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Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019


Mallette

Autonomous Vehicles: Good or Bad  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. Are autonomous vehicles a good witch, or a bad witch?

    • Good
      20
    • Bad
      28


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The fact that we can't even pass legislation to lock out drunk drivers ought to be some indication as to why mandated autonomous cars is a dream.

 

Try as I may I cannot make even the greatest leap between those two things.

 

Dave

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I think Mark is saying that the history of safety Inovation on automobiles available in the US has never been driven by normal market forces. Ford offered a safety package option in the late 50s (Lifeguard) but it didn't sell. Airbags were a consumer option for a decade before legislation was passed to mandate them, and even then the automakers were given 7 years to comply.

Cruise control became more common because of cost, oil crisis of '73 got people more concerned with MPG and cruise control helped increase mpg and started selling.

Autonomous technology, based on past experience, will only occur if legislation mandates it, or it is affordable to the masses and results in a savings of some type.

Dave's early posts stated,

While those lamenting the loss of old technology are always around us I am frankly surprised at the vociferous resistance to reducing the 60,000 deaths, 200,000 injuries, untold billions in health care cost, trillions in infrastructure investments, and billions of man hours lost to the total chaos that is our road system. I suppose it is conditioning. Even combat soldiers eventually get used to the idea of constant danger.

We could virtually eliminate uninsured driving and drunk driving for less than 100 per vehicle, and we don't. Why would we think that we would require autonomous vehicles or that there will be a big rush at 5K per vehicle in two years?

It will be a matter of price. When they can make an autonomous vehicle that the average person can afford, it will sell like gang busters, and not until then.

The fact that none of the experts are talking about cost yet tells me it is a ways off.

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If you wanted to take small steps at reducing driving risks, making sure drunks can't start a car would be a good small step.

 

Society is doing precisely what it wants to do about DUI.  It's one thing that is definitely in the hands of the people and not the feds. 

 

The gains from it are scarcely significant compared to the trillions...and I've enumerated from good sources...to be saved by the public via AVs.  The only way to prevent it is to refuse to buy one.  If a voting majority do that there is a possibility that the restrictions will be long delayed.  But that won't happen.  Once the hotdoggers realize they can cut in front and go nuts as they wish and the AVs will insist on driving defensively the AV owners will insist on laws restricting lanes to AVs.  The existing HOV lanes are a no brainer and will be the first to go.  But they will fill up rapidly.  Yes, there is a majority here shouting down these things but I rather doubt they are anything like a majority once the tide begins to turn in ownership.  Shout "Freedom to drive as I want" all you want and I assure you that you won't find a majority of Houstonians, Angelinos, Atlantans, or wherever nasty rush hour is found who say they really want to continue to crawl along totally focused on making the next car length. 

 

Dave

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It will be a matter of price. When they can make an autonomous vehicle that the average person can afford, it will sell like gang busters, and not until then.

 

No source.  I provided the source for the 5k cost.  I am not a rich man or a spendthrift but I assure you 5k is my price point.  Right now I drive a company provided Ford Fusion, 2014.  My book describes the top model as well and it has adaptive cruise, automatic braking, etc.  No idea where you are getting your facts but I can afford a top of the line Fusion and I suspect it will be pretty thoroughly automated and able to drive autonomously at least on roads like the Infinity Q50 video by the time I retire in 5 years...and I would bet more.

 

Not my ideal car, but I'll buy 5k less room and other stuff to get the comfort and safety of the most automation available.  And I really think I am hardly alone.

 

Dave

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It will be a matter of price. When they can make an autonomous vehicle that the average person can afford, it will sell like gang busters, and not until then.

 

No source.  I provided the source for the 5k cost.  I am not a rich man or a spendthrift but I assure you 5k is my price point.  Right now I drive a company provided Ford Fusion, 2014.  My book describes the top model as well and it has adaptive cruise, automatic braking, etc.  No idea where you are getting your facts but I can afford a top of the line Fusion and I suspect it will be pretty thoroughly automated and able to drive autonomously at least on roads like the Infinity Q50 video by the time I retire in 5 years...and I would bet more.

 

Not my ideal car, but I'll buy 5k less room and other stuff to get the comfort and safety of the most automation available.  And I really think I am hardly alone.

 

Dave

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It will be a matter of price. When they can make an autonomous vehicle that the average person can afford, it will sell like gang busters, and not until then.

No source. I provided the source for the 5k cost. I am not a rich man or a spendthrift but I assure you 5k is my price point. Right now I drive a company provided Ford Fusion, 2014. My book describes the top model as well and it has adaptive cruise, automatic braking, etc. No idea where you are getting your facts but I can afford a top of the line Fusion and I suspect it will be pretty thoroughly automated and able to drive autonomously at least on roads like the Infinity Q50 video by the time I retire in 5 years...and I would bet more.

Not my ideal car, but I'll buy 5k less room and other stuff to get the comfort and safety of the most automation available. And I really think I am hardly alone.

Dave

The source? Economics 101. Airbag history and legislation, seat belt history and legislation AND about 20 posts ago I linked to an article that said that the average worker in the US can afford a 30K car in today's dollors, I also posted an article where they interviewed the head guy from Delphi who said autonomus vehicles will most likely be a slow transition. I believe he stated 20 years for one half the vehicles but I might be mistaken. I cited an article from Volvo that HOPES they can lease less than 100 AVs by 2017, their 70K vehicle.

If they offer a 25,000 vehicle in 2 years with a 5k option I think you are going to get a fair number of folks to bite, they will live in the big cities and have a terrible commute. You get Congress to offer a 5K tax credit in 2 years and you have a 30K AV car available, I think the vast majority of new car buyers are going to buy AV.

If AVs are available as an option on vehicles in the 60 to 80K range, than very few.

The law of supply and demand in a free mkt is pretty well established, and it all centers around price.

Believe it or not the median wage in the US is 26K. Two thirds earn less than 42k.

Here is that article on what the average wage earner can afford. Oh, in Houston it is 20K. So if you are looking forward to the day in Houston when the average vehicle on the road is an AV they need to cost 20K. (They will also need to offer it in a pickup for it to have anu hope in Texas).

http://www.autoblog.com/2014/03/12/who-can-afford-the-average-car-price-only-folks-in-washington/

What that probably means is that folks are going to have to wait and buy used AV vehicles to afford them.

So assuming the USA remains a relatively free market system, simple economics dictates that if the average person is going to have an AV then it has to cost at or below what the average person can afford. Apparently someone somewhere said a 5K option in 2 years. So in Houston that is a 15K car with the option, assuming they just have to have an AV and wouldn't rather get a used sports car or full size pickup like 90 percent of American males between 18 and 30.

Policymakers can increase demand with tax credits, providing AV only lanes, reduced or free tolls for AVs etc.

If we go socialist and everyone gets a free or subsidized AV car then, and only then, does price not become an issue. Totally unlikely.

The other alternatives is for Congress or States to mandate it (Interstates by Congress, State Highways by the States). While that is certainly conceivable, there is no way to predict what will happen and nothing quickly, any legislation would have a lengthy phase in.

So what you are left with is price.

People who are safety conscious, willing to pay extra for the greater good of urban traffic, and can afford it, will buy it.

People who have different priorities will not, like saving for a house, paying for a child's college, starting a family, or even eating.

What is the price including the 5K option? If someone can tell me that you don't need to be a Nobel prize winning economist to know how many are going to sell.

After all, we know there will be about 50 Volvos in Sweden in 2017. They are not afraid to talk about what there goals are. I haven't been able to locate anything on the cost other than the article I posted that talked about 200,000K of equipment in the Infinity and no one really wanting to talk about price yet.

Source? I keep looking for a source on price and the only I could find is the Volvo article that even mentioned sales goals.

Technology hasn't figured out a way to get around price as the principal factor in determining demand, so the big question still remains in my mind, what's it going to cost in 2017?

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Top of the line Ford Fusion is what, 36K MSRP? Add 5K and you are at 41K, wash the discount off of MSRP with increase in car prices of 3 percent per year, lets be generous and call it 40K, twice what average worker in Houston can afford per the article I linked. I would say that 5 percent of new Ford Fusions sold in 2017 at that price will be AV. They sold about 300K units last year, just over 10 percent of those were hybrids. So if they offer it in 2017, which Ford has committed to doing, and it adds 5K to price, I predict 15,000 units will be AVs. They get that price with an AV option down to 25K and Honda and Toyota don't have it available, they could sell 150,000 AV units.

Your fleet vehicle raises a good point, Fleet purchases. Government purchases of vehicles required airbags before they were required because of the savings in insurance costs, this drove supply. If there is a cost motive to employers (outside of tax breaks), to insist on AV, a big IF, I believe the numbers on the road will be far greater than I originally anticipated.

So I guess in addition to price, if big fleet owners jump on board you will see a big jump, just like they did with Hybrids.

I will be getting the Tesla, or other electric equivalent, when they have a little track record of reliable safety at least at a Level 3. So hopefully next year.

AVs raise a lot of interesting questions for the eventual consideration of police departments, which is the vast majority of what I do now, represent officers and the associations/unions they belong to. There are squad cars (cruisers) of course which have to be able to run Code 3 and that would obviously be in manual mode, but there are a significant number of vehicles assigned to detectives, administration, etc. that could easily handle their functions in AV mode. City will probably want it so reports can be prepared on the way back to the station, type while you drive, and the associations will probably not be in favor of it. It will be interesting to see how that all sorts out.

T

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Airbag history and legislation, seat belt history and legislation AND about 20 posts ago I linked to an article that said that the average worker in the US can afford a 30K car in today's dollors, I also posted an article where they interviewed the head guy from Delphi who said autonomus vehicles will most likely be a slow transition

 

Airbags and seatbelts do nothing to alleviate the crushing boredom and frustration of being forced to pay attention in order to move a couple of car lengths in Houston traffic without being honked at.  As I said, irrelevant IMHO to AV technology which, while representing a huge leap in safety also promises relief from the freeway.   And, I believe that many will, like me, buy 5k less car with 5k of automation in it.  As to the Delphi guy's statement I find it likely to be more political than his actual thoughts.  Obviously a lot of emotions out there and I am sure they realize this.  Their actions speak louder than his words. 

 

I am sure we all see spin on all of this.  As I've stated, I am nowhere near as emotionally tied up in this as many seem to be.  It's just technology to me, like cell phones were.  I worked for a cell startup in Dallas, the "B" carrier, in the early 90s when nobody but the wealthier had a cell phone.  Most people were "meh," too expensive and "I LIKE getting away from my phone."  Didn't last long.  At that time I figured heavy penetration from maybe 3% to 50% in a decade.  Turned out a bit conservative but I was met with a lot of skepticism at the time. 

 

Dave

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Lets face it, you would have to have NASA spec electronics to trust your life to the autocar thing and even that is not enough.

 

As there are already a plethora of vehicles out there, including the lowly Ford Fusion, with the most critical systems automated it is clear that neither manufacturers nor consumers agree with you, JJ.  I can think of many, many systems we already rely on that are entirely automated...including 1 of a 100 airliner landings...and many feel it is more than enough.

 

Beyond that, with them proliferating, the speed of data incoming to further improve systems will be unlike anything in the past.  Consider the number of automobiles in use compared to aircraft.  Like aircraft accidents, and automobile incident will be pored over in extreme detail and anything found implemented immediately. 

 

I've fully agreed there will be lots of sturm und drang during this process, but as it is a rational and logical process it will work itself out rapidly.  Even those on the roads now do what they do better than human control, IMHO.  They certainly parallel park faster and more accurately than anyone I ever seen.  That's got to be harder than inching along in a traffic jam.

 

Dave

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Lets face it, you would have to have NASA spec electronics to trust your life to the autocar thing and even that is not enough.

JJK

 

You can say that again..... Can you also say "Space Shuttle Columbia", or "Space Shuttle Challenger"...... I knew that you could boys and girls.

Edited by Gilbert
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LMAO.....   Oh, but according to Dave's experts, we're just a few years away from perfection, and putting autonomous vehicles on major expressways.

 

I love Top Gear, it's a great show.

 

Here's one of my favorite episodes.....  

 

 

Dave, get yourself an old Toyota, and call it good.

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What car parallel parks faster than a competent human?

 

Just going on the say so of my FiL, who has been testing vehicles for a variety of makers from Rolls Royce on down for 25 years and says the automated systems can get them into places he wouldn't try.  As the testing company has increased his pay and incentives to keep him on past 70 to train others I've no reason to not believe him.  I've also ridden a few thousand miles with him and his driving is amazing...very much what I would expect from a computer.  Never any quick movements or hard stops...he sees stuff WAY in advance.  BTW - he found over 200 problems in the last Rolls he tested...apparently a record.

 

Anyway, there are always idiot savants who can twist their bodies into knots and such.  Drive downtown and look more average skills in parallel parking.  It isn't a pretty sight.

 

Dave

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I have come to believe that autonomous vehicles and stuff like the parking assist feature are popular ideas which are coverups for incompetent or impaired drivers. Right now it is apparent that there are way too many people out there who shouldn't be behind the wheel. If you are concerned about the welfare of loved ones who drive here's what you can do, right now. Schedule performance street driving classes for them. Typically done at a race track, these classes consist of classroom time where the basics are explained, then hands-on sessions on a parking lot or skidpad that has been flooded. Specially equipped cars are used so the on-board instructor can simulate a tire blowout or put the car in a skid. The instructor corrects the driver's mistakes until the student can properly control the car at the low speeds on the wet skidpad. Then they go onto the racetrack where things happen faster and different real world scenarios are presented. At the end of the course the students can actually drive the vehicle and are less likely to become a statistic.

 

As far as "drunk lockouts" are concerned, what about "drunk lockups"? Other countries arrest for DUI with BAC levels as low as .02%, with higher BACs given progressively stiffer penalties, which include serious mandatory jail time. Makes sense as data clearly shows higher BAC associated with worse accidents.

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