CECAA850 Posted June 23, 2010 Share Posted June 23, 2010 You HAD to have had a hand in that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 23, 2010 Author Share Posted June 23, 2010 Yup! All three.... [Y][Y][Y] [H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 NHC has upgraded (again...) the possibility that the system will develop. And will send an USAF recon flight to look at it. TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANAIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 The official graphic..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 The small picture..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 The big picture..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 And the track plots........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 24, 2010 Author Share Posted June 24, 2010 Edited: Info on track modeling covered in other posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 25, 2010 Author Share Posted June 25, 2010 It has begun it's strengthening...... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 25, 2010 Author Share Posted June 25, 2010 The big picture... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 25, 2010 Author Share Posted June 25, 2010 And the ominous turn will begin..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 25, 2010 Author Share Posted June 25, 2010 Well, this does not help at all..... Another one out there. Supposedly not going to form into anything significant, but that's what they always say.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 25, 2010 Share Posted June 25, 2010 If you live on the west Florida coast, best buy a bunch of detergent and paint. If that TD develops and takes an easterly course your gonna have oil splatter all over your houses... Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted June 25, 2010 Moderators Share Posted June 25, 2010 OK dumb question for the day..........I am good at dumb questions..[Y] I know storm surge or wind can put oil on land, but can lighter oil or other chemicals from the oil be picked up through the normal cycle which causes rain ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 25, 2010 Author Share Posted June 25, 2010 Short answer is no. Very unlikely for the reasons discussed in this NHC Fact Sheet. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdf Lemme' put it this way.... if it goes up to you and then turns around and comes back to me, I am not going to buy 50 gallons of Palmolive Penguin Soap for the house...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted June 25, 2010 Share Posted June 25, 2010 I know storm surge or wind can put oil on land, but can lighter oil or other chemicals from the oil be picked up through the normal cycle which causes rain ? Marshall provided a good link, but to keep it simple rainwater is essentially distilled water. Whatever contaminants it contains it picks up from the atmosphere. Make sense? Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldtimer Posted June 25, 2010 Share Posted June 25, 2010 Besides groom, it's Dawn you'd be buyin'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators dtel Posted June 25, 2010 Moderators Share Posted June 25, 2010 Make sense Yep, I was just wondering because if something floats it's lighter than water and I was thinking it may evaporate into the atmosphere like water.........but glad to hear differently. We don't really need it to also rain any more chemicals than it does already. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 The Saturday line-up.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted June 26, 2010 Author Share Posted June 26, 2010 The yellow blob story..... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE...LOCATED ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. 1. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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