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Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019


Mallette

Autonomous Vehicles: Good or Bad  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. Are autonomous vehicles a good witch, or a bad witch?

    • Good
      20
    • Bad
      28


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34 minutes ago, vasubandu said:

 

You may have forgotten, but we once had $5 gas in this country, and no one quit driving.  Gas is half that. If you want that effect, you need a $5 gas tax.

It was $4 in Texas,  truck and  Suv sales plummeted,  Hybrids skyrocketed.  No one can quit driving, but they drive way less.  Everyone was adding a fuel surcharge to their bills.  People cut back on a lot.

 

It isn't whether they will drive or not, it is consumer economics.  If the govt will give you a tax credit of 7500 towards a car, and you can cut you energy bill by 100 or 200 per month in commuting costs you are going to move over to an electric AV car much quicker.  $5 a gallon may be the magic number, but it would have to be phased in to have the desired effect of shifting peogle from their regular cars to EV with AV capability.  They wouldn't have much trade in, the value of any vehicle without EV or AV would plumment.Meaning very limited trade in value if any.  

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Many posts, IMO, fail to grasp the coming paradigm shift away from personal vehicle ownership.  When AV technology is fully implemented, it will be unnecessary to own a car that needs to be insured, serviced, stored, and which sits in your driveway depreciating, when not in use.

 

While you’re doing the triple S, a car is on it’s way to your door to take you wherever. On the way, you read, work, sleep etc.  Traffic will flow smoothly and safely without traffic jams.

 

What is the genesis of a traffic jam?  Most rush-hour traffic jams are caused by impatient and inconsiderate drivers who stay in the “fast” lanes until the last possible moment before forcing their way to the right to exit, which slows the traffic in the lane they’re leaving as well as the lanes they cross and the lane they seek.  If drivers would plan ahead and accelerate into open spaces when changing lanes, rather than slowing to change lanes, traffic jams would be vastly reduced.  

 

If you’ve driven in Europe, you’ve had a small taste of how traffic flows when drivers actually keep right except while actually overtaking, whereupon they immediately move back to the right to keep the left lane available for overtaking.  Opels do not camp in the fast lanes with cruise controls set at the speed limit, taking minutes to pass a lorrie.   When overtaking, the Opel driver plans ahead, checks the mirrors and accelerates around the lorrie as quickly as possible before moving back to the right.  The pass is delayed if a Ferrari or big Benz is already in the fast lane and bearing down.  EVERYONE stays out of the fast lanes except while actually overtaking.

 

Nascar provides a model.  Bumper to bumper traffic moves at high speeds.  Lane changes are made frequently by accelerating into gaps.

 

With AV technology, the “safety” factor of putting 98# soccer moms in Escalades so they can survive encounters with Bubbas in Ram diesel duallys will be unnecessary.  Small cars will rarely make contact with each other.  The savings in time, lives, space and resources will be tremendous.

 

Individual car ownership could still exist, but it would be for recreation, not transportation.  I am an auto enthusiast.  I built the Buick V8 powered sports car in my avatar.  It’s brutal acceleration and 1G on a skid pad handling were unusable on the street.  I’d be perfectly happy calling for a Chevy Bolt to collect me to take me to a track where I could drive my sports car to it’s full potential.

 

Stop thinking in terms of your car.  It’s not that you need to be prohibited from personal ownership, but the savings of lives, time, energy, money, and space will make private vehicle ownership expensive, unnecessary and undesirable.

 

Autonomous cars can’t get here soon enough.  The lives lost in the meanwhile are a terrible waste.  The waste of time, energy, and money, while significant, pales in comparison to the loss of life.

 

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1 hour ago, DizRotus said:

It’s not that you need to be prohibited from personal ownership, but the savings of lives, time, energy, money, and space will make private vehicle ownership expensive, unnecessary and undesirable.

True.  I often use the saying, "The best pool is your friend's pool."  Let them deal with the cost and headache of ownership.  I just want to use it now and then.

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11 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

olt is outselling S3 9 to 1 over last five months.

And many other cars outsell the Bolt...I said "worthy" competitor.  S3 has the hardware for autonomy, don't think the Bolt does, and I'd trust Tesla engineering over GM.  All personal opinion, granted, but some of it is fact.

 

Dave

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10 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

If the govt will give you a tax credit of 7500 towards a car, and you can cut you energy bill by 100 or 200 per month in commuting costs you are going to move over to an electric AV car much quicker.

That incentive will grow as the government(s) wake up to the realities of electric AVs.  I think our love affair with the infernal combustion engine is over, except for hobbyists.  I know I can't wait to see the south side of it.  Actually, I think it possible that AVs could be subsidized far more than that as they realize that putting the billions being spent on highway expansion into them is a better investment.

 

Dave

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3 hours ago, DizRotus said:

If you’ve driven in Europe, you’ve had a small taste of how traffic flows when drivers actually keep right except while actually overtaking, whereupon they immediately move back to the right to keep the left lane available for overtaking.  Opels do not camp in the fast lanes with cruise controls set at the speed limit, taking minutes to pass a lorrie.   When overtaking, the Opel driver plans ahead, checks the mirrors and accelerates around the lorrie as quickly as possible before moving back to the right.  The pass is delayed if a Ferrari or big Benz is already in the fast lane and bearing down.  EVERYONE stays out of the fast lanes except while actually overtaking.

Great post, Neil!  All well said.  As to the above, I've said for years that the laws should be changed here such that failure to yield to oncoming traffic in the right lane should be law enforcement's first job on the highways.  When confronted with a car like yours doing a 100mph in the right lane but doing so safely and a car refusing to yield they should go after the road hog first.  It is these people who cause most of the wrecks.  Let another officer get the speeder but get that road hog first!  In Texas we had many incidents of these folks taking a bullet to the back of the head from an enraged driver and we ALL have experienced rage at these dolts.  Anyway, that problem will go away with AVs.  

 

Dave

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58 minutes ago, Mallette said:

And many other cars outsell the Bolt...I said "worthy" competitor.  S3 has the hardware for autonomy, don't think the Bolt does, and I'd trust Tesla engineering over GM.  All personal opinion, granted, but some of it is fact.

That's been my point in the past.  When this thing rolls out, it's not going to be just Tesla in the market.  You'll have GM, Fiat and everybody else making these things.  Everyone will have their own platform.  Most people will price shop and buy the cheapest AV's they can.  It'll be a cluster for several years during the transition.

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35 minutes ago, CECAA850 said:

Most people will price shop and buy the cheapest AV's they can.

 

Ultimately, most people won’t need to own any AV.  The cheapest AV will be the one you call and use when you need it, and then watch it drive to it’s next user.

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41 minutes ago, CECAA850 said:

It'll be a cluster for several years during the transition.

Let the competition begin!  Good for all of us.  While clearly a huge fan of Musk and his tech, I'll certainly study the situation when I am ready to purchase.  Right now, Tesla is the only one that meets my price/performance goals.  And having a free supercharger 5 minutes away clinches the deal.  

 

Dave

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5 minutes ago, DizRotus said:

I read that there are more horses in the US today than were alive at the dawn of automobiles.  How many are being used for transportation?

They are out on farms and such.  The reports at the turn of the 19th of the stench and expense of cleaning up tons per day of horse manure from streets is amazing.  Interesting that we switched from a plague of horse manure to darn near asphyxiating from car exhaust.  

Dave

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2 hours ago, Mallette said:

And many other cars outsell the Bolt...I said "worthy" competitor.  S3 has the hardware for autonomy, don't think the Bolt does, and I'd trust Tesla engineering over GM.  All personal opinion, granted, but some of it is fact.

 

Dave

I was.referring to all electric. (EV).  I don't think anyone is outselling Bolt right now which was very surprising to me.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Mallette said:

I have not heard that the Bolt is furnished ready for AV when activated.  So, doesn't count for me.

Dave

Neither is a Tesla (currently), and Bolts are still outselling Tesla 9 to 1.

 

They are the first, and only manufacture to apply for A/V approval on roads.  Limited to one City, in a hailing mode, and in a defined area.

 

GM is  ahead of Tesla on regulatory approval on true A/V and Ford is.right behind GM.  Tesla isnt.even in the race yet.

 

It's sad that they created demand for EV and then potential for A/V and they are now playing catch up. .Or they amay sitting on it waiting for GM and Ford to break regulatory ground.

 

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CES 2018 Report by Forbes.  Lyft offered rides with safety driver in BMW 5 series.

 

There is a lot going on.  Chips, sensors, etc.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2018/01/10/what-i-learned-about-self-driving-cars-at-ces-psst-theyre-almost-here/

 

Tesla wasn't there, but Mr. Toyota was.

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