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Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?


Jeff Matthews

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

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  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

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Just now, Jeff Matthews said:

Sure, we can see it differently.  I think the market was/is due for a substantial correction; it's just we had no bad news to precipitate the fall.  Then, a fear of pandemic comes along, and guess what?

The percentages argument.  It is valid.  A great hitter might get on a multigame hit streak, but eventually the averages will come into play.  Regression to the mean.  However, an event of 80 or 90 percent down is extremely rare as we see, and then the conditions were completely different in many ways.

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Just now, oldtimer said:

The percentages argument.  It is valid.  A great hitter might get on a multigame hit streak, but eventually the averages will come into play.  Regression to the mean.  However, an event of 80 or 90 percent down is extremely rare as we see, and then the conditions were completely different in many ways.

You mean like the player injures his arm?

 

Yeah, I don't know about the 80-90% drop prognosis, and I sure hope not.  I'm up for a 2008 scenario - no problem.  I sure would hate to lose a decade or 2, though.  2 decades is about all the time I have left.

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5 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Nasty.

 

He posted his credentials in his original "the market will drop 40%" thread, the one he was banned from. The one with his opening $66 a share AAPL prediction. Stated he was a trained pro market trader years ago.

You seem to have issues with the truth, with the facts. Why is this?

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5 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

Polizzio, you haven't figured it out yet !!  I said " at the bottom" there is a gap to fill 62-66 bucks. 

 

No one knows where / when this bottom will be.  It will not be on the fourth day down.

 

I am looking for $20 to $50 on MSFT too !!  

 

We dropped 84% in 1929.  2020 was 50% more extended than 1929, my posts from Jill Mislinsky CLEARLY show this.   But you were all greedy, rather than being fearful.  Whats to say the market drops 90% in value this time ?  We are ALL set up for it !!  

Times were different then, we have mechanisms in place to catch falling knives - to some degree.

 

Calling for a 80-90% drop in market price is quite absurd, and should it happen you wouldn't be likely too concerned with the loss of your investment, rather, you'd likely be concerned with defending yourself / family / property from every human being you encounter as they would all have turned into zombies with that type of downfall.

 

Koombaya

 

 

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Just now, Jeff Matthews said:

Why use words like these?  

 

Instead of, "Hey, Mr. smarty-pants, know it all, thinks he's God..."  How about something like, "You came on pretty strong..."

 

Now that is a straight up personal insult. One I will not resort to....

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21 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

Polizzio, you haven't figured it out yet !!  I said " at the bottom" there is a gap to fill 62-66 bucks. 

 

No one knows where / when this bottom will be.  It will not be on the fourth day down.

 

I am looking for $20 to $50 on MSFT too !!  

Jeff 

 

You didn't answer me Medwin, may you missed my question above. Is this what you advocate I do right now? My best move? 100% short the market, my entire portfolio?

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17 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Let me pick your brain, though.  We've had quite a long run up since 2008.  Did you think we were going to keep going up another 5 or 10 years?  You had no intuitive feeling whatsoever that, "This is going to end soon?"

Slim pickins.  Overall my feeling is that it would trend up yes.  I really didn't see a bubble burst coming but take a pretty low risk/low reward approach to my 401k due to retirement approaching.

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