Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

[Jeff Matthews]

4 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

Why do you continuously think one-dimensionally Jeff? 

You probably misunderstand my posts.  I am not advocating for anything.  I am raising questions.  I realize there's a place for the pros to engage in timing.  Some will be winners, and some will be losers.  Show me a guy who never lost, and I'll show you a guy who never played the game.

[Coytee]

On 3/6/2020 at 7:48 AM, mr clean said:

Im in the process of getting one of my pensions this month. Im taking a lump sum.

 

Obviously I don't know any of your specific details.

 

Taking you at face value, you are going to be trading a guaranteed lifetime income for something that CAN be outlived....  Not the first recommendation I'd make without other facts known.

 

Then again, you do say "one" of them.....  suggesting you might have more than one (good for you!!)

 

Irrespective of that, go back to (again, what I presume to be for you) guaranteed lifetime income for "X" amount of cash up front which, can be outlived.

 

(as someone who spent his mothers assets down.....100% paid for condo, gone, car gone and $500K dwindled down to $30K all to pay for nursing home) I might be more sensitive to the idea of lifetime income.

[Emile]

Yes; market "halted" this morning ... thought about buying back in, but decided to stay on the sidelines a little longer  

[mr clean]

It usually drops like a rock, and comes back much slower.I am talking to my money guy today. Its really a good time to buy if you have the stones.  

[mr clean]

4 hours ago, Coytee said:

 

Obviously I don't know any of your specific details.

 

Taking you at face value, you are going to be trading a guaranteed lifetime income for something that CAN be outlived....  Not the first recommendation I'd make without other facts known.

 

Then again, you do say "one" of them.....  suggesting you might have more than one (good for you!!)

 

Irrespective of that, go back to (again, what I presume to be for you) guaranteed lifetime income for "X" amount of cash up front which, can be outlived.

 

(as someone who spent his mothers assets down.....100% paid for condo, gone, car gone and $500K dwindled down to $30K all to pay for nursing home) I might be more sensitive to the idea of lifetime income.

I am getting 2 pensions. One im getting monthly starting at 60. The other im taking as a lump. I have saved a lot also. I won't put all my eggs in one basket. Saving was about all I ever did that was smart. I can't predict the future, but im pretty sure I will be fine. I never had kids to drain my savings lol. I would never say im 100 percent sure.  Life does not work that way. I really am kind of glad the market is taking a dip. I wanted it to before I retire hoping to ride 8 to 10 years on a good part of the cycle. I live a pretty simple life. I have a nice small home in the sticks. I like to travel when I want and have a dependable ride or two. Thats about it. I can have fun just taking a drive out in the sticks, or going out to eat. 

[mr clean]

Im going to listen to the guy at edward jones, He is very sharp, and frugal as heck. I will listen to what he has to say, and he knows I want to make money, but not do silly things. I will see what he has to say. Im not a financial wizard by any stretch. But if I don't agree with him I know how to say no also.  

[Jeff Matthews]

54 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 Sold out some TVIX this AM at 290s- and a bit over 300 when the Dow was -2,200 pints.

Nice return!  I hope you had a ton of dough in there.

[sputnik]

I'm pretty much just a lurker here lately but I did want to thank Jeffery D Medwin for his posts to date.  I'm certainly no savvy trader but, thinking the market was way overvalued, I'd been going more and more into cash this year anyway.  When you made your first recommendation in February, I was already about 60% cash.  After reading your post and doing a bit of research, I went to 75% cash, but kept a few that I had already trimmed back (Apple, Amazon, ATT and couple of others) and then put 5% into the four stocks (TVIX, SSG, EDZ, & TZA) you mentioned with about half with of that into TVIX at around $39/share.  Since then, I haven't made a killing but I'm up just about 5%, all in all, and happy just to have avoided a big loss.  I should have taken your advice to the letter but I thought I should balance it just bit - I've lost some $ playing the VIX before.  Seems like anything with a "VIX" in its symbol needs to be actively traded by people who know what they're doing.  I have sold and bought back some shares a couple of times, as you have (except today unfortunately), so I'm pretty much playing with the "casino's" money now and my mix now at about 7% in TVIX and 80% cash.  Just wanted to say thanks for your posts here and taking all the flac ( correction, I meant flak not FLAC 😄). 

[Emile]

1 hour ago, mr clean said:

Im going to listen to the guy at edward jones, He is very sharp, and frugal as heck.

Good idea, but ... most of these experts are "still working at their jobs," meaning they did not retire on their market earnings   And of course they (nor anyone else) can predict highs/lows.  

[JJkizak]

4 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

No wheres near any real capitulation yet.   Usually drops can last 38 trading days down............ if QUICK.   

 

WE ( my two trading friends and I ) are NOT going long here at all, we passed.   Sold out some TVIX this AM at 290s- and a bit over 300 when the Dow was -2,200 pints.  Bought it back 20 minutes later, scalped, and re-established the position. 

 

Bear markets, are opposite bull markets Emile, wait to  sell rallies, do not buy dips, except to cover short sales previously made.

 

How do you handle the "washes" on the income tax?

JJK

[JJkizak]

If the price of oil remains at $30.00 a barrel for a length of time there a re a lot of USA companies that may go bankrupt.

JJK

[Emile]

OK, per @Jeffrey D. Medwin's recommendations going to buy some TVIX tomorrow haha, when the market goes UP  

[sputnik]

"A great opportunity exists now."

 

I agree. 

 

 " You seem to be doing something that they never taught me to do, is there ANY way you could teach me HOW to do this? " 

 

I'm just a dabbler but I am fascinated watching this market with the bit of insight I've gained in this and the other thread. 

 

...................but then again, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

[Emile]

1 hour ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

I HOPE you are joking.  Never chase a stock.  TVIX was suggested on January 27 in the 40s, in my FIRST stock market thread up here. It hit 302 this morning.

I do NOT recommend it now, no matter what it does.  

Understand the highly volitale nature of TVIX  But, saved about $250K getting "out" so willing to gamble with a couple of dollars   Don't worry; will watch it every minute  

[geoff.]

I googled TVIX when it was first mentioned on here.

 

I have so little in the market, enough to buy an entry level car, manual shift, lol, that I left my highly conservative “portfolio” (lmao) as is.

 

But I do have an untapped line of credit.

 

Never even occurred to me to run it up on TVIX.

 

I would have been able to pay off my mortgage and then some had I tapped it out...

 

What is it they say about hindsight? 

[Jeff Matthews]

3 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

I HOPE you are joking.  Never chase a stock.  TVIX was suggested on January 27 in the 40s, in my FIRST stock market thread up here. It hit 302 this morning.

 

I do NOT recommend it now, no matter what it does.  

But if AAPL goes to 62, won't TVIX be out of this orbit?  Won't TVIX at 302 look like a bargain when the bear market is full-on?

[billybob]

This not a buy ATM...if and when it should lower to something respectable could you possibly entertain a position @Emile ...

and even then,. speaking to a volatility index read, stock issue.

This I will say as an independent, not to be interpreted as a stock advisor or recommendation.

Good fortune...

[garyrc]

Down ... then Up.

[billybob]

Just now, garyrc said:

Down ... then Up.

Depending...

[billybob]

14 hours ago, garyrc said:

Down ... then Up.

Yes