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Poll & Prediction: Autonomous Car Equipment at 5k by 2019


Mallette
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Autonomous Vehicles: Good or Bad  

49 members have voted

  1. 1. Are autonomous vehicles a good witch, or a bad witch?

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    • Bad
      28


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On 12/2/2017 at 1:45 PM, Mallette said:

And yet, it's working just fine in those applications.  Certainly accidents where million dollar trucks fall down hundreds of feet or collide with each other would be problematic...yet it either doesn't happen or is unreported.  

 

Yes, beating a dead horse here where some are concerned so will simply hold and wait on the inevitable and plan my new car purchase for 2 years from now.  Will let it take you for a ride, Travis while we play with the audio system.  

 

Dave

I will have mine before you and my guess is that it will be an Audi.  Heck with the radio I going to teach.my dog to sit.in.front.seat and.touch the steering wheel once a minute we can sit in back seat and have a cocktail.

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6 hours ago, JJkizak said:

It is my understanding that fork lift operators at soda companies get paid by how many trucks they load per hour. They drive those things flat out with full loads hour upon hour and you don't dare walk past the yellow lines in their lanes or you will die and your body will be pushed to the side because it's in the way.

JJK

Probably a federal wage violation, and probably anecdotal.

 

Coke, Pepsi and Dr. Pepper pay hourly, but who knows what a local bottler will try and get away with.

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6 hours ago, Mallette said:

Sounds like solid grounds for a lawsuit, JJK.  How about paying cops for the number of arrests they make?

 

Dave

For sure illegal.

 

How about paying DPS workers by the number of driver's licensees they process in a day.?

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It's going to be close.  Dave may hit it right on the dot, 2019, it mat be 2020 before public can get them.  

 

It appears that the first approved and licensed truly AV will be by GM

 

"General Motors is looking to reinvent the wheel, by building a car without a steering wheel, pedals or gear selector, because it doesn’t need them.

The automaker on Friday revealed images of an autonomous car it’s hoping to put into production by 2019 and is petitioning the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for permission to do so.

If approved, it will likely be the first production vehicle of its kind to hit the road, two years before a similar proposal from Ford.

Based on the Chevy Bolt, the electric Cruise AV will initially be employed in a ride-hailing capacity and operate within a pre-determined, well-mapped ‘geo-fenced’ area, so it won’t be entirely off the leash."

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I am an attorney and looked deeply into this for a client.  Conclusion was that private insurance will be replaced by manufacturer coverage under product liability model.  Most interesting was prediction that driving will be prohibited or cost up to 100k for license.  Adding people-oriented cars too the mix too dangerous for everyone. Phase in starting 2021. All just guesses of course but from solid sources. 

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3 hours ago, vasubandu said:

I am an attorney and looked deeply into this for a client.  Conclusion was that private insurance will be replaced by manufacturer coverage under product liability model.  Most interesting was prediction that driving will be prohibited or cost up to 100k for license.  Adding people-oriented cars too the mix too dangerous for everyone. Phase in starting 2021. All just guesses of course but from solid sources. 

That means forcing older car owners to pay 100K for a license?  That will never get through the courts.

JJK

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True @JJkizak and what to do with the "driver" cars is the big issue being discussed behind the scenes.  It does not work to blend in driverless cars, and no one seems to have the answer for the transition.  Ideas being floated included a huge buy-back, but that would be astronomically expensive.  My conclusion of 2021 was later than many because of exactly this issue. All of the predictions include a clean break, but none is apparent.  You really nailed the issue.

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No, @Mallette but the conclusion of my research was that demand would force the government to offer the option at a cost. It would be easier to charge $100K per year for a license to drive than to ban driving outright.  Also considered grandfathered rights, etc.  I should say that my client was interested in handling the disposal/sale of the driver cars in the third world since that is where they seem to be headed.  So, not it is not a right, but it is close enough that charging for it might be easier than banning it.

 

I also should say that my work was a year and a half ago.  I spent a few months on it, but it is dated.

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4 minutes ago, vasubandu said:

No, @Mallette but the conclusion of my research was that demand would force the government to offer the option at a cost. It would be easier to charge $100K per year for a license to drive than to ban driving outright.  Also considered grandfathered rights, etc. 

By the time driving is predominately outright banned, the public will have seen the enormous benefits that AV's bring and will be all for it, IMHO.  Further, bans will begin just on inner lanes and progress outward on freeways before being extended to principle roads and streets.  You can't replace the entire fleet overnight...though I would not be surprised to find the government putting serious money into this change as the benefits of ending the majority of road construction will bring such massive savings to the public to make it a no brainer.

 

Dave

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It may have been discussed somewhere in these 42 pages but has the economics of "safe" driving been discussed? The displaced workforce associated with the traditional auto industry? If the scenario is for zero accidents then every business and their millions of employees in the auto repair, manufacture chain will be effected, eliminated. It would be nearly impossible to list each and every component that will no longer be needed but that cost will be millions of displaced workers making and installing said parts. So now "retrain" that segment who no longer have their place? Another rabbit hole that no one has a shovel big enough to dig out of. Maybe, just maybe our soon to be released autonomous humans will take our place the "wheel" leaving us to stay home, stare at the boob tube, key in needed Google fluff, and atrophy into mindless skeletons. Can't wait to be signed into  our Brave New World where the control comes from regulators, auto makers, insurance companies  and the government do gooders. But I guess in that respect we are already there.

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They've got a long way to go before I'd trust them on the snow and ice I see out there now.  Of course, I see idiots in the ditch that I don't trust either.  

 

As far as lost jobs, we don't need coal or ice delivered to our homes anymore either.  Our economy is full of jobs that didn't exist not that long ago.  How many people working in IT?   Auto repair?!  That won't go away.  Autonomous cars will still kill people... were just talking fewer (eventually).  Maybe the statistics will look better.    Road construction?  Maybe it will slow down but they will need plenty of labor and $ to spend on the failing infrastructure we have now.  How many potholes on the turnpikes you pay for now?

 

"Freedom to endanger others" is quite a dramatic stretch, Dave.  Of course, "pursuit of happiness" is an unalienable right but we can argue where the lines should be drawn for all sorts of activities.  Banning texting while driving was a pretty good idea for example.  Lots of good conversations to be had in the future... hopefully, our kids will be better at balancing and preserving our freedoms than we have for decades.  Whoops!  That was a bit political.  How about I leave it at striving to survive for a life worth living?  Mere survival should not be the only pursuit.  

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8 hours ago, vasubandu said:

I am an attorney and looked deeply into this for a client.  Conclusion was that private insurance will be replaced by manufacturer coverage under product liability model.  Most interesting was prediction that driving will be prohibited or cost up to 100k for license.  Adding people-oriented cars too the mix too dangerous for everyone. Phase in starting 2021. All just guesses of course but from solid sources. 

What was the projected time of phase in for having to purchase an AV or face having to pay high price for license?

 

Travis

 

 

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5 hours ago, vasubandu said:

True @JJkizak and what to do with the "driver" cars is the big issue being discussed behind the scenes.  It does not work to blend in driverless cars, and no one seems to have the answer for the transition.  Ideas being floated included a huge buy-back, but that would be astronomically expensive.  My conclusion of 2021 was later than many because of exactly this issue. All of the predictions include a clean break, but none is apparent.  You really nailed the issue.

It will be a 10 to 20 year transition just like everything else that has been federally mandated.

 

They can ramp it up, on AVs on the interstates.  Then only AV'S on US highways.  Then that starts going state and local.

 

How long for seat belts to be required to be installed in every car?  Airbags?  Antiock brakes?   How long to mandate conversion to HD TV?  How long to install collision avoidance on passenger trains?  It still hasn't been funded by the way.  Those timelines have been discussed much earlier in here.  The one thing for certain is that federal legislation will be required in order to do it, and then Regs by DOT to implement it.  

 

It will be decades before you go into a car dealer and they only have vehicles without steering wheels, and it will be decades before a license is only available to the wealthy.  

 

It will certainly start ramping that way over time.

 

Travis

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, richieb said:

It may have been discussed somewhere in these 42 pages but has the economics of "safe" driving been discussed?

Yes, to some degree.  Point is the paradigm shift is so massive it would take a think tank of economists, futurists, and all sorts to even guess how it will shake out.  Huge numbers of jobs were wiped out by the sudden shift from horses to motor vehicles, but it not only changed the mode of transit but the entire fabric of our society.  Change, even that which looks good, is always unnerving.  But we'll get through it and a generation will soon shudder as they see images of traffic jams, terrible wrecks, and hear of the incredible expense of auto insurance, road building, traffic policing, DUI, etc.  

Dave

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2 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

It will be a 10 to 20 year transition just like everything else that has been federally mandated.

You may be right, but this is so much more profound than airbags or seat belts and I suspect they'll speed it up once the massive savings in lives, property, and tax dollars starts to materialize.  Even simply reserving the inside lane for AVs would change things dramatically.  Everyone will want to be there...well, the vast majority anyway.  Took a while to pry the reins out from a few stubborn cowboys, but resistance is futile sayeth the Borg.

Dave

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2 hours ago, Mallette said:

You can't replace the entire fleet overnight

 

You are dead right, but the people I talked to did not want any erratic people driven cars in the arena period.  Some research apparently suggests that they cannot be far enough away. Bear in mind that I collected and reported information with a legal perspective, so I am not at all an expert.  But the people I consulted with are at the heart of this. As for people seeing the benefits, tell that to a guy with a McLaren.  Tell him to take a shared car, which is the future.  This is all going to be very interesting.  And those amazing safety records you read about were accomplished with processors that are so obsolete they are worthless.  It is a very scary glimpse into the future.

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