion, pots on the input of a tube amp is a negative !! Convenience over sonic performance is the choice the designers made, to sell product. Jeffry Medwin
  3. A well designed amp's internal voltages will TRACK together, such that it should work OK over the range of input line VAC's you quoted. Your amp will take a minimum of 100 hours use to break in, and it will change in its sound, typically improve, as parts and the many solder joints break in........and as time marches on. A VARIAC is not a good idea to use in-line, IF you have a really well done, well-wired audio system. It steals dynamic contrasting, and robs you of some of the FUN in the music listening experience. A Variac is FINE for testing on a bench, or bringing up voltages slowly if needed, but it is not a good idea to use it permanently, as you seem to be suggesting you are doing. Enjoy your tube amp. Jeff Medwin
  4. Possibly so, I only work in high quality two stage amps, and high quality passive speaker crossovers, so I have not had " Universal " experience to accurately answer you Maynard. I can certainly say this, a 0.01uF cap will play very differently than a 0.22 uF cap, and about the same - music spectrum wise, in the various places one may use those differing values. Generally, the smaller the uF size, the higher in the music spectrum it plays.
  5. - Dear Maynard, I do not know your thoughts on this subject. I have not changed my design approach or philosophy, from what we see here, in this thread, today. [Surpurfluous material removed] Yes I prefer simple circuits. For the last dozen years, all my amps are ONLY two stages and direct coupled. The RIAA EQ/ Phono section of this thread's preamp is also two stages, anode drive, and I made it directly coupled. The line stage is just ONE tube, a 12B4A, anode driven, with a cap before and after it, by necessity. Why use multiple paralleled capacitors you ask ?? Easy. IMHO, the WORST sounding part in all of audio is a film capacitor. There is not ONE single film capacitor existing, that will play the entire music envelope, optimally in ALL music ranges. Not a single cap exists. That is right, even a Dueland, etc., you name it. Let me repeat that again : There is not ONE single film capacitor existing, that will play the entire music envelope, optimally in ALL music ranges. This applies to amplifiers, preamplifiers, and crossovers for speakers. So Maynard, since I want "my" personal-use amps to play ALL the music, as good as it can be had, it necessitates the use of multiple film bypass cap "bundles", where most everyone else uses a single caps. There is only ONE way to determine which caps to select, and that is done by ear. 'Ya got to listen and decide. A typical audio experimenter, will add a second film cap, to emphasize a certain range, that their single cap does not reproduce fully. The experimenter will notice the difference, but will also sense a loss of coherency, obtained VS.: a single cap. There will likely be a "hole" between the two caps, a "drop-out" some wheres in the music's range, even though the added cap sounds better , IN THE RANGE IT PLAYS. TYPICALLY, the average audio person will discard further multiple film cap bypass experimenting. " It doesn't work " they will tell you. Where they flunk-out is they fail to identify the drop out areas, and fail to add additional cap(s) to get the whole music range and listening experience RIGHT. Of course, one has to KNOW what value film caps play in what music range, almost everyone does not know this. Also, the film caps MUST be top notch performers, if you want to do this well. Open your wallets !! DynamiCaps, made by Reliable Capacitor, designed by Richard Marsh, were designed to be paralleled. They are excellent. Unfortunately, in 2020, we can not get all the key uF values needed, in stock. Sometimes, a Mundorf Supreme Silver and Oil will do, in a pinch. The bottom line on proper multiple cap bypassing is, if you didn't know better, a single cap will do. But IF ( a big word) you hear a properly multiple bypassed amplifier, etc., one would NEVER elect to listen to anything else..." gotta have it !! " Maynard, there are two other areas where my simple circuits will take on added parts, and both are power supply related. After building and listening to the 2019 KT88 SE amp, with double series shunt regulation, to the driver tube, that is ALL I will use, going forward. This requires an added R/C section, with a good quality wirewound going from B+ to ground, to draw shunt current. My front end stages were always SINGLE shunted the last dozen years, but after hearing the 2019 amp perform, double series shunted, it is ALL I will do, henceforth. As stated prominently in this thread, each triode's B+ is double series shunted. The audio circuit draws about 70 mA., and the SHUNTS draws about 110 mA. 2. I use an elaborate Dennis Fraker Final Filter, on the Plate Resistor of each tube, on each Ra. Since Dennis is a manufacturer, and such a filter is exclusively HIS design, I am not at liberty to provide details, except to say its can be a choke - cap type filter, right at the EACH tube's plate resistor. I should point out, wherever I use a coupling cap, it WILL be multiple film cap bypassed, and any bypassed Rk ( cathode resistor) will also be MULTIPLE film cap bypassed, as its CRITICAL to a SE amp circuit's overall sound. Never ever any electrolytic cap, for an Rk bypass. These parts add up in space and in cost, but they are needed, I have found, if going for the best possible result. Jeff Medwin
  6. 5-24-2020 ......................... Got the building modules for the 12AX7s to BARELY fit inside. That is positive. What happens when these build modules get populated with parts ? Will be very crowded, that is what happens. Most of what you are now seeing is designed to support the Plate Resistor ( Ra ) of each triode, with optimized wide-band capacitance - energy, located right at it's point-of-use !!! Close to zero lead length for that one " baby " WIMA bypass cap in the third photo. Every build module / tube section gets one " baby " cap like that, ( which provides energy for music's EXTREME highs ) as intimately-as-possible placed on the tube's Plate Resistor. This preamp's tubes' will each typically each use five capacitors in parallel, ( where everyone else will use one, or maybe...two ) to cover the entire music spectrum. FYI, only a few people build like this, in the audio art. What is interesting here is, there has never previously been a preamp in audio, designed and built like this one.
  7. That is sad. He likely spent the money, so he could not return your funds paid, and likely easily fixed the tube amplifier and simply resold it. I also have seen this happen - with someone else, for BIG dollars, tens of thousands. This occurs when the amplifier builder is financially pressed. The builder takes advantage of the buyer, and does not have proper morals.
  8. JJK, You need to open a margin account to sell short. There are various intricate financial requirements on different types of options transactions, read the fine print. That is precisely why I shied away from suggesting to newbies - messing with, and even trying to learn about options. My February 27, 2020 suggestion : to buy a Inverse Exchange Traded Fund, or ETF, ( TVIX, etc, there are MANY now a days ) with no more than 5% of one's money, was a very SIMPLE cash transaction, that ANYONE with a brokerage account in their own name can do, any time. But this, like any stock purchase, certainly needs to be TIMED well !! This is certainly not for beginners. It requires very judicious use, constant monitoring. At this point in time, I still really LIKE the asset allocation of 95% CASH, 5% inverse ETFs, but that is not suitable as any blanket recommendation, its just my personal preference, just as it was in February 2020. Artto seems to be mostly in cash also, and he does HIS HOMEWORK !!! When last officially reported, it seems Mr. Warren Buffett has the largest cash position he has ever had, about 130 billion dollars. Fact : there was very very SMALL volume on this March 2020 sell off, VS: 2008, and other bottoms, so I personally am acting ( for myself ), as though this 2020 market has had NO capitulation. Which is essentially true !! This potentially offers, and allows us to prepare now, for what may become a once-in-our-generation's life-time, ( possibly best ) stock market investing opportunity ! Please have patience, cash ......won't go out of style. Jeff Medwin
  9. In really well made Single Ended direct coupled amplifiers, we have recently ( 5-2020 ) discovered, that while a single KT88 is a great audio tube, a KT150 in its place, was preferable to us. " More open sounding ". When optimally executed, a modest single EH KT88 was able to totally out-play every 2A3 Finals tube we A-Bed it against last year, ( 8-2019 ) including a JJ 2A3, EML Mesh Plate 2A3 and the highly regarded VAIC Mesh Plate 2A3. No contest, at all. Jeff
  10. 5-22-2020........................................ Wire Preparation................... of 50 uF power supply film caps :
  11. PROGRESS PHOTO 5-21-2020 Finally solved the coupling - shaft /pulley interface mechanical problem - today. This was unresolved for a month or longer.
  12. "We've surely got trouble! Right here in River City! Remember the Maine, Plymouth Rock and the Golden Rule! Oh, we've got trouble. We're in terrible, terrible trouble." Despite what Jeff Matthews quotes about Warren Buffett, Mr. Buffet has NOT bought this stock market drop, nor have I. Buffett has the biggest CASH hoard ever in his life, what $130 Billion. Unlike others, I certainly DO have an opinion as to where we are going. We are going to have a huge huge huge CRASH, the worst ever in recorded history, is my personal opinion. I saw this chart today, and an hour ago, and it tipped me over into changing the asset allocation of my PERSONAL account, from 1/3 Cash, .....2/3 rds Short, to .....100% Short The chart that follows has a stock symbol of DPST. It is an ETF, or Exchange Traded Fund. It is called " Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3 Xs Shares ", and it is a TRIPLE LEVERAGED bull ( to the upside) exchange traded fund. I have selected a 6 months time frame, so we can all see three months before and after the drop. What is startling to me is, that since the drop, this has NOT recovered one iota, as this general market had a vibrant Bear Market rally. DPST fell from 400 to 50, and it is trading at 55 today. Holey smokes!! WHAT does this tell ME??? That the Banks are in huge trouble, and NO ONE seems to be willing to bet it will get better !!! Most banks are overextended, and we will possibly / probably see massive bank failures as as this progresses in time. Also factoring into my decision today to go all-in, on the short side, was that someone yesterday put in a bid to buy 25,000 shares of TVIX at $150.00 a share, and there was 100 shares offered at 150.01 !!! We have never seen that size before in TVIX, as a single bid - at a single price point. That buyer ( $3.75 million dollars ) eventually got his shares, and I will JOIN him !!!! "We've surely got trouble! Right here in River City! Remember the Maine, Plymouth Rock and the Golden Rule! Oh, we've got trouble. We're in terrible, terrible trouble." I DO hope the Moderator will allow me to freely express my personal view here, as the Original Poster of this timely thread. It is NOT meant as investment advice for others, which is his concern. Its just an update on my own portfolio asset allocation, and some reasoning that causes me to act today. This suits me fine, and is certainly NOT investment advice for others. Yes, I DO have an opinion, and I act on it, as I see fit, in my own account. BTW, I bought things other than TVIX today to go all in, other ETFs. Have fun, I do. Jeffrey Medwin
  13. If I ONLY had a thousand dollars, for each time I said that to myself....the hunt has ended. Enjoy yourself. Jeff Medwin
  14. 5-20-2020 Waiting for more parts to arrive, some preliminary preparation work on 50 uF WIMA caps, 5 of the 6 used : Get this??? 1) NEW one-bolt mounting to chassis, 2) multiple orientation is possible inside a chassis 3) larger wire can be now be attached to Capacitor's terminals ( to improve energy-transfer efficiency ) 4) positioned off chassis surfaces : cap becomes less effected by chassis heat, ( when using chassis-mount Power Resistors / SHUNTING B+ supplies. ) Improves long term reliability of this film cap. 5) and.... its entirely reusable. Yes, it will get soldered. This is a partially - assembled photo.
  15. The facts that Artto refers to, put and call option ratios of their buying and selling, are useful, my friends and I have been following them since the late 1960s. They are, however, NOT a market timing tool , as a trend in the market can be in force, and override these ratios when they are skewed, for very long periods of time, and price. They are one, of many indicators. Every one of them is a fact. Jeff Medwin
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