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Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019


Mallette

Autonomous Vehicles: Good or Bad  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. Are autonomous vehicles a good witch, or a bad witch?

    • Good
      20
    • Bad
      28


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24 minutes ago, Mallette said:

Pretty amazing, eh?

Not really.  I know what current cars are capable of.  I know what breaks.  I know a blob of mud can render a sensor and system useless.  I know that sensors can become out of alignment.  I know low voltage can cause irrational readings.  I know enough not to want one.

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7 minutes ago, CECAA850 said:

I know enough not to want one.

Well, different strokes.  Looking forward to mine.  You just keep stopping and going in traffic jams manually as long as the law allows.  I am ready to sit back and let the machine do the work of the machine while I do the work of man.

 

Dave

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15 minutes ago, Mallette said:

Well, different strokes.  Looking forward to mine.  You just keep stopping and going in traffic jams manually as long as the law allows.  I am ready to sit back and let the machine do the work of the machine while I do the work of man.

 

Dave

I thought AVs were supposed to eliminate traffic jams.

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22 minutes ago, Mallette said:

Not until we get you guys on horseback off the roads...

 

Dave

This where we are today.  A very positive reality.

 

https://media.audiusa.com/models/piloted-driving

 

It won't result in lower insurance premiums or less congestion.   

 

My prediction is that the day you can watch tv or sleep in your A/V as it cruises down the road is about 2030.

 

The car Dave originally envisioned in this thread will be here about 2025.  The car that is currently being described as "autonomous" existed before this thread was started.

 

I predict Klipsch will develop and release a 3rd version of the Forte in the near future.

 

I also predict we will have an approved and available Level 4 car by 2025 and we will start to see a gradual reduction in insurance premiums and traffic congestion by 2030.

 

Lastly, I predict that we will never be able to legally operate our cars while asleep during our lifetimes, which is very sad.

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15 hours ago, CECAA850 said:

You can't have it both ways.  It's either  fully autonomous or its not for the sake of this argument.  There are certain levels of automatic safeguards built into many vehicles now days that act without driver input.

He's back to a level 2 car which existed prior to his first post.

 

They created a standard with levels 0 to 5 for this very reason, anyone can predict a moving target (the blind archer analogy).  

 

 

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So here is another one of my predictions.  When we get to the point of a real autonomous vehicle (Level 4), and there is thought to making that mandatory in every vehicle sold to start to realize the virtues that Dave has artfully suggested (safety, efficiency, etc.), there will be a massive effort by the Texas toll road companies to block level 4 cars from being legal on Texas roads.

 

The toll road from San Antonio around Austin is privately owned, financed by the state (read you and me).  That means they want and need congestion.  They came close to defaulting a couple of years ago because not enough people were initially using it.

 

 

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I'm sticking with my prediction and the others are recorded here will still be around to check out in a few years.  Certainly Elon Musk sees fully autonomous trucks in 2 years...much more difficult than cars.  Perhaps you guys are smarter than him...but I'm putting my bets on Elon.

 

Dave

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39 minutes ago, Mallette said:

I'm sticking with my prediction and the others are recorded here will still be around to check out in a few years.  Certainly Elon Musk sees fully autonomous trucks in 2 years...much more difficult than cars.  Perhaps you guys are smarter than him...but I'm putting my bets on Elon.

 

Dave

Depends on what your definition of "autonomous " is.  Pick a number 0 to 5 and stick with it, keeping in mind that 3, 4 and 5 require approval at state and local level.  

 

My prediction on 18 wheelers being level 3 And ON THE ROAD is 2025, level 4 is 2035 (or 5 years after 50 percent of passenger vehicles on road are level 4, and Level 5 after 2050).

 

 

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Predict I will be long in the ground,  thankfully, before these "advancements" take hold. But for my negativity with the subject the positive is more texting and Facebooking during the transportation of your then soulless, fully electronically controlled and monitored being..Yeeeaaahhh - sounds life the "perfect" life we humans have long been seeking. Note to my funeral director -- please have my casket linclude autonomous directional digging instructions and full functioning GPS. I may need a directional change mid-flight. Kind of an oxymoron I guess - from one autonomous casket to another. 

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23 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

My prediction on 18 wheelers being level 3 And ON THE ROAD is 2025, level 4 is 2035 (or 5 years after 50 percent of passenger vehicles on road are level 4, and Level 5 after 2050).

Pretty close now.

https://www.cat.com/en_US/by-industry/mining/surface-mining/surface-technology/command/command-for-hauling.html

 

https://www.asirobots.com/mining/?_vsrefdom=adwords&gclid=CjwKCAiAu4nRBRBKEiwANms5W-C7fo2SlDkpWtbqcQ0cKQ8jkmot1XFehk_TTqcS6TYfIg52ZnUS2RoC35cQAvD_BwE

 

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603170/mining-24-hours-a-day-with-robots/

 

Actually quite a few more...including Elon's 2 year plan...but enough for the moment and this is EXISTING tech.  

 

Dave

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10 minutes ago, Mallette said:

Licensed and approved for the highway.

 

They have been using driverless forklifts in warehouses for over a decade.  

 

They currently don't have the GPU power for a passenger car, let alone an 18 wheeler.

 

Let me know when one is commercially available and on the road you and I share.

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And yet, it's working just fine in those applications.  Certainly accidents where million dollar trucks fall down hundreds of feet or collide with each other would be problematic...yet it either doesn't happen or is unreported.  

 

Yes, beating a dead horse here where some are concerned so will simply hold and wait on the inevitable and plan my new car purchase for 2 years from now.  Will let it take you for a ride, Travis while we play with the audio system.  

 

Dave

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1 hour ago, CECAA850 said:

There are far fewer variables in those applications than in automotive traffic.

But mostly the same and a great lab to correct issues given the miles driven.  And, while human life is not much at stake the value of the equipment is incredible and therefore very little risk is acceptable.

 

Dave

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10 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

 

They have been using driverless forklifts in warehouses for over a decade.  

 

 

I know someone who has a personal story about a man who was killed by one and was quite traumatized to witness the aftermath.  I can't say much about it other than he went into an area that he shouldn't have... thought he had time I guess... got between the vehicle and a "pinch point" which resulted in his death.  Perhaps a human driver would have stopped.  More people will die before all the blind spots or flaws are found in your automated vehicles.  I believe that accidents can be avoided but some are tougher challenges than others.   

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Having taught forklift operations to some 4k or more roughnecks and reviewed accidents in my own company and nationwide in developing training, I can say with authority that the human operated forklift is responsible for more accidents than any other vehicle in industry.  Last year I checked in excess of 100k.  I have zero doubts that autonomous or semi-autonomous forklifts would decrease this dramatically.  Greatest number of fatalities is due to failure to consult the load chart (autonomous would NEVER fail to do that) followed by pinch points...also something an autonomous machine would check in all directions.  We had one operator die when he stepped into a pinch point from the forklift after failing to set the brake and switch it off.  Very dumb, very dead.

 

Dave

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It is my understanding that fork lift operators at soda companies get paid by how many trucks they load per hour. They drive those things flat out with full loads hour upon hour and you don't dare walk past the yellow lines in their lanes or you will die and your body will be pushed to the side because it's in the way.

JJK

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