Hurricane Season - 2010

[Groomlakearea51]

Second thread as the first one was "eaten" and is pending "moderator approval".... How in the heck it would need approval I don't know, but oh well. When it appears it will have the links to information sources for those members interested in watching the saga unfold.

In any event, there is a system in the Atlantic that is supposed to die off, but could head further northwest and bring heavy rains;

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE LOW IS DRIFTING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND GALE FORCE WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the track models:

[Groomlakearea51]

In case the first thread does not get "moderator" approval for a while, there is a system forming in the east Pacific which could.... cross back over to the gulf. Not likely, but you never know...

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the analysis from the NHC:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 26 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Groomlakearea51]

And the track forecasts; note that UKMET (the Brits...) forecast the track to come back across... The UKMET tracks have usually been the more "dire prediction". I think they do it to scare us.... LOLOL!!!

[LarryC]

Second thread as the first one was "eaten" and is pending "moderator approval".... How in the heck it would need approval I don't know, but oh well.

This might be why: http://forums.klipsch.com/forums/t/133256.aspx

[Bill H.]

Thanks.

1. Maybe it was the overusage of CAPS that triggered the "Approval"...........

2. George Carlin " There's a low over Canada, and a HIGH over Mexico "...................

[CECAA850]

And it starts...........................

My mind reels when I think of a hurricane in the Gulf and the environmental disaster that's currently happening out there. So many scenarios and none of them good.

[ZAKO]

I shudder to think the worse,,,,PLUG THAT DAMN OIL WELL!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Groomlakearea51]

Second thread as the first one was "eaten" and is pending "moderator approval".... How in the heck it would need approval I don't know, but oh well.

This might be why: http://forums.klipsch.com/forums/t/133256.aspx

Problem is I cannot "retrieve it" to delink the URL's (Just means to go those reference sites you would cut and paste.... But I don't think there were 10 links; maybe 5-6, I cannot remember things as well as I could when I was younger, as in yesterday......

[dtel]

Things have been busy, it's hot, I have alot of things to do, I am tired today, the sun is shining.

Is that enough excuses to just call off the hurricane season this year and play like it is not here already ? [:S]

[CECAA850]

I cannot remember things as well as I could when I was younger, as in yesterday......

Must be the tiny head.

[Olorin]

I wouldn't worry about it. I mean, anyone who watches The History Channel knows that HAARP will soon put a blocking high over Florida and all the hurricanes will just bounce harmlessly into the Atlantic. Or Cuba.

[Groomlakearea51]

Today's "Tiny Talking Head Extreme Weather Outlook"......

While the NHC gave up on issuing any bulletins on Tuesday, the system off the coast of North Florida/ Georgia is still hanging out... so to speak. The computer tracks have changed with two of the model tracks bringing it into Florida.... Oh well...

[Groomlakearea51]

Meanwhile the mess off the coast of Central America is further developing. Good news is that the tracks generally now push away from crossing back over into the Gulf. Here's the NHC's estimate:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 27 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the Track Models:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here;s the MILSAT picture as of this morning:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi?ATCF_NAME=ep902010.gif&SENSOR=&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&SIZE=full&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Active&DIR=/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc10/EPAC/90E.INVEST/ssmi/ir1km&CURRENT=20100527.1215.goes-13.ir.90E.INVEST.25kts.1006mb.12.5N.94.7W.100pc.jpg&YEAR=2010&MO=May&BASIN=EPAC&STORM_NAME=90E.INVEST&STYLE=table&ACTIVES=10-EPAC-90E.INVEST,10-ATL-90L.INVEST,10-WPAC-93W.INVEST,10-SHEM-98S.INVEST,'>

[Groomlakearea51]

A beautiful (in some ways...) MILSAT picture of the system off the east coast.

[Groomlakearea51]

Well today's the day. The NHC issued it's "we're in mortal danger" statement today at 10:00 AM;

Here's the synopsis:

An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

• 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

• Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
• Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
• High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

"FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we're prepared for hurricane season," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it's important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can't control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you're ready."

[]

Generator test today..... Lemme see here. No spending any money on any stereo hobby for the next 6 months; stock up on bottled water, canned soup, barbecue charcoal, extra tarps, ~24 gallons of gasoline in 5 gallon containers (minimum...). make sure every vehicle is fully fueled at all times.

I hate this.... If the real estate market ever gets back in shape, I'm moving......

[Groomlakearea51]

The NHC estimate of likely travel across....