Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

[oldtimer]

2 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

It's never too late, right?

It's only too late when it is.  So yes.

[sputnik]

32 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

It's only too late when it is.  So yes.

If your portfolio lost 33%, it’ll have to re-gain 50% just to break even.💸

[oldtimer]

Yep, that's math alright.  The price (points) are the same.  If you lose 50 points, it takes 50 points back up to break even.  Dollars are dollars.  The percentages are different due to a different base of comparison, but you know that.  

 

If you lose a wife due to divorce (or other) you as a family unit of 2 are down 50%.  It takes a 100% gain to regain the former unit.  Remarry one wife and lo and behold, you have gained it all back to the original.  Percentages should not be used to intimidate.  It is just math.

[sputnik]

‘Yep, that's math alright.  The price (points) are the same.  If you lose 50 points, it takes 50 points back up to break even.  Dollars are dollars.  The percentages are different due to a diffherent base of comparison, but you know that.”

Yes, and certainly no intention to obfuscate, but odds are usually expressed as some sort of percentage or fraction.  The point is that you have to risk more of your holdings to make up a loss.  Whenever the Las Vegas casinos open again and you decide to sit down at a blackjack table with an initial stake of $150 and lose a $50 bet having risked 1/3 of your stake, you’ll now have to risk half of your remaining stack of chips to just to get even.  Even though the odds are the same and you’re placing $50 dollar bets each time, your risk is higher to make up a loss.  I have no idea of how assess risk in complex financial markets where average rates of return aren’t fixed, like blackjack (that is, if you stick to basic strategy), but vary depending on the time frame and market conditions; however, I think you’d still have to assume more risk in order to win back what you’ve lost.

 

[Jeff Matthews]

14 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

TYPICALLY, USUALLY, the best course of action , if you got caught holding stocks as the top ( holding the bag ) is to liquidate 100% INTO the first rally, scaling in, a fraction at a time, as it goes up.  ***********************

 

The TRICKY part is, no one knows in advance, how the rally will proceed !! No one.The rally can ( and does , often ) take 2 to 3  1/2 days, or, stretch out for 2 -3 months.  My comment  :   everything seems to be happening faster, with the communication networks we have in 2020,

I have the same hunch about speed.  So, when would your gut tell you we're in a rally?  Seems like it could almost be too late by the time you see it.   You mean like going up 5,000 points?  Or something much smaller?

 

Just curious about your comment, "this three-some I work with will try to play for a market rally, by going long. "  So, they disagree with you and don't think we are on the way down a 95% drop?

 

 

 

 

[Jeff Matthews]

1 minute ago, sputnik said:

Yes, and certainly no intention to obfuscate, but odds are usually expressed as some sort of percentage or fraction.  The point is that you have to risk more of your holdings to make up a loss.  Whenever the Las Vegas casinos open again and you decide to sit down at a blackjack table with an initial stake of $150 and lose a $50 bet having risked 1/3 of your stake, you’ll now have to risk half of your remaining stack of chips to just to get even.  Even though the odds are the same and you’re placing $50 dollar bets each time, your risk is higher to make up a loss.  I have no idea of how assess risk in complex financial markets where average rates of return aren’t fixed, like blackjack (that is, if you stick to basic strategy), but vary depending on the time frame and market conditions; however, I think you’d still have to assume more risk in order to win back what you’ve lost.

 

I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong (and might have to), but to the extent we are talking about hedges, I don't think your analysis is all that relevant.  If TVIX drops 95%, its perfect hedge (maybe it doesn't exist) would rise 2000%.

[sputnik]

10 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong (and might have to), but to the extent we are talking about hedges, I don't think your analysis is all that relevant.  If TVIX drops 95%, its perfect hedge (maybe it doesn't exist) would rise 2000%.

I wasn’t talking about hedging, just my experience in our Saturday night poker games that you have to risk more when your chip stack is down.

[Jeff Matthews]

1 minute ago, sputnik said:

I wasn’t talking about hedging, just my experience in our Saturday night poker games that you have to risk more when your chip stack is down.

I see.  I'm looking for a similar strategy if it exists - namely, put 5% into something and see if it does like has happened with TVIX over the last few weeks.  If it's now 7%, myeh.  

[sputnik]

‘Bear Market, Sell decent rallies”

 

I assume that applies to equities.  In a Bear Market, would you also say to Buy inverse funds in decent rallies?

[Arrow#422]

Seems rational....

Or,

you could stand on your head, and with the charts in their normal orientation, buy the dips in those inverse funds as they occur.

 

[Emile]

16 hours ago, Jeff Matthews said:

There has to be a hedge that's just as volatile in the opposite direction.

Look at https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/funds-and-etfs ... you'll find some "opposite" ETN's   

[billybob]

Got some word that some pharmacy stocks bear watching.

Not a recc...DD first.

[JJkizak]

On Consuelo Mac yesterday the man (Kessler) said something funny going on with the Treasury and the Feds don't know what and the banks don't know what and Kessler doesn't know what is going on. He said JP Morgan doesn't know what is going on. He said beware of something bigger than 2008 going to happen.

JJK

[Jeff Matthews]

Down down 612. TVIX down 131.  Why are they moving in the same direction?

[sputnik]

PM sent.

[Jeff Matthews]

11 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

EDIT  :   Jeff Matthews, we did fall 35% , and I voted for that in your Original Posted Survey.  But it was in a month, not six months.  Any chance of you initiating a new six months' survey, with voting choices expanded to about plus and minus 65% ??

The 6 months isn't over, yet.  Just wait and see...

[Emile]

Well ?????  Dow up 11.4% and I sat on the sidelines  OK; waiting for "day 2."  

[Jeff Matthews]

2 minutes ago, Emile said:

Well ?????  Dow up 11.4% and I sat on the sidelines  OK; waiting for "day 2."  

Did you sell TVIX on its high?

[Emile]

1 hour ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Did you sell TVIX on its high?

Nah ... played it a couple of times with market up, TVIX low ... made about 20% each time, but did not have enough "balls" to hold it through the day.  Did not buy any today   

[Jeff Matthews]

Looks like the rally is here.

 

Is $2 trillion in stimulus enough to overcome those looming factors?

 

Plus, Uncle Sam has promised whatever it takes if more is needed.

 

Do you still think the DJIA is going to be this low or lower in the next 5 months?