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Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019


Mallette

Autonomous Vehicles: Good or Bad  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. Are autonomous vehicles a good witch, or a bad witch?

    • Good
      20
    • Bad
      28


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6 hours ago, Don Richard said:

I'm surprised that Tesla sells a system that can't "see" a truck sitting across a roadway or a bicyclist approaching from the side, causing 2 people to die. So sad.

Won't happen again. I understood the code error and the sensor error. There will be thousands more, and there will be more deaths, but less than under human control until fatalities are as rare as in air travel.

 

But even at this state still better than human control, though one should not even think about ignoring the situation at this point. Common sense. 

 

As with anything, failure to follow instructions can be fatal.

 

Dave

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7 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

.. and a defective product can be, too.  I am looking forward to them quickly solving these issues.

I don't have any numbers to back it up, but I think it's clear that they are already better than human drivers. As with the passenger airlines, it will take years to discover and solve the weaknesses, but every one solved will be one that is not repeated. 

 

Dave

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17 hours ago, Mallette said:

Won't happen again.

 

17 hours ago, Mallette said:

There will be thousands more, and there will be more deaths,

 

So, won't happen again or there will be more failures and more deaths? You can't have it both ways, smh.

 

Dave, you are living in a dream world WRT this. Time to get woke....

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2 hours ago, Don Richard said:

So, won't happen again or there will be more failures and more deaths? You can't have it both ways, smh.

Interesting. Railroads went through carnage in the 19th century learning lessons, airlines the same in the 20th, but the same principle won't work in a much faster situation where we already start of ahead of the game? 

 

Your logic eludes me. It would certainly a be a fantasy to believe any technology would be rolled out 100% perfect. 

Dave

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1 hour ago, Mallette said:

Interesting. Railroads went through carnage in the 19th century learning lessons, airlines the same in the 20th, but the same principle won't work in a much faster situation where we already start of ahead of the game? 

 

Your logic eludes me. It would certainly a be a fantasy to believe any technology would be rolled out 100% perfect. 

Dave

It boggles me, the logic they must use to write code to detect traffic and obstacles and to navigate.  The wonders of what you can do with fast computers.  I believe AV's are coming soon, and I am looking very forward to it.  I just hope I don't get one with a bug in it.  😉

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1 hour ago, Jeff Matthews said:

I just hope I don't get one with a bug in it.  😉

When the instructions for your new car finally say "Feel free to take nap" you'll be able to do so in confidence. Until then, let the car do the driving but be ready to react. The degree of readiness will steadily decline over a few years, but as I have consistently said it's insane to believe AVs will suddenly appear that are 99.99% accident proof. But the more that take to the road, the faster the corrections to code will come. Estimates are that just from the automated braking systems that are already available accident rates are going to drop dramatically over the next few years. That SHOULD mean that insurance rates will start dropping as well, since auto insurance will be a waste of money when fully AV control is realized. 

 

Dave

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4 hours ago, Mallette said:

That SHOULD mean that insurance rates will start dropping as well...

What a coincidence!  I just saved a bundle on my car insurance today.  All my life, it has seemed to be the pattern that the less often you switch auto policy carriers, the worse you get taken.  My premium just went down from $712 every 6 mos. to $426 every 6 mos., and I added more coverage, such as $250k/500k uninsured/underinsured, and $10,000 PIP.  

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21 hours ago, Mallette said:

It would certainly a be a fantasy to believe any technology would be rolled out 100% perfect. 

 

Especially if a new auto company does not sufficiently test their systems before releasing them for public use. If there is ever a technology that is required to be idiot proof, autonomous driving cars are it. 

 

It seems that beta testing of smart phones and computers by the general public is common these days, but beta testing immature AV technology on public roads by non-professionals is dangerous and not a good idea. Current AV technology is far, far from 100% perfect, maybe 2% of what it needs to be, according to industry experts - not Tesla engineers.

 

 

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On ‎5‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 7:08 AM, Don Richard said:

Especially if a new auto company does not sufficiently test their systems before releasing them for public use. If there is ever a technology that is required to be idiot proof, autonomous driving cars are it. 

Certainly the most tested tech of all time, but impossible to do without releasing it when it is at least safe enough to use with human override. If you have some ideas on how you get the millions of miles and situations beta tested that would be worth hearing...but it isn't possible anymore than it was possible for the airlines to be 100% safe or for automobiles under human control.  When I was a kid cars had no belts, metal dashboards, and solid column steering wheels. Current AVs are a 1000 times safer under any circumstances and under your concept every car on the road would have to be withdrawn. 50k lives per year is not what I call safe. 

 

Dave

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On ‎5‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 5:07 PM, Jeff Matthews said:

What a coincidence!  I just saved a bundle on my car insurance today.  All my life, it has seemed to be the pattern that the less often you switch auto policy carriers, the worse you get taken.  My premium just went down from $712 every 6 mos. to $426 every 6 mos., and I added more coverage, such as $250k/500k uninsured/underinsured, and $10,000 PIP.  

There is enough impact on accidents from AV tech to warrant that, but frankly surprised they are doing it. Guess it's an actual fact of free enterprise competition. It will get better all the time now until you are paying 0 for it. 

 

Dave

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On 5/17/2018 at 9:02 AM, Mallette said:

It would certainly a be a fantasy to believe any technology would be rolled out 100% perfect. 

 

 

 

Think about that for a second or two........  and remind me again, of the approximate decade you think the "Autonomous Death Trap" or "Killer Cars" will be made available to Joe Public.

 

 

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May I remind you Gilbert that these cars already have safer records than human drivers. Two deaths, both people that ignored the rules. Millions ignore the rules against DUI every year and the slaughter is horrendous.

 

Dave

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1 hour ago, Mallette said:

May I remind you Gilbert that these cars already have safer records than human drivers.

I didn't think that there were any full AV's out there.  Until there are, there's really no way to compare.  You're currently blaming the AV deaths on the drivers anyways.  Suffice it to say, if they weren't in semi AV's they'd be alive today.

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3 hours ago, CECAA850 said:

Suffice it to say, if they weren't in semi AV's they'd be alive today.

Questionable. Those who ignore warnings don't appear to be candidates for survival, IMHO. I've not heard of any lawsuits being filed in those cases. 

 

Between Google cars, which have been around for years now, and others, there are several million miles of road tests available and the data suggests the tech is very reliable already. The most important parts, like collision avoidance braking, are in untold numbers of cars right now and the data suggests they are already having a positive effect on accidents. 

 

This whole thing is science, and science evolves more rapidly every day and with every bit of data. You don't have to be under autonomous control to have automated assistance, and from that assistance comes critical data that only has to be applied once. 

 

Dave

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1 minute ago, Mallette said:

Those who ignore warnings don't appear to be candidates for survival, IMHO.

That's a trite way to look at it.  New technology is not so cut and dry.  Operator error can come as a result of many more things than ignoring warnings.  Inferior warning systems is another way.  The product being too complicated can be another.  Unclear instructions is one.  Foreseeable misuse is yet another.

 

"I've not heard of any lawsuits being filed in those cases. "  Do you know why?  Could me a number of things.  Pre-suit settlement.  Signed waivers from the drivers.  Who knows?

 

Like you, I am eager for this technology to be available.  However, I am not so sure that they can do no wrong and everything is always the occupant's fault.

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29 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

However, I am not so sure that they can do no wrong and everything is always the occupant's fault.

Nobody says they can do no wrong. But it is definitely the occupant's fault if they ignore warnings. Who else can be blamed? Even Microsoft says backup your files...and many ignore and lose data. You can't fix stupid in humans, but once you write a line of remedial code it's fixed forever. From your own position, consider the revolution in your lifetime of what code has done for the internal combustion engines that were incredibly unreliable when I was growing up. Few made it past 75k miles. Now, that is still brand new. Code can do that for the vehicle itself as well as its occupant.

 

Dave

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