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Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?


Jeff Matthews

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

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  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

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I’m thinking it might be a good time to trim back a bit (maybe 20%) on TVIX (and the other inverse fund) holdings and lock in a little profit?  Is there a reason to expect even higher values in the near term?

 

Don’t want to be too greedy.

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2 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

Rally??   Sure.  I will SELL into it. VERY tricky to judge. Will re-buy TVIX .  2 to 3 1/2 days is typical, maybe 3 months at best. 

With the market down by 1/3, you would sell if it goes back up say - 10% - or even less?

 

Before your OP, I never really knew about trading on volatility.  What an odd way to gamble, but people will gamble on anything.  So, when you say, "Will re-buy TVIX," is that because you expect a rally to be volatile, meaning you expect TVIX to keep going up from its current value?  (If so, that seems to be different than you prior post a handful of days ago telling everyone who missed the TVIX to stay away from it because it's too late to get in now.)

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I only gambled enough to not lose but I'm still happy to be up by 10% since 02/27/2020 and a little smarter thanks to JDM's posts.  Would've been a whole lot smarter and happier had I followed his advice to the letter when I invested 2% in TVIX at $39.

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9 minutes ago, sputnik said:

I invested 2% in TVIX at $39

Awesome! You made a killing!  I bought TVIX at $200 and sold it the next day ... then bought it at $300 and sold it 20 minutes later :D  Unfortunately I did not have enough "balls" to buy a large lot :( 

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9 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

How many Forum Members half- heartedly followed the suggestion ?

AFAICT, ...only three,  and they all half did it !! 

OK; "guilty." :D  But at least I made it into the "3 people" club. :) 

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2 hours ago, Emile said:

Awesome! You made a killing!  I bought TVIX at $200 and sold it the next day ... then bought it at $300 and sold it 20 minutes later :D  Unfortunately I did not have enough "balls" to buy a large lot :( 

 

I didn't really make much of a killing.  I was going to go totally into cash in February just because the market seemed to be on thin ice.  No sophisticated analysis on my part - just a feeling that the market was not stable after so much juicing.  Seemed like anything negative could trigger a collapse like tossing a bowling ball to the guy out there on the thin ice - if not a pandemic then maybe fragile oil markets or the Chinese real estate bubble would finally pop. 

 

After reading JDM's original posts, I did do the research (as he suggested) before making any investment moves and I decided that I'd balance the TVIX and other inverse fund purchases (TZA, EDZ, and SSG) by holding on to small amounts of Amazon, Apple, ATT, CentyryLink, and DIA (Dow tracking ETF) that dragged me back down some.  It was interesting, though, that over the past couple of weeks, I made a little profit every day with that balance whether the market went up or down.  The first down day was last Friday, after the stupid press conference ( I had rebalanced and was still up about 3% just before that).  My original goal was just to be totally in cash to re-invest when the market took a big hit.  Sold off some more of the TVIX this morning at what seemed like a reasonable profit and have cashed in more than my original investment but I'm still holding on to enough to now make up about 12% of my portfolio at current pricing. 

 

Correction:  Just checked and TVIX is now 16% of my modest portfolio.

2nd Correction:  16.5% (after selling a bit more at $624 just ahead of the close)

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Wow!  TVIX hit $1,000 today.  After having only partially followed JDM’s initial suggestion, I’m happy to be up about 23% right now.  I’ve been selling off shares of TVIX on the way up but I’m still holding about 8% of my portfolio in TVIX and the rest is in cash just waiting to be invested in the rubble of the final market blow-out.  I’m only posting today to “publically” thank Jeff for continuing to offer his insights here despite a few somewhat snarky comments.  I’ll never be an investment wizard but I have learned quite a bit and maybe others have as well.

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10 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

EDITED 1 P.M. , C.S.T.

$1,000!  Congratulations!  I'm envious!

 

Is there similar money to be made on the next trend (up)?  Do you plan to bet against TVIX in any opposite-moving security with similarly drastic swings?  If so, when and what do you have in mind?

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Logically, to reverse the trade, would you not take five percent of your portfolio and put it into an etf that is long 2x the s&p?  It's simply a leveraged long fund.  And if you were so ballsy to call the bottom, you would also reinvest that 95% cash into stocks, (to keep it simple a low cost index fund).  All you have to do is call the bottom or near enough within let's say, 10%, because the bottom is more about the percentage and getting back in than the perfect timing...just thinking out loud.  First, you would be getting back in for normal, and second, you would be leveraging a small amount to the upside (juicing it so to speak)'

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8 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Logically, to reverse the trade, would you not take five percent of your portfolio and put it into an etf that is long 2x the s&p?  It's simply a leveraged long fund.  And if you were so ballsy to call the bottom, you would also reinvest that 95% cash into stocks, (to keep it simple a low cost index fund).  All you have to do is call the bottom or near enough within let's say, 10%, because the bottom is more about the percentage and getting back in than the perfect timing...just thinking out loud.  First, you would be getting back in for normal, and second, you would be leveraging a small amount to the upside (juicing it so to speak)'

All stuff that just makes my head swirl.  All I know is TVIX soared.  If it can soar, it can fall just as fast.  Medwin's original chart showed that years back, TVIX was literally out of this orbit - like $2MM.  What goes up...

 

If you can go up like that with 5%, you can go the opposite direction.  There has to be a hedge that's just as volatile in the opposite direction.  Maybe TVIX doesn't move much in a stable, growing S&P 500.  Maybe it needs massive exuberance to the same level as the current panic.

 

Interestingly, as risky as TVIX is, Medwin patiently sat on it for a month before it took off.  I'm curious to what he has to say so maybe I can make a few million, too!  It's never too late, right?

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