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Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019


Mallette

Autonomous Vehicles: Good or Bad  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. Are autonomous vehicles a good witch, or a bad witch?

    • Good
      20
    • Bad
      28


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Everybody wants some things but not everybody wants the same things. I do not want the latest tech things. I own a flip phone that I never use, I drive a boat offshore with a compass, None of my vehicles have GPS or any type of navigation. I prefer to drive my 64 chevelle 4 speed that I can fix on the side of the road if needed. My next set of wheels is a 1975 4 speed. My programmable thermostat in my house is on manual mode because thats the way I want it. I prefer old Klipsch over any new speakers, that is just me. Call me old schoo,l out of touch, or whatever. That is me.

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Mudhog, one of the things I've realized that never really occurred to me in the past is just how anti-progress the Klipsch forum members are as a group.  I certainly share the idea that nothing has really improved in basic audio systems, source, amps, speakers, in half a century and my system reflects that as well as the fact that I mostly listen to LPs, 78s, and R2R.  However, I also have a pretty spiffy music server and record/playback high res digital.  One of my good friends once told me that I seem to live in the past, present, and future all at once.  I would agree.  I have a large collection of kerosene lamps and love them.  I use a crank meat grinder that is a hundred years old.  I make every effort to stay on the old Federal roads and off the interstates when I travel because I enjoy it so much more.  However, I employ state of the art GPS and will certainly turn loose of the wheel the minute I can so I can REALLY enjoy the trip without cramps and the tiring constant vigilance.  I was sailing along at 79 on US59 last Thursday night in NE Texas (75 limit, and I driver 4 miles over or the prevailing speed of traffic) and suddenly noticed a LARGE doe about 40 feet off the road in the fog.  She wasn't moving but was pointed at the road and I really didn't have a clue whether she was going to bolt or not.  Butt pucker moment.  As I passed, I remembered an ad I'd seen sometime ago showing almost the precise situation and the car being sold highlight the deer before you could see it on a heads up display in red.  You anti-technology guys do it yourself, but I WANT that on my next vehicle and I want it to take action even if I do not.  

 

As to the no driver at the wheel at freeway speeds not being autonomy that simply does not compute.  If you mean Elon Musk's statement that his vehicles were basically ready to bring themselves to you from the parking lot, fine.  But that is a "level" as arbitrarily defined outside the dictionary definition, which the Oxford has as: "Acting independently or having the freedom to do so"  Don't bother to try to convince me that an automobile that is making lane, speed, and braking changes without anyone in the drivers seat isn't acting independently. 

 

Dave

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What's your drunk driver solution?

 

Zero tolerance.  No .02, no .04, no .08.  Zero.  You can't have a drink and get in a car.  No mixed messages.  No encouraging people to drive to a bar and return home afterwards in their car.

 

Mandatory treatments, jail time, forfeiture of your automobile.

 

That's if I believed drunk driving was the problem.

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What's your drunk driver solution?

 

Zero tolerance.  No .02, no .04, no .08.  Zero.  You can't have a drink and get in a car.  No mixed messages.  No encouraging people to drive to a bar and return home afterwards in their car.

 

Mandatory treatments, jail time, forfeiture of your automobile.

 

That's if I believed drunk driving was the problem.

 

 

Oh, that. Around here, that would do nothing. People with no license even, get drunk and drive. The jails are already packed to the rafters with killers, so no room for drunks. I think it would be much more effective to just lock them out of driving. What's the gripe against that?

 

Paying $130 grand a year to keep 100,000 drunks in jail is my idea of a very bad idea. Put a $29 lockout on cars. Done.

 

 

Amazingly enough, the countries with such approaches don't have 100K drunks in jail.  The lockout doesn't work and isn't $29.  You need to change the culture.

 

What do those people with no license drive?

 

Jails aren't packed to the rafters with killers, they are packed with misdemeanor crimes to keep the dollars flowing to those corporations that own private facilities.  The drunk driving laws we have today aren't to solve the drunk driving issue, they are meant to keep the flow of money into the court system.  Change the culture, no DUI's except for special cases, and that flow of money is diminished.  Hence, no solution.

 

I always love when a member of MADD gets arrested for DUI because she had a glass of wine or two at lunch.  She gets angry and swears and proclaims she isn't like them - she isn't a drunk driver.  She then learns about the law and realizes most of the others she has condemned weren't drunk drivers either.

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And that since we are unable to even get that, then how could Dave expect we could ever mandate full automated cars.

 

Same way we mandate at least two people in an HOV lane.  Lots of grousing about that, but it's still enforced.

 

Dave

 

That isn't how they would mandate automated vehicles, buy them and pay a fine.  They would be mandated by federal law the same way that 3 point seat belts are required for every seat position, the same way that air bags are mandated, and at least a 100 other safety items that are federally mandated to be on a vehicle.

 

Now they could start allowing a single occupant to use an HOV lane to provide an incentive for people to purchase them and a fine if they were not using it in AV mode while in the lane.  I think what they are going to need if they go with that model is separate distinctive plates for models that meet that requirement and/or a TxTag on the front windshield, PLUS, there will have to be some sort of a light on the front and back of the vehicle, or the hood like a cab, and indicates that the vehicle is in AV mode.  They could put up sensors like on toll roads that reads every vehicle that passes, if it doesn't have the tag, or had the tag but it is not in AV mode, you get an automatic ticket (like red lights).

 

There would be significant legal impediments from trying to switch an HOV lane to purely an AV lane.  In other words, it would initially have to be for both for some period of time.

 

Three states have legislation allowing the limited testing and use of AV currently.  CA, NV (where google developed their AV) and FL.  Texas considered legislation last session, passed in the House, and was killed.  Last time I checked, there has been no bill submitted in this current session regarding AVs, but of court there is plenty of time left before the deadline.

 

Technology in transportation/vehicles is different than technology in general.  Faster chips, memory, etc. moves at the pace that technology allows and it ultimately becomes the subject of market forces.  Technology in transportation, specifically in passenger vehicles, is regulated by the DOT, and they of course have to answer to Congress.  Cruise control, stability control, ABS, windshields, tires, pretty much everything you can think of has to be submitted, reviewed, and approved by DOT before it can be installed on a vehicle.  In some cases Congress gets involved, like with airbags, and mandates them to be installed in every vehicle by a certain date (airbags was a seven year window).  

 

The federal government regulates vehicles, state governments regulate drivers.  There is a considerable amount up in the air on how that is going to be sorted out.  Will a separate license and test be required to operate an AV?  Do state's have to approve AV use before the federal government approves a vehicle?  That of course will take time to sort out.  

 

The technology is here, and affordable productions models might be right around the corner, but the regulatory and legal scheme need to keep pace as well.

 

Travis

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They would be mandated by federal law the same way that 3 point seat belts are required for every seat position, the same way that air bags are mandated, and at least a 100 other safety items that are federally mandated to be on a vehicle.

 

Well, you are expect faster action than I am.  The ramp up to significant saturation of the (I think) L3.5 or whatever vehicles like the Infinity in the video that could easily handle an HOV lane autonomously (bearing in mind that is hands off as I use the Oxford definition) is going to take at least a couple of years.  I think the restrictions are going to take place slower. 

 

Further, this really SHOULD be a state thing in at least the early years until uniformity across the Interstate system becomes necessary.  Not sure the Feds have anything to do with HOV lanes or city laws. 

 

Dave

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I just was thinking...this thread will be an evergreen in the paddles being put to it from time to time over the years as things change.  Kewl...

 

I am going to leave the poll open for years to see how it changes.  That will be fun.

 

Dave

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I just was thinking...this thread will be an evergreen in the paddles being put to it from time to time over the years as things change.  Kewl...

 

I am going to leave the poll open for years to see how it changes.  That will be fun.

 

Dave

 

Stop by my home in about 4 or 5 years with your non-autonomous car (because they still won't be available), and we can have even more fun by watching my front lawn grow.

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They would be mandated by federal law the same way that 3 point seat belts are required for every seat position, the same way that air bags are mandated, and at least a 100 other safety items that are federally mandated to be on a vehicle.

Well, you are expect faster action than I am. The ramp up to significant saturation of the (I think) L3.5 or whatever vehicles like the Infinity in the video that could easily handle an HOV lane autonomously (bearing in mind that is hands off as I use the Oxford definition) is going to take at least a couple of years. I think the restrictions are going to take place slower.

Further, this really SHOULD be a state thing in at least the early years until uniformity across the Interstate system becomes necessary. Not sure the Feds have anything to do with HOV lanes or city laws.

Dave

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Well there yea go believing again...... because unless you know otherwise, it's my understanding that that head-in-the-sand thing is an oooooold wives tale....  but you keep the faith brotha, you keep right on believing the experts. That song has been playing for decades, autonomous cars, flying cars, magnetic levitation, etc. etc..

 

 

FWIW, the engr in me says fully autonomous cars will come some decade, but from what I read over the past 35+ years, and continue to read in countless magazines that are dedicated to the automotive world, it won't happen the way your believing.... not even close.

 

 

If you'd like to wager a friendly bet, I'm all ears.  Maybe a dinner at Mortons, Killen's, Ruth Chris, Capital Grille?..... maybe a bottle of 25 yr. old Glenmorangie?.......  Case of the finest ale from HEB?......  You name it, I say 5 yrs. and still nothing even remotely close to fully autonomous cars sharing public roads.

 

I'll be in Pasadena and Galveston all day tomorrow and Thursday (April 1 and 2nd.), and I know at some point in that traffic from hell I'm gonna think about you; but I'll still enjoy being in control of my vehicle.

 

Where abouts you at, I know I'll be near the NASA space center...... shoot me a PM, if I have time I'll treat you to a steak and a beer or 2 or 3.

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Well there yea go believing again...... because unless you know otherwise, it's my understanding that that head-in-the-sand thing is an oooooold wives tale....  but you keep the faith brotha, you keep right on believing the experts. That song has been playing for decades, autonomous cars, flying cars, magnetic levitation, etc. etc..

 

 

FWIW, the engr in me says fully autonomous cars will come some decade, but from what I read over the past 35+ years, and continue to read in countless magazines that are dedicated to the automotive world, it won't happen the way your believing.... not even close.

 

 

If you'd like to wager a friendly bet, I'm all ears.  Maybe a dinner at Mortons, Killen's, Ruth Chris, Capital Grille?..... maybe a bottle of 25 yr. old Glenmorangie?.......  Case of the finest ale from HEB?......  You name it, I say 5 yrs. and still nothing even remotely close to fully autonomous cars sharing public roads.

 

I'll be in Pasadena and Galveston all day tomorrow and Thursday (April 1 and 2nd.), and I know at some point in that traffic from hell I'm gonna think about you; but I'll still enjoy being in control of my vehicle.

 

Where abouts you at, I know I'll be near the NASA space center...... shoot me a PM, if I have time I'll treat you to a steak and a beer or 2 or 3.

Morton's I love, but Perry's Steak House was started in Clear Lake and you should for sure hit that while you are there.

Y'all stay out of trouble.

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They would be mandated by federal law the same way that 3 point seat belts are required for every seat position, the same way that air bags are mandated, and at least a 100 other safety items that are federally mandated to be on a vehicle.

 

Well, you are expect faster action than I am.  The ramp up to significant saturation of the (I think) L3.5 or whatever vehicles like the Infinity in the video that could easily handle an HOV lane autonomously (bearing in mind that is hands off as I use the Oxford definition) is going to take at least a couple of years.  I think the restrictions are going to take place slower. 

 

Further, this really SHOULD be a state thing in at least the early years until uniformity across the Interstate system becomes necessary.  Not sure the Feds have anything to do with HOV lanes or city laws. 

 

Dave

It can't be a State thing. For this thing to take off the way you would like, a manufacturer has to be able to build one system that is good in all 50 states. One way, of many, to be able to do that is to apply for and get certification from DOT/NIHTSA that specifically seeks federal premption. Different systems can seek seperate certification, they will want their 15 year patents if available, but they don't want to have to tailor to each state. It would take a century to do that and you would only have them in large markets.

If they get DOT approval and premption state's cannot limit the use or outlaw them. States can license their use differently, and can tax them differently.

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Where abouts you at, I know I'll be near the NASA space center...... shoot me a PM, if I have time I'll treat you to a steak and a beer or 2 or 3.

 

That timing is good, Gil.  I'll be getting back to this side of town about 2.  T-Bone Tom's is a great place just across the Kemah bridge.  You just go down NASA 1 until it ends in 146, hang a right, cross the bridge and look for it on the left a couple of blocks down.  Price is right, food is excellent.

 

 

Dave

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For this thing to take off the way you would like, a manufacturer has to be able to build one system that is good in all 50 states.

 

But, to my knowledge, existing systems are already good in all 50 for the reasons you state.  There are no laws because there have been no degrees of autonomy.  We are both just crystal balling, but I still think it will start at the local level first and move out.

 

I also believe there will be a lot of confusion until it is sorted out.

 

Dave

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You name it, I say 5 yrs. and still nothing even remotely close to fully autonomous cars sharing public roads.

 

You better be careful with that bet and define "fully autonomous."  Under Dave's definition, "fully autonomous" cars are already on the road.

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but I'll still enjoy being in control of my vehicle.

 

Yeah, but you won't be "in control."  :emotion-14:

 

Anyway, just noticed you'd be coming up from Galveston or Pasadena.  Perfect.  Tom's is on 146 just before the Kemah bridge if you are headed north.  146 is usually better than 45 during the business day anyway from Galveston.

 

Let me know...

 

Dave

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