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Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019


Mallette

Autonomous Vehicles: Good or Bad  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. Are autonomous vehicles a good witch, or a bad witch?

    • Good
      20
    • Bad
      28


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I hope that you guys know you are arguing over something that is never going to happen.  Mixing AV with normal cars to just too problematic and expensive to change.  We are going straight to autonomous flying vehicles.  You summon it with you smart phone and off it goes.  

 

https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/8/16613228/uber-flying-car-la-nasa-space-act

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarwantsingh/2017/06/05/flying-cars-from-fiction-to-reality/#5ce4e8464b46

 

https://www.grayscott.com/seriouswonder-//five-companies-dead-set-on-making-flying-cars-a-reality

 

https://www.fastcompany.com/40495128/airbus-reveals-its-autonomous-air-taxi-as-flight-tests-begin

 

Just sayin, let's not get bogged down in autonomous cars.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, vasubandu said:

We are going straight to autonomous flying vehicles.

One of the more distant hoped for technologies...but AVs are here now and even mixed with morons will do their best to take care of us.  I've follow the Moller and SoloTrek.  Moller is still in the "come real soon now" stage and SoloTrek folded due to lack of investors.  Any flying car has to be both full AV as well as affordable to acquire and operate.  While a futurist, I don't have fantasies and I see nothing in science or current tech to suggest a flying car in my lifetime...though I'd love to be proven wrong.  

 

There was poopooing of Hyperloop earlier in this thread.  However, at least two third party folks have accepted Musk's details and are building prototypes.  Virgin, no idiots, is one of them.  I suppose some of you are smarter than these folks.  We shall see.  

 

I recall the main argument of "What happens when one of these things fails?" came up and I thought, well, about the same as when a jumbo jet crashes...only a lot less often.  Must doesn't care about Hyperloop as it doesn't get him to Mars.  He's quite core business oriented.

Dave

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39 minutes ago, Mallette said:

https://www.tesla.com/autopilot  

This is a lie?

As to the Bolt, given the attitude here, not surprising they are selling more.  But that doesn't make it the better value, at least to me.  

Dave

It depends on what "self driving means."  As I mentioned about 20 to 30 posts ago, after the Flordia crash and death, Elon used to talk about Levels as recognized  and adopted by DOT.  Up to the crash he claimed they were a certain level, after the crash he dropped it a level in his remarks and said the drive was using the vehicle as a level X car when it was a level Y.  The NTSB report came out and said it was mostly driver error but Tesla was partially at fault for over selling it and not requiring periodic driver input.

 

There is no doubt in my mind his lawyers told him to keep his mouth shut about Levels.  He hasn't mentioned a level since then that I have seen and that web link to Tesla has no mention of Levels.

 

Why?  Because if you claim level 4 you have to be approved by DOT and the state you want to operate in.

 

Only one manufacturer has applied for Level 4 approval, GM.  It may even be Levsl 5.

 

GM, or Ford, or Toyota, any one of them could put him under by price compitition because he has lost the tech advantage, and he has hit some production snags. 

 

His government subsidy in the form of a $7500  tax credit is about to run out.

 

That.will put his S3 at 20K more than a Bolt. He is going to have to offer consumers something worth 20K, and right now it.isnt.looking like he will be offer them Level 4 sooner than GM or Ford.

 

 

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1 hour ago, vasubandu said:

I hope that you guys know you are arguing over something that is never going to happen.  Mixing AV with normal cars to just too problematic and expensive to change.  We are going straight to autonomous flying vehicles.  You summon it with you smart phone and off it goes.  

 

https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/8/16613228/uber-flying-car-la-nasa-space-act

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarwantsingh/2017/06/05/flying-cars-from-fiction-to-reality/#5ce4e8464b46

 

https://www.grayscott.com/seriouswonder-//five-companies-dead-set-on-making-flying-cars-a-reality

 

https://www.fastcompany.com/40495128/airbus-reveals-its-autonomous-air-taxi-as-flight-tests-begin

 

Just sayin, let's not get bogged down in autonomous cars.

 

 

I'd settle for an autonomous bartender and a Uber driver at this point.

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Current cost is $35,000.  It's worth more, IMHO.  No point in debating your levels as, while the hardware is there for total autonomy the software is not unlocked for the reasons you state.  All I've said is that it is autonomous ready, not AV as delivered at this point.  

 

Dave

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1 hour ago, Mallette said:

There was poopooing of Hyperloop earlier in this thread. 

 

Anyone who poo poos hyperloop is uninformed. The results so far are extremely promising, and they have not even started.  In my spare time, I am building a hyperloop station in my back yard. Build it and they will come, right?

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43 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

This is a lie?

 

Bolt outsold Tesla for the first time in October 2017.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/11/the-chevrolet-bolt-was-octobers-best-selling-ev-could-it-be-2017s/

 

It outsold the Model 3 before then, but not Tesla as a whole.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4103729-august-sales-chevrolet-bolt-ev-sold-tesla-model-3-tune-28-1

 

But let's face it, we're not talking setting the world on fire numbers "2,632 [Bolt] sold in September 

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/tesla-gm-lead-the-pack-when-it-comes-to-selling-evs-to-america/

 

However, there is no denying that Bolt has the momentum

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cant-catch-up-to-chevys-wildly-successful-bolt-2017-12

 

Then again, they are aimed at different markets, so maybe the whole comparison is unfair ("Hyundai outsells Cadillac!!!!!!!"). Since they are really not direct competitors for the most part, maybe it would be more relevant to look at their combined sales for an indication where the electric car market is headed.  Tons of demand if you can deliver a moderately priced vehicle that people can drive off the lot, backed by deep enthusiasm willing to put up money today and wait.  Electric cars have successfully invaded every segment of the market, and plainly are here to stay in some fashion or another.  Whether the deep pockets of traditional auto will squeeze out leaner newcomers remains to be seen.

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1 hour ago, Mallette said:

Current cost is $35,000.  It's worth more, IMHO.  No point in debating your levels as, while the hardware is there for total autonomy the software is not unlocked for the reasons you state.  All I've said is that it is autonomous ready, not AV as delivered at this point.  

 

Dave

You are.drinking the Kool-aid Dave, read the fine print before you lay your money down for pre-order.

 

It's 35K base, autopilot is 6K and the 300 mile battery 9K, thats 50K where I come from.

 

 

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This just arrived in my inbox.

 

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/01/why-analysts-put-gm-and-waymo-far-ahead-of-tesla-in-driverless-car-race/?amp=1

 

Tesla is tied for 18th in a 19 car race.

 

Waymo looks to have passed Ford.

 

I wasn't aware that Tesla dumped it's autopilot software developer after the fatal crash and has.to start from scratch in-house, no wonder they are lagging.

 

"Tesla is the only Silicon Valley company with significant experience manufacturing cars, so, in theory, it should be perfectly positioned to take advantage of the driverless trend. But that isn't how things have been playing out. Navigant actually ranks Tesla dead last, alongside Apple, out of 19 companies.

Tesla has struggled since ditching Mobileye"

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30 minutes ago, vasubandu said:

Airbus has operational models as do a few other people.  Remember Moore's law?  Well this is a lot faster.

The L1011 has technology to take off and land in the 1970s and actually did on a flight with no commercial passenvers with FAA approval.

 

A commercial passenger.airplane actually flying with no pilot will not happen in our lifetimes.

 

The Space Shuttle didn't even land itself.

 

 The computational power would need to be 100 cubed  greater than an A/V, and the software probably 100 to the 10th and then cubed more complex.

 

The code and algorithms for just the electrical system is probably 10 cubed more complex than an entire car.  

 

An autonomous airplane would be at least a 1000 times more complex than a space shuttle.  Don't forget, on the Space Shuttle you had a commander and pilot on every flight, and 100s of people in Houston operating and monitoring it.  

 

 

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29 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

You are.drinking the Coolaid Dave, it's 35K base, autopilot is 6K and the 300 mile battery 9K, thats 50K where I come.from.

Price I quoted is actual after Federal contribution.

 

Look it up.  Bolt gets the same deal, but I rather doubt it's delivered price is 20k less as that would be 15k.  If I can get one for that, count me in.  My Hyundai will trade for that even.  

Dave

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2 minutes ago, Mallette said:

Price I quoted is actual after Federal contribution.

 

Look it up.  Bolt gets the same deal, but I rather doubt it's delivered price is 20k less as that would be 15k.  If I can get one for that, count me in.  My Hyundai will trade for that even.  

Dave

It's 50K less 7,500 tax credit.  I'm pretty sure I am right on that.  

 

The base Bolt is 25K and base S3 is 35

  I don't know what the base.Bolt offers in the way of autopilot, if anything.

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14 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

A commercial passenger.airplane actually flying with no pilot will not happen in our lifetimes

3% of passenger planes land hands off.  Flying is child's play compared to landing.  Many more, if not the majority, would be except the amount of redundant monitoring required of the pilots makes it easier to do manually...according to them.  

 

Dave

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1 hour ago, vasubandu said:

 

Anyone who poo poos hyperloop is uninformed. The results so far are extremely promising, and they have not even started.  In my spare time, I am building a hyperloop station in my back yard. Build it and they will come, right?

 

Maybe, just maybe,  it might be due to the barage of unproven, over-exagerated and mis-represented claims by Space X....... but I could be wrong. Maybe you're on to some new info following the 3rd test model run.

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10 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Reminds me of this incident:

 

 

 

Priceless, absoloutely priceless. That will go down as one of the best journalistic reporting snafu's in history. I think Will Farrell was on to it, long before anyone else. 

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51 minutes ago, Mallette said:

3% of passenger planes land hands off.  Flying is child's play compared to landing. 

0% landed without a pilot and co-pilot.

 

I think the 3% figure is suspect as well.

 

Cruise flight is child's play compared landing, which is why shuttle didn't land itself. 

 

And cruise flight is about 100 cubed more.complex than being able to get an A/V to drive down a straight road.  The cruise flight  part is probably  simpler than driving down the road, the exponential complexity with a commercial passenger comes with how it deals with problems.  Airspeed indicator becomes more than 5% different than back up, altimeter 1 starts higher than 2.  Then you combine those problems at same time and work them all out. From there you start working your way up to bird strikes. lightening strikes, weather avoidance, power loss, engine restarts and ultimately, catastrophic failure of turbofan/fire.

 

There isn't even the technology to automatically start a turbofan, let alone taxi a commercial passenger jet.

 

With an A/V when there is a problem you simply program it to activate warning flashers, slow down and pull off road.

 

You obviously cant.do that with a passenger jet.  You have to take it to the very end, a.safe landing. In Computational terms it is approaching near infinity.  

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20 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

You obviously cant.do that with a passenger jet.  You have to take it to the very end, a.safe landing. In Computational terms it is approaching near infinity.  

And works perfectly.  

 

Truly amazing technology.  If you have proof the 3 percent figure is a lie, let me know.  

Dave

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