Jump to content

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?


Jeff Matthews

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

This poll is closed to new votes

  • Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.
  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

Recommended Posts

Just now, Emile said:

Believe it is $2T via the Coronovirus bill and $4T via the Fed.

That's a ton of money!  Whether it's credit or not, it's big liquidity.  Everyone with credit cards knows you can live on them for a while.  This is why I ask whether the big capitulation will be delayed a year or more.

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I say again---Trump mentioned off hand 6 trillion dollars. I know that it is 2 trillion. I think he also mentioned 1.6 trillion and off hand later said 6 trillion probably by mistake forgetting the 1 in front of the 6.

JJK

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

By the way, what platform do you all use for trading?  Edward Jones requires you to call in trade orders to your rep.  

 

No disrespect to your Jones guy/gal....they're trying to make a living.

 

One reason I'm glad I've made the changes I've made is I saw the writing on the wall years ago that stock/ETF commissions were heading to zero and if that is part of your business.....your income is going to dwindle.

 

As Emile says, Fidelity.  I use TD-Ameritrade (disclosure:  I used to work there before they downsized.....second disclosure, they have inked a buyout where they are being bought by Charles Schwab pending regulatory approval)

 

They have a pretty in depth platform "Think or Swim" for those who are REALLY REALLY into it.....  for those who simply want to buy 40 shares of ABC stock....  their basic platform is totally sufficient (no costs for the Think or Swim access either)

 

I am not familar with them but I'd imagine Schwab is also ok....

 

E-Trade

 

I'm hitting a deadlock now on names.  Part of someone's process might be to what degree do they need their hands held.

 

Many firms (I think Jones might be one but don't want to say it) were not well prepared when Obama signed the laws that heightened the fiduciary rules for firms.....  thus, many firms (I think Jones would be in this group) made a mad dash to "Tell" (as I understand) people that they WERE going to be moved to a managed account or.....  are going to be expected to move their accounts.  (or something similar to this logic)

 

Many firms were snake-bit with the new regulations and many firms were ok as they had a different business model.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."

 

Sounds good, but it's trite.    Not any better than advice to "Buy low and sell high."

 

People staying in the market out of fear of missing a rally to get their money back... are they greedy?  Maybe.  I guess you can be fearful and greedy at the same time.

 

Anyway, I like your posts.  

 

Putting current holdings aside, let's talk about continuing to add to your retirement plan.  If you are conditioned to investing on a monthly basis and now is not the time to buy, where would you put your new money?  

 

Different question:  If you wanted to try to make a good gamble with a small amount where would you go now?

 

I'm interested in both of these questions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Coytee said:

No disrespect to your Jones guy/gal....they're trying to make a living.

 

One reason I'm glad I've made the changes I've made is I saw the writing on the wall years ago that stock/ETF commissions were heading to zero and if that is part of your business.....your income is going to dwindle.

I'm seeing $0.00 commissions on stock trades, etc.  How are they making money?

 

Do you pay a percentage when you sell and take your cash out?  Some kind of annual fee? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

I'm seeing $0.00 commissions on stock trades, etc.  How are they making money?

 

Do you pay a percentage when you sell and take your cash out?  Some kind of annual fee? 

 

No...  if you only buy stocks, ETF's and perhaps a handful of mutual funds, zero commission is zero commission.

 

They are either making it up in other products or, perhaps this is still going on.

 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/paymentoforderflow.asp

 

When I managed a small local firm, we were contacted about "how to send our order flow to (whoever the firm was calling)"

 

I essentially hung on them as I personally don't care for it and don't believe in it....  but it did help drive commissions to zero.  (my opinion)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Coytee said:
1 hour ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

It took 21 years after 1929, to get even,

 

How long did it take to get even after the 50% draw down of 2008-2009?

 

Big difference!

 

The government did almost nothing until 1932 - when it passed acts to stimulate home construction/buying and to construct public works projects.  By that time, the damage was too severe and irreversible.

 

Compare to now, when the government injects $2 trillion into the economy within just a few weeks.  (TARP happened quite quickly in 2008 as well).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

$2T / 330M persons in the USA = about $6000 per person in stimulus....not likely enough to dig us out of the hole even with an Economics 101 multiplier effect.

Current National Debt = $24T / 330M persons = $72,500 each + the proposed $2T = about $80K of debt load per person in the USA. 

 

(add) debt per person not that long ago was running about $50K per person.  Not many in this nation could write either check amount to get us to even.  It seems everyone was able to "wet their beak" so to speak back in the '09 debacle, now that taste seemingly permeates society as a sense of entitlement of the good life regardless of the work ethic, dedication, commitment to the necessary means to achieve such a level of economic comfort.  There's always exceptions, but if you hustle like you're poor & make it you likely earned it. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Volatility is where it happens.

 

Truer words have never been spoken!

 

I have often told people that "In volatility, is opportunity"

 

So, if that holds true, there is a lot of opportunity out there right now.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • dtel locked and unlocked this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...