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Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?


Jeff Matthews

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

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  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

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3 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, says“When it comes to this lending, we’re not going to run out of ammunition, that doesn’t happen,” Powell told NBC’s Savannah Guthrie. “We still have policy room in other dimensions to support the economy.”

Rather Bullish from the fed...

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The Fed is stepping in and being far more proactive than in 2008.  In 2008, we had a foreclosure crisis.  This time, they are planning ahead with a massive program for the Fed to loan mortgage holders money to cover payments that will be deferred for homeowners up to 180 days, with a 180 day extension possible.

 

Listen to the music!

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24 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

If there is a full recovery by the end of the year, consider that it will result in a 33% return from today.

Not to mention there was a 21% return over just the last 3 days.  It's not as exciting when you're just barely recouping your losses, but if you put in new money 4 days ago, that's an enviable return.

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1 hour ago, Jeff Matthews said:

The Fed is stepping in and being far more proactive than in 2008.  In 2008, we had a foreclosure crisis.  This time, they are planning ahead with a massive program for the Fed to loan mortgage holders money to cover payments that will be deferred for homeowners up to 180 days, with a 180 day extension possible.

 

Listen to the music!

 

I am still missing the warm and fuzzy feeling of having a deferred mortgage that I won’t be able to pay in six months because I HAVE NOT BEEN WORKING!

 

Okay, so a year form now I can pay it back...

 

With what? 

 

Here lies the crux of the COVID crises: who the hell is going to voluntarily stop working so they can forfeit their house?!

 

Mortgages must be PAID by the government while State of Emergency exists.

 

Pay my mortgage, I will weave flags in my basement while I stay safe at home!

 

Everybody gets paid, everybody stays home, everything gets backs to “normal” sooner.

 

Or we drag it on with half a$$ measures that place a bandage on a haemorrhage. 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

A Bear would say, " The first leg down ended precisely where it should.  No capitulation yet.   Now we will have a Bear Market rally. "

Maybe we'll get 2 bears for the price of 1.

 

Have you looked at the Shanghai Composite as a possible lead indicator?

 

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Here's a synopsis of today's bill (emphasis mine):

 

Quote

The legislation will give $1,200 direct payments to individuals and make way for a flood of subsidized loans, grants and tax breaks to businesses facing extinction in an economic shutdown caused as Americans self-isolate by the tens of millions. It dwarfs prior Washington efforts to take on economic crises and natural disasters, such as the 2008 Wall Street bailout and President Barack Obama’s first-year economic recovery act.

 

But key elements are untested, such as grants to small businesses to keep workers on payroll and complex lending programs to larger businesses.

Policymakers worry that bureaucracies like the Small Business Administration may become overwhelmed, and conservatives fear that a new, generous unemployment benefit will dissuade jobless people from returning to the workforce. A new $500 billion subsidized lending program for larger businesses is unproven as well.

 

The bill finances a response with a price tag that equals half the size of the entire $4 trillion-plus annual federal budget. The $2.2 trillion estimate is the White House’s best guess of the spending it contains.

 

The legislation would provide one-time direct payments to Americans of $1,200 per adult making up to $75,000 a year and $2,400 to a married couple making up to $150,000, with $500 payments per child.

 

Unemployment insurance would be made far more generous, with $600 per week tacked onto regular state jobless payments through the end of July. States and local governments would receive $150 billion in supplemental funding to help them provide basic and emergency services during the crisis.

The legislation also establishes a $454 billion program for guaranteed, subsidized loans to larger industries in hopes of leveraging up to $4.5 trillion in lending to distressed businesses, states, and municipalities. All would be up to the Treasury Department’s discretion, though businesses controlled by Trump or immediate family members and by members of Congress would be ineligible.

 

There was also $150 billion devoted to the health care system, including $100 billion for grants to hospitals and other health care providers buckling under the strain of COVID-19 caseloads.

 

Republicans successfully pressed for an employee retention tax credit that’s estimated to provide $50 billion to companies that retain employees on payroll and cover 50% of workers’ paycheck up to $10,000. Companies would also be able to defer payment of the 6.2% Social Security payroll tax. A huge tax break for interest costs and operating losses limited by the 2017 tax overhaul was restored at a $200 billion cost in a boon for the real estate sector.

 

An additional $45 billion would fund additional relief through the Federal Emergency Management Agency for local response efforts and community services.

 

 

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On more than one occasion, I've asked Mr. Medwin to go to the HIGH price of Coke (KO) prior to the market crash of 1929 since he seems enamored about the values of that time period.

 

I've put slight effort into it today and can only find pricing going back to 1962 so I'm missing 33 years.

 

I'm pretty darn comfortable contending that the price of Coke stock 33 years PRIOR to 1962 was probably below the price IN 1962....but I wasn't there so we'll deal with what we have.

 

I contended that if someone bought KO at the high PRIOR to the crash of 1929, "why would they care" today that it's crashing down???  Their basis in the stock would be so small....

 

Here's a copy paste of what I found for 1962.  What you see below is a 1962 price of essentially .27 cents per share.  Now, this is a share adjusted price...  it might have been "$15" back then but, because of splits, the price would have dropped....

 

So, with KO today at $47, who would be agasint having bought it during the worst decline in the market in 1929???

Note that TODAY, KO's annual dividend is $1.64 so had you bought it in 1962 at .27, you would be netting today, a 500% rate of return annually.

 

How is that a bad thing if you bought it then and today, it drops 50% in value???

 

 

Date Open High Low Close Adj Close   
1/2/1962 0.263021 0.270182 0.263021 0.263021 0.004238  
1/3/1962 0.259115 0.259115 0.253255 0.257161 0.004143         
1/4/1962 0.257813 0.261068 0.257813 0.259115 0.004175            
1/5/1962 0.259115 0.26237 0.252604 0.253255 0.00408        
1/8/1962 0.251302 0.251302 0.245768 0.250651 0.004038         
           

 

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I can't speak to others....

 

But if directed at me....  yeah and it's killing me!!!  I'm forced to work from home right now.  I usually drive over 2,000 miles/month so I DO have extra time on my hands!

 

Since this is what I 'do', I'm already doing things like this so it's not taking any extra of my time, just a slight detour from my daily routine.

 

Still....  was a nice video!!

 

:emotion-21:

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