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Jeffrey D. Medwin

Stock Markets MAY be interesting this upcoming Week.

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[Moderator Edit, Securities advice, post deleated in part. ]

 

[This much was true]

 

We live, right now, in an interesting time.   1871 to 2020, is shown below.

 

Jeffrey Medwin

 

 

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On 1/27/2020 at 12:44 AM, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

We live, right now, in an interesting time.   1871 to 2020, is shown below.

 

Jeffrey Medwin

 

 

 

So you are sure I will be able to purchase AAPL shares for $66 each this week? Maybe the following week?

I just cannot wait for this great opportunity :)

Thx for the hot tip Jeff.

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1 hour ago, polizzio said:

 

So you are sure I will be able to purchase AAPL shares for $66 each this week? Maybe the following week?

I just cannot wait for this great opportunity :)

Thx for the hot tip Jeff.

 

 

No, you certainly mis-read what I suggested.

 

It is set-up for  a 10,000 Point in a few-days drop - as the start of history's biggest-ever Bear Market.  AAPL won't have a chance to fill its gap until the concluding death throws of the bear.  That occurs when the public, ( who rode everything they own down, and is getting margin calls ), is puking - out their stocks, at ANY price, at what will become the bottom. 

 

The great opportunity IMHO is NOW. I am 100%+ short this entire market. 

 

" When they raid the wh*re house, they take the piano player too. "  Look at the charts I initially posted, for all to see. 

 

Jeff Medwin

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One word for you...

 

DOLLAR COST AVERAGING!

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9 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

No, you certainly mis-read what I suggested.

 

 

 

But you said above AAPL shares @ $66 are assured, and a 10,000 point plunge of the Dow Jones..........based on your deep understanding of the US economy and stock market. And in the "JUST / ONLY a few day's trading time".

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Schu said:

One word for you...

 

DOLLAR COST AVERAGING!

 

Ah.....that's three words.

No soup for you!

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Well, here's my five words!! :emotion-14:

 

 

Some may know...some may not....  so I'll try to tell the story here I ask of others...

 

There are a couple presumptions involved so I ask you simply roll with the story.  Unfortunately, given the nature of posting here (and me having to leave for work to in part........repeat this story...) it will be difficult if not impossible to have it play out like it does in person.

 

Also, it is not a perfect story, but it's simply used to try to illustrate a point.

 

Preface: 

 

1.  You are an AVID hunter

2.  Tomorrow is first day of Open Season

3.  You discover you are OUT of ammunition.

4.  Ammunition normally costs you $20/box

5.  You get to the store to buy some and they have YOUR ammunition on an endcap for sale (no purchase limits) and your ammo (normally $20/box) is on sale for $5.00/box.... 

 

What might you do???

 

(this is when the crowd has some chatter and various people say "I'd buy more, I'd buy an extra box, Heck, I'd LOAD my cart!!!")

 

Now the questions....

 

You are busy loading your cart with the $5.00 box ammo....and you hear a voice (mine) behind  you saying

 

"Great.....there's my ammo.....  ???  WHAT???  It's on SALE???  at $5.00 box??........  NOPE, I think I'm going to WAIT until the sale goes off before I buy mine"

 

 

This is when I shut up and look for the people do really digest the absurdity of what I just said and it is usually evidenced by their eyebrows either raising or scrunching.....

 

"FURTHERMORE, I add, I Do happen to have some of this ammo at home in my safe....I paid $20 for it...  now that it's on sale, I'm going to go home and throw it all away!!!"

 

At which point the crowd REALLY raises their eyebrows and if someone is bold enough, they'll actually say out loud "Well, THAT is STUPID!!!"

 

To which I wholeheartedly agree.....  and then I let them know that I've been doing this with people for 33 years and if we exchange the words "Ammo" for "Stocks", I HAVE had that conversation with people.....

 

My hope is by changing their viewpoint and perhaps bringing it into something they can relate to on a daily basis....  they can see the error of their logic.

 

Here's my take...  ( not to get political)  

 

Mr. President got elected.  Market SOARED.  I personally believe 100% he will be re-elected and we will continue with good markets for (let's just say) 5 more years.  YES, the market WILL take a punch in the nose every now & then but that just means the Ammo is on sale....  

 

You really shouldn't care what the market does AS LONG AS you are invested properly for your goals and risk tolerance.

 

Now, who here is going to burn their Klipsch speakers because they went on sale?

 

Exactly.

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43 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

The great opportunity IMHO is NOW. I am 100%+ short this entire market. 

 

if this is genuinely true...  then I'd be concerned for you.

 

Obviously, I don't know you nor you me.  My gut feeling is that you are a mature adult....  (meaning you are not 20,30,40,50...but I'm GUESSING in your 60's however, I again don't know this)

 

If you are within earshot of retiring and you are "100% short this entire market" then you are indeed, opening yourself up for a world of hurt.

 

Let me put it differently.....  if the market goes to ZERO, how much can you make?  (you are capped at the amount you shorted)

What if instead, the market DOUBLES, TRIPLES or worse?  There is unlimited upside risk whereas the market can only go down to zero.

 

Have you protected yourself by purchasing some protective calls?   Why short the market and face all that risk when instead, you could just get OUT of the market and sit on the sidelines....  Or, if you ARE near retirement age, you could put funds into 100% SAFE vehicles that still configure their returns to the performance of the stockmarket without any of the risks....

 

My experience with the fire & brimstone investors that share their hyperbole like you have, usually have an agenda or are simply clueless.

 

I ALSO felt that when you popped up with some of your amp comments and the 7.2304832 inch wiring requirements (or whatever they were).....  Personally, I felt that you were being a loon about that stuff however, I fully and freely admit I don't have the background nor knowledge to personally assess it's merits so I just shut up and rolled my eyes.

 

I have heard this doom & gloom for 33 years.  There is ALWAYS someone spouting this froth and yet, here we are at all time highs (relatively speaking)

 

I was on the front lines both as an investor AND broker during the crash of 1987 where the market fell 25% in a single day.  I personally got EXCITED about it because I felt it was a great buying opportunity.  Today in hindsight......

 

So the people that sold & got out (threw their ammo away) sealed their fates.  Those that stayed put and did nothing are today, back in good condition.  Those who bought extra ammo during the sale, made out like bandits.

 

 

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On 1/27/2020 at 6:10 AM, polizzio said:

 

Ah.....that's three words.

No soup for you!

 

 

 

It would be a LOT smarter and wiser to be in . . . 

 

 

 

Jeff Medwin

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If you really believe that slurp, you should just buy some Puts (options) to allow you to protect your portfolio.....you could sell some in (or DEEPLY in) the money calls against your position....

 

What I'm hearing you suggest to people is to expose themselves to outrageous risks when you could still protect your downside WHILE keeping your holdings for future growth.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

The great opportunity IMHO is NOW. I am 100%+ short this entire market. 

 

Jeff Medwin

 

Only amateurs or fools are 100% anything concerning investments and their portfolio. Diversity in personal investing is rule #1.

 

We shall see in the coming days how your wonderful predictions plays out.

 

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12 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 have no clue !!  

 

It is financially impossible to dollar cost average a bear market, or, be a bull in the bear market. 

 

Ummm....  Dollar Cost Averaging is taking a set amount of dollars and making repetitive purchases of something.....  when it's up, your funds will buy fewer shares and when it's down, those same funds will buy extra shares.

 

How is this impossible to do regardless of the market?

 

If something DOES take a punch in the nose and someone hangs in there....  please name me a SINGLE TIME in history where simply hanging on (and buying more if possible) hasn't made sense.

 

The very fact that we're near all time highs PROVES that had anyone taken the calm course of action at virtually any time during history would today, be sitting in a fantastic position.

 

On the other hand, those that panicked, got out or did other stupid gymnastics, THEY are the ones that sealed their fates.

 

So, about your comment about having no clue.....  :ph34r:

 

All my comments are predicated that someone is "INVESTING" and not GAMBLING.  If they are gambling in the market, then all bets are off.  If they are investing, then I'll stick by my comments (and might have more when I get home from work and see what I've missed!!!)

 

:emotion-19:

 

 

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Lol.  I knew this thread would be a hoot.

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On 1/27/2020 at 7:00 AM, Coytee said:

If you really believe that slurp, you should just buy some Puts (options) to allow you to protect your portfolio.....you could sell some in (or DEEPLY in) the money calls against your position....

 

What I'm hearing you suggest to people is to expose themselves to outrageous risks when you could still protect your downside WHILE keeping your holdings for future growth.

 

 

 

 

 

Actually, I feel you and for sure, the general public, are the ones NOW exposing themselves to outrageous risks, unsuspecting lambs on the way to slaughter, if owning any "long" portfolio at this juncture. 

 

I became a Registered Representative of a NYSE Member Firm,  ( a stockbroker ) in December 1968.  In 1984 I gave up my "book-of-clients" and moved from my office in Beverly Hills, to the Mid-West., when I personally bought and owned a seat in my own name on the Kansas City Board of Trade.  Worked full-time in the industry from 1968 until 1988.

 

You are right, you do have no experience with wire , probably don't design tube amps,  etc.  I am a protege of Robert W. Fulton, the individual who DID the lab work !!  Its 57 1/8th inches by the way- and multiples and divisors.  Good luck to you.

 

Jeffrey Medwin

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Oh, Shut up... :P

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10 minutes ago, CECAA850 said:

Lol.  I knew this thread would be a hoot.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Coytee said:

Oh, Shut up... :P

 

Jeffrey posted prior to me seeing it.....and THIS above snide remark is NOT directed at him but rather directed to Carl.

 

I'll try to do an edit so it won't seem so rude.

 

My apologies to Jeffrey if it (understandably) appears it was directed at him, it wasn't....  was just bad timing.

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54 minutes ago, CECAA850 said:

Lol.  I knew this thread would be a hoot.

 

 

Time will tell.  An unprecedented UP, can create an unprecedented DOWN, and I hope to be helping some who may be thinking about what I posted, to act conservatively, go fully into cash.

 

Look at what the Futures trading of the Dow is showing, 7:36 my CST time, down over 470 Dow points about an hour brfore the opening.  Is this the beginning, after Friday's down, we shall see.

 

Gee Carl, I figured out what Forum to properly post these ( non religious ) comments.  Have yourself a great day.  I will be keenly watching markets TODAY.   I am sometimes a risk taker,  'am 100% short. and could lose my rear end. 

 

Jeff Medwin

 

           

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Coronavirus reaction. All the limes are in danger! You are going to have to drink that terrible beer on its own.

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Experts have predicted 8 of the last 3 bear markets... 🙂

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Thing is....  (newsflash) the market IS going to go down.....

 

You tend to lose an audience when you speak in hyperbole and are all fire & brimstone.

 

You may believe it and that's fine.

 

What if for example, I told you that I had a voice in the back of my head in 2007 that said to get out of the market for six months and don't even think about it....

 

Then during that time frame you get out HOWEVER, you end up concentrating (as in 100%) into a couple oil stocks and during the time frame when the markets were down about 50% you were UP about 70%.

 

Sounds too good to be true and you might call BS on that story!!!

 

That is exactly why I don't talk about it too much, as it is a true story.

 

Who was right and who was wrong?

 

 

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