Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019

[Mallette]

1 hour ago, JJkizak said:

Military search and fire control radars and 100K klystron transmitters. Western Electric carrier equipment and microwave line of sight systems.

JJ, we're mental matches.  First computer I ever used was an Altair in 1976.  Built a Sinclair a couple of years later, and my entire career was in advanced simulations and code.  I have, and still do, design and build my own computers.  Designed and built the first Windows based no moving parts computer for the company I worked for before retiring that rather wowed the IT department. 

And I HATE "smart" phones.  I feel like everyone around me is a slave walking around staring at those things.  I carry mine nowhere unless there is a compelling reason.  Switching to a flip phone soon, but I DO want voice to text.  But that's all.  

Dave

[JJkizak]

2 hours ago, vasubandu said:

@JJkizak You really ought to think about a flip phone.  They were the perfect design. Fit in your pocket without pressing buttons, worked as a phone since that what phones are.  I prefer some of the older ones, which you can get sharply on eBay.  for a long time, I went back and forth between a flip phone and a smart phone with the settings, but they changed it so now i have to call customer service, and I quit.

 

If you care, this site lists what is out there right now.

https://www.wirefly.com/guides/best-flip-phones

 

 

First impressions of that website was "No operating system" on the flip phones and about 22 million selections.

JJK

[DrWho]

41 minutes ago, Mallette said:

Mike, I may not be in your IQ territory but I did get my grad degree with a 3.8 and honors.  I have a 70.00 surveillance camera that's worked flawless for a long time.  I just retired a Garmin GPS unit I used for 17 years without a burp. 

This has little to do with IQ - maybe more to do with cognitive bias? You should know better than to ascribe this personal experience to your understanding of the entire automotive industry. The failure rate of sensors is a measurable fact - you always tout being data driven. Why not here?

 

On the subject of anecdotal experiences....I don't own a car with a backup camera, but I can easily cite dozens of experiences with others having a backup camera obstructed for some reason (usually environmental). It's not a big deal with a human driver because we still have mirrors and a human in control - every time I see something like that, I think about how an AV would try to cope with what I see on the screen. Would you be comfortable with a human driver with a similar amount of interference on their vision? Would you put your child in a car seat in that car knowing that's how the computer is seeing the world? I wouldn't. So ya - throw in the Lidar or whatever other fancy redundancy....they all have their blind spots, and it's more often than you might think.

 

Since it came up, cognitive bias has been a study of mine for the last 2 years or so. I went through this Wikipedia list, one at a time:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

It's fascinating to understand where our perspectives and emotional responses come from. I started off with the goal of freeing myself from bias, but that's simply impossible - nor ideal actually. It's best to understand when it happens, and then be open-minded in those situations.

[DrWho]

double post.

[Travis In Austin]

1 hour ago, Mallette said:

But by a couple of years from now I'll be able to suck a bong, crack a beer, or take a nap in complete security while my auto takes me where I want to go

No, in a couple of years you will be able to go to a designated test city and bring a bong (if the test city is in CA or CO), and beer and whisky, you will be able to hail it and have it take it where you want to go. (I don't know if Chevy Bolt's have a back seat to take a nap in). 

 

Once they get data from that then they can go to next approval level and then sell you one.  In the meantime, Congress has to pass legislation to preempt state regulation of AV's so that one standard emerges for highway approval and then they will start selling them to you and me so then we can smoke a bong, drink a beer and take a nap in the back while it drives us to where we want to go.

[DrWho]

1 hour ago, Mallette said:

And will be considered rather crude in a couple of years.  Moore's Law is now in hyperdrive...

Dave

Moore's ceased to be true a while ago.

[Travis In Austin]

2 minutes ago, DrWho said:

Since it came up, cognitive bias has been a study of mine for the last 2 years or so.

It is a fundamental in being able to design and implement tests involving audio products.

 

 

[DrWho]

2 hours ago, vasubandu said:

@DrWho The point you are making is valid, and perhaps the predictions are overly optimistic, but the miles they have racked up are impressive, and the people behind this seem to have thought of everything.  Some of those parts would be self-healing, and the vehicles would detect any problem immediately.  People really just do not understand what the combination of artificial intelligence and quantum computing are going to do.  I remember the days of the i486 processor and everyone said that we were done, that we had as much processing power as we needed.  A 486 was capable of 50 million operations per second.  Nvidia's latest process, the Pegasus can do 320 trillion operations per second.  Maybe to but it in better perspective, the current top Intel processor, the i7-8700K can do 5.733 billion floating point operations per second and 22.15 billion integer  operations per second.  Let's give it the benefit of the doubt.  The Nvidia Pegasus is 14,000 times faster than the fastest desktop processor.  

 

Based on my current occupation, I think I might be fairly in the loop in regards to cutting edge electronics - especially in the computing space 

 

I would like to posit that focusing on operations per second is the wrong way to go about understanding computing performance - not that it's a totally useless metric, but it has little bearing on the actual final result. Just like putting a million horsepower in a car with Prius tires doesn't make any sense. It's the total solution that matters - not some arbitrary spec Most of the computing performance today gets wasted by sloppy programming. We did more with lessor processors in the past because we actually engineered the performance out of those chips. We're not touching the capability of the modern chipsets....we're just making it easier to write code. I wonder how much energy we waste every year on unnecessary computer cycles? Now that'd be a fun metric to calculate out.....I bet it's a huge number.

[DrWho]

4 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

It is a fundamental in being able to design and implement tests involving audio products.

 

 

That's actually what prompted my study....the funny thing is I've concluded that we should embrace our audio biases. The thing about placebo effects is that the experience is entirely real for the end user. Shouldn't we be elated that they can get the same experience with a sugar pill and none of the other nasty side effects? The human experience is more than the mere physical realm, and we should embrace the biases that allow that to happen. Although we as engineers need to understand when that's happening - and really we should engineer both the physical reality and the biased perception at the same time.

[Travis In Austin]

3 minutes ago, DrWho said:

Shouldn't we be elated that they can get the same experience with a sugar pill and none of the other nasty side effects?

Yes with audio.  But with medicine the analogy doesn't hold.

 

That automation bias is a bummer isn't it?

[Mallette]

1 hour ago, DrWho said:

Moore's ceased to be true a while ago.

Yes, I know.  The actual speed of progress is much higher...

Dave

[Mallette]

1 hour ago, DrWho said:

Most of the computing performance today gets wasted by sloppy programming.

I believe that is what I said.  Programming has really deteriorated.  As to cognitive bias, that is a charge that cannot be leveled by you to me or vice versa.  I believe my evaluations to be objective, as do you.  I look at history first, then tech, then business conditions.  All the tech issues you mention and the business and legal issues Travis bring up are valid...except when the economic benefits are so massive that as more understand they are willing to stick their necks out to make massive profits.  That is what is at stake here.  The greatest economic bonanza since Henry Ford and far greater in its change of the world as we know it.  

 

This isn't Dave's fantasy...it's how business works.  When there is this much at stake NOTHING will stop it.  It will happen faster than you believe and faster than I have said.  

 

Dave

[Travis In Austin]

2 hours ago, DrWho said:

Although we as engineers need to understand when that's happening - and really we should engineer both the physical reality and the biased perception at the same time.

Someone already did that:

 

 

 

First Edgar Vilchur and Henry Kross

 

Then

 

Dr. Anwar Bose

[Travis In Austin]

40 minutes ago, Mallette said:

I believe that is what I said.  Programming has really deteriorated.  As to cognitive bias, that is a charge that cannot be leveled by you to me or vice versa.  I believe my evaluations to be objective, as do you.  I look at history first, then tech, then business conditions.  All the tech issues you mention and the business and legal issues Travis bring up are valid...except when the economic benefits are so massive that as more understand they are willing to stick their necks out to make massive profits.  That is what is at stake here.  The greatest economic bonanza since Henry Ford and far greater in its change of the world as we know it.  

 

This isn't Dave's fantasy...it's how business works.  When there is this much at stake NOTHING will stop it.  It will happen faster than you believe and faster than I have said.  

 

Dave

Elon Musk is at about car 2000 of over 200,000 pre-ordered.  He has to pump out a lot more (what's the number 500,000 a year) to break even.   His car with auto pilot and 300 mile battery costs 50K.  (The extended range option from 200 miles to 300+ is  9K). He can't do it quick enough.  There are 50 million cars that commute daily.  That doesn't include work trucks, delivery, and motor freight. He is a good way off, along with the stockholders of that company, in making any profits.  

 

It looks like GM is first to seek licensure.   It will start to accelerate once you get them on the road and available to public.

 

I'm not sure when the savings will kick in.  2,000 in insurance savings a year (assuming that is the savings) isn't going to create long lines at auto dealers if it costs 50K.

 

As I said about 30 or 40 pages ago, in order to see rapid growth in AV sales and usage by the typical consumer, it is going to require a tax credit by Congress.  That is what caused an explosion in Prius sales.  

 

For business it will be allowing a 179 deduction for purchase or lease of AVs as opposed to having to depreciate them.

 

But they have to be available first.  Maybe a Bolt will be available in 2019 and legal to drive (operate) in multiple states, with Ford right behind.  They can tool up and pump out the cars.

 

GM'S ability to mass produced cars will allow them to offer a much cheaper alternative to the Tesla.  If that's the case, Tesla will be forced into the mid-range to luxury market where they have been an exclusive player for electric vehicles.  If Audi comes on line at the time that Tesla is ready to deliver it is going to be very competitive in that market segment.  It will be very interesting to see that all unfold.

 

We shall see.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Travis In Austin]

I forgot another means to convert entire country to electric AV.  You could do it in 5 years.

 

Phase in an increase on gas tax, 50 cents per year.

 

That would pay for tax credit, and infrastructure repair and improvements.

[Mallette]

5 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

Elon Musk is at about car 2000 of over 200,000 pre-ordered. 

fucryin' out loud, Travis.  Look at what you quoted.  Musk is a brilliant inventor...but manufacturing is a different discipline and building the incredible designs he's conceived is tantamount to what Ford went through before building the Rouge River plant that took in iron ore at one end and output model T's at the other.  It isn't what he's produced at this point that counts, it's the clear massive demand for what you consider a fantasy that counts.

 

9 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

GM'S ability to mass produced cars will allow them to offer a much cheaper alternative to the Tesla. 

Looking forward to this.  They don't have a worth S3 competitor yet...but I'd love to see it happen.

Dave

[Mallette]

4 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

Phase in an increase on gas tax, 50 cents per year.

 

That would pay for tax credit, and infrastructure repair and improvements.

Given AVs will make the existing road system overbuilt, what is your tax increase for?  

Dave

[Travis In Austin]

10 minutes ago, Mallette said:

Looking forward to this.  They don't have a worth S3 competitor yet...but I'd love to see it happen.

Dave

You need to get updated facts.   Bolt is outselling S3 9 to 1 over last five months.  That is today right now.  Why?  It's 10K cheaper.  Unlike Tesla, GM can deliver theirs.

 

 

 

 

[vasubandu]

3 hours ago, DrWho said:

That's actually what prompted my study....the funny thing is I've concluded that we should embrace our audio biases. The thing about placebo effects is that the experience is entirely real for the end user. Shouldn't we be elated that they can get the same experience with a sugar pill and none of the other nasty side effects? The human experience is more than the mere physical realm, and we should embrace the biases that allow that to happen. Although we as engineers need to understand when that's happening - and really we should engineer both the physical reality and the biased perception at the same time.

 

@DrWho You do know that the physical reality is just a perception, right?  There is an awesome Ted Talk I need to find on that.  And oddly, placebos can have side effects too, even nasty ones. But I think your actual point is well taken.  We should not assume that technically perfect is the right answer.

[vasubandu]

33 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

Phase in an increase on gas tax, 50 cents per year.

 

That would pay for tax credit, and infrastructure repair and improvements.

 

You may have forgotten, but we once had $5 gas in this country, and no one quit driving.  Gas is half that. If you want that effect, you need a $5 gas tax.