Any TA guys out there??

[Rockets]

I think the overall market is due for a little correction. I just dumped all of my Ford because my reading of the tea leaves saw bearish divergences in several of the indicators... that and a potential double top forming. Yeah, I know there's not a lot of time between the tops, but they did have over a 10% draw down between them.. I'm not expecting a large retreat, but the chance of buying back in at a lower price seems to be an opportunity here.There's a gap that needs to be filled also.

Boeing had a nice sustainable trend going, but has really accelerated in the past few days, so it too is probably going to get a light spanking.

Anybody else out there seeing or agreeing with what I see?? Hell, even if you disagree, I'm all ears []

THANKS

[InVeNtOr]

i took the "TA" differently.....lol

[merkin]

I took it as T&A also. Of course I like other parts too.

[Saturn5]

I came here to talk about Trans Ams.

[InVeNtOr]

that is what i thought TA meant.....now i feel let down.....

[stan krajewski]

Any TA guys out there??

And what kind of responses did you think that would draw?

[CECAA850]

I thought this was going to be about Lenny Bruce.

[J.4knee]

OK I still have no idea what TA is?

[fenderbender]

I took it as T&A also.   Of course I like other parts too.

There are other parts??????

[Tom Adams]

I took it as T&A also. Of course I like other parts too.

There are other parts??????

Of course they have other "parts". Like brains & personalities.

Good grief.....I get so sick & tired of women being viewed like this - AND ON THIS FORUM NO LESS!!

Tom

[Mr. RF62]

Hey, a T.A. guy answered.

[fenderbender]

I took it as T&A also.   Of course I like other parts too.

There are other parts??????

Of course they have other "parts".  Like brains & personalities.

Good grief.....I get so sick & tired of women being viewed like this - AND ON THIS FORUM NO LESS!!

Tom

Brains and personalities??? thats what my buddies and my dogs are for!!! [][][]

Please don't tell my wife or I'll be sleeping with the dogs on top of my Klipcsh collection, out on the curb.... [:'(]

[Coytee]

OK I still have no idea what TA is?

I too thought it was an automotive thread.

I believe he's asking about Technical Analysis. Someone who looks at a chart of a stock or the market in general and in a sense, 'reads' those charts to get an opinion on what the trading pattern means and what might or might not happen next.

There are people who think TA is bogus and work only on the fundamentals of a company (earnings, dividends, sales...) and there are others who put a lot of credit into TA.

If I misunderstood the OP, my apologies to him.

[Rockets]

Coytee, you are correct. I thought there were more stock traders here that dabbled in the dark arts, but obviously I'm wrong [*-)] TA isn't fool proof, it all depends upon the fool doing the analysis.. I can say that I've seen and experienced enough to become a believer though. Like anything, the more you practice, the better you get.

If anyone is interested in the subject, this book is an excellent place to start. http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Living-Psychology-Tactics-Management/dp/0471592242/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1244897857&sr=8-1

Ford did fall as expected, as well as Boeing. Next question is the re-entry point for a swing trade. Frankly, the overall market looks weak to me at the moment and is postureing for a pull back. A quick give away is the market volume is falling, while price is going up. Not a good thing. There are a few other signs too that are signaling a pull back. It may go up a little more before it retreats though. Time will tell.

For those of you expecting a little of the other TA. Maybe your eyes can feast upon this

[Rockets]

I don't care who you are THAT's too funny............[]

[Coytee]

Coytee, you are correct. I thought there were more stock traders here that dabbled in the dark arts, but obviously I'm wrong TA isn't fool proof, it all depends upon the fool doing the analysis.. I can say that I've seen and experienced enough to become a believer though

I agree with you and though I don't subscribe to any single theory, I personally put some credence in this. If you ever want to chat about it or other things in the investment world, feel free to ask. I've been a dabbler in the stock market for 23 years now.

[artto]

Thinking the market
is due for a correction is a mistake. NEVER make any assumptions about what YOU
THINK the market is going to do. The market doesn’t care what we think. It
doesn’t know us. It doesn’t care. It is never right or wrong, it simply IS.

Technical indicators as buy and sell signals (or any “indicators”
for that matter) are useless without first determining other things such as
market direction, position sizing and knowing where the money flow is strongest
and weakest.

While Boeing has been steadily increasing in strength for
the last 250 days, it’s still far below my filter criteria for buying and not
nearly weak enough to short.

Ford was strongest about 20 days ago, as was the automotive sector
at that time. It (and the sector and industry group) has since weakened
considerably and no longer meets my filter strength criteria.

I don’t put too much value in “patterns” anymore. They’re
not consistent enough and open to too much interpretation. I don’t put much
value in divergences either except under certain conditions.

What technical indicators are you using and how are you
using them?

[Rockets]

<sigh> Bad choice of words on my part as far as 'thinking' the market is due for a correction. The indicators are suggesting to me it's due or is positioning itself for it to happen..Volume and a bearish divergence of the MACD are two indicators suggesting such that come to mind. Which indicators do I use? I use most of them, or at least look at them. However, Volume, RSI, Wilders RSI, MACD, Stocastics and the Ultimate Oscillator are my favorites. What do I look for? Divergences, and confirmation signals.

Short stocks? Not me, I may sell, watch and buy back in, but I don't sell short. Just don't have the nads for the added risk. Silly I know, but what can I say.

Patterns that seem to work in my view are island tops and botttoms, Head and shoulders, double or triple tops usually hold true, but nothing is infallable. There are probably others. Channels, triangles and a retest of the breakout sometimes work out in my favor.

I guess I don't thow anything out, but don't pull the trigger just based upon one signal or pattern. I like to see at least three confirming one another. Market direction is useful, but there are always stocks out there that are contrary to the market.

Coytee, I may take you up on your offer. I swear I can look at some indicators and not see the trees for the forest sometimes, which is why I posted. I like to think I have a good eye in spotting changes, but have been known to miss the obvious.

[tom67]

I'm hearing about the "half back" theory from my friends.....that is that they are waiting to see if the market makes it half way back to 14,000 and they will be selling....I suspect this will be happening for a few years. In addition, the "baby boomers" are the largest group in American history and they are starting to retire.....they will be net sellers, not buyers...it does not look good

[artto]

Rockets, I’m just shooting the dark here because I don’t
know you very well, so my comments are based solely on what you’ve said so far.

I don’t put much weight in “technical indicators” any more
(not to be confused with technical analysis). The fact of the matter is most
technical indicators are essentially the same, just variations on a theme. I now cringe every time I see people mention
Stochastic Oscillator this or MACD that. Many indicators, such as
Fibonacci retracements are not even “testable”. Almost all are just some form of
and/or combination of moving averages.

A trader I know (and mentor) with many years more experience
in systems development than I said the following:

"The trading business is one of the few that
is driven almost completely

by anecdotal evidence. I saw big foot in the
charts. There’s a UFO in

the price data, and it comes back to earth
every time I see that pattern.

The problem with pattern recognition is
patterns are everywhere and

everyone who looks at one sees something different.
Just ask any

psychiatrist!"

"The first time I looked at a Gann Chart,
read about Elliot Waves and

saw a Murrey Math setup, I was pretty sure
if making money was this

hard, no one was making any."

"No wonder so many people are looking for a
mechanical system. When

I see charts like the ones I just mentioned,
my eyes roll back in my

head. Then there is Thomas Bulkowski, who
writes dictionary size

books on chart patterns. Well, how can I win
if I have to learn

everything in a chart-reading encyclopedia?
Ah, luckily Ed Downs

recognized my problem and wrote 7 Chart
Patterns That Consistently

Make Money. Certainly I can learn 7 chart patterns! And I intend to as

soon as Downs
figures out which 7 actually work and work

consistently."

The problem (if I may call it that) with
your approach is that it appears you don’t have any consistent approach to what you are doing ~ there’s no strategy,
and no system or procedures in place, which essentially means you don’t have
the capacity to search for and find “the right stuff”.

For instance, an entry signal based RSI,
Stochastics or TRIX, are all measuring the same thing ~ velocity. It’s like
having three speedometers, one with miles per hour, one with kilometers per
hour, and another with miles per minute. They are all measuring the same thing,
and telling you the same thing, so what’s the point? Of course they all confirm
each other! It tells you nothing.

You said “Market direction is useful, but
there are always stocks contrary to the market”. So what? Who cares? If you’re
going to utilize that kind of strategy, then those are the ones you should be
short (contrary) when the rest of the market is going up, and you should choose
the weakest ones. How are you determining which are the weakest (or strongest)?
Market direction is PARAMOUNT
to your trading success. It’s the very reason you can throw a dart at a WSJ
list of stocks and make money (for a while) when the market is going up. The
point is if you’re not in the strongest components ~ you are only realizing a
small portion of the profits you could be making.

Let me give you a real life example of what
you are doing. I made the same mistake you are making, except it was magnified
by the fact that I was short, so the memory of the pain has never left
(hopefully never will).

I was big into nanotechnology. One company,
Nanophase which went public in 1997. I had daily data from its inception. I had
gone over its trading ranges with a fine tooth comb. I knew that even during
the tech boom NANX had a maximum gain during any up trend of 450%. It was spring
2003, and NANX was up a whooping 550%. Time to short, right? If you recall,
spring 2003 is when the market started to turn around ~ the broader market. But
nanotechnology is “different”. It sings to its own tune. Its new, it has its
own agenda, and its up way more in one run than its ever been.

To make a long story “short” so to speak, I
shorted at $5, it went up to $8, I shorted some more, and some more. I finally
covered at $14.50. The broader market direction was going UP. The market
breadth was IMPROVING. And I was short. STUPID.

Right now, short term, and intermediate
term, market conditions are neutral by any number of indicators, technical,
fundamental, sentiment, or whatever. Yes, as you said, it “looks like” we
should have a pullback here. But, we’re also coming off of one of the most
swift and severe downturns in history. When a trending market keeps on trending
despite being “overbought” or “oversold”, it usually keeps right on going even
though the indicators would have you believe otherwise, especially when coming
off of extreme conditions as we have. And how strong will the pullback be? Will
it be enough to be tradable? There the old saying on Wall St “never short a dull market”, and
that’s kind of where we’ve been since the beginning of May.

I don’t like bragging, but I like to give
you a real life example. My wife inherited a beneficiary IRA last year from her
father. The starting statement, when we took possession and could make changes
was October, 2008. I made substantial allocation changes to the funds dad had
been in. Since then the account is up 30%. Now, consider that this was
accomplished during one of the worst stock market downturns in U.S. history.
If I left things the way dad’s financial advisor had him set up – lots of
diversification, the account would have lost between 50% and 70% of its value.

Yes, there are contrary places in the
market, but how do you determine where that is, and which are the strongest (or
weakest)?