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Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?


Jeff Matthews

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

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  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

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Not that I really want to perpetuate this thread....but I'd like to raise (what I feel is) a serious point.

 

First and again, my congrats to @Jeffrey D. Medwin for calling this crushing market.  I was expecting the market to "go down" prior to the election and have been pounding that into the heads of the people I speak with (state employees) HOWEVER, in no way did I expect it to go down as brutally (and exactly like he said it would)....  so for that, I again, want to congratulate him.

 

But....that brings me to my point.....  Since this is the wild wild west of the internet.....there might have been people here or lurkers who took Mr. Medwin's comments dear to heart and if they did and capitalized on it, power to them.  There might be others who simply jumped out and saved their skins....and again, power to them.

 

He was so adamant (and again, was correct) that everyone should get out by "X" date....  and now that this has come to pass.....  I dearly hope that he will give us just as precise of timing on the best time to get back in.

 

If the market goes back to where it was and he caused someone to sit on the sidelines and they miss it, well.....  I think that is a bit of a disservice to them.

 

So, what are your thoughts/signals as to when someone should go back into the market to the degree they might have been in it prior to the downturn??

 

 

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47 minutes ago, Coytee said:

 for calling this crushing market

I thought that he had a thread about the market being interesting the particular week of his thread.  Nothing happened.  I never saw any mention of the markets reaction to the covid virus in his prognostication.   Had it not been for the covid virus we may be up over 30k currently.  NO ONE saw the effect that the virus would have on the economy in the early stages and around the time of his initial thread.

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Yeah....  I mentioned earlier in the thread about Elaine Garzarelli and her "one hit wonder" where she totally nailed the crash of '87 and became quite the guru.....but....  if you watched her career and especially now in hindsight, she never called anything else of significance. So in my view, she was a one hit wonder (she got lucky)

 

Calling the market to go down (prior to the election is my specific point of reference) might be easy to do for a variety of reasons but, to pull out the stops, total frantic "get the heck outta dodge" that we heard from him was in hindsight, brilliance.....  or, another one hit wonder.

 

What I'd like to see Mr. Medwin do is tell us/our world with the SAME FERVOR when it's time to get back in.....  if he's right, THEN one might start to give some credence to his forecasts.....  

 

There is the old saying that even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now & then....  well.....  is this his nut?  (shrugs shoulders)

 

Personally, if he's as good calling BOTH up and down with the accuracy and degree he called this one, I'm VERY open to keeping an ear on what he has to say....  (I'd be foolish not to at least use it as a datapoint)  However, if this was just a one-hit wonder.... 

 

So, Mr. Medwin, if it sounds like i'm disrespecting you, I'll say here & now, that is NOT my intent.  I DO however, think it's fair game to put your feet to the fire a bit since you jumped into this with both of them.  "Putting you to the test" so to speak.  

 

Don't leave us hanging....  well, I'll be ok.  Don't leave those that might have listened to you either directly or by lurking, hanging.  

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2 hours ago, Coytee said:

If the market goes back to where it was and he caused someone to sit on the sidelines and they miss it, well.....  I think that is a bit of a disservice to them.

 

So, what are your thoughts/signals as to when someone should go back into the market to the degree they might have been in it prior to the downturn??

Just because he called it the first time doesn't mean he has to call it again.  

 

For those who listened to him, as you say, "Congratulations!"  Now, you're on your own.

 

I've been pressing Medwin for the same thoughts on when to get back in (not that I got out), and of course, his answer is, "When it hits the bottom."  He doesn't think it has hit bottom.  He thinks it is only half-way there (or less).  Take it FWIW.

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1 hour ago, CECAA850 said:

NO ONE saw the effect that the virus would have on the economy in the early stages and around the time of his initial thread.

... which is why I could kick myself in the pants!  How could you not see it coming?  By that time, China was shutting down in a huge way.  

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4 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Just because he called it the first time doesn't mean he has to call it again.  

 

 

Then he simply found a nut that by happenstance, coincided with the virus and got magnified.

 

In fairness to him, my wife said I had my head stuck in the sand.  Even through (what I now hope in past tense) was the worst of it, I wasn't bothered.  Doesn't mean I didn't LIKE it (and we were/are impacted by it)  I've just been to this dance before and my time horizon says "so what"....  it becomes a buying opportunity which is what I've been doing.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

How could you not see it coming?

Because of all the intentional dis-information coming from China.  I think that people as a whole started taking it more seriously after seeing what was happening in Italy.  At that point it was obvious that it wouldn't be contained.

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48 minutes ago, CECAA850 said:

Because of all the intentional dis-information coming from China.  I think that people as a whole started taking it more seriously after seeing what was happening in Italy.  At that point it was obvious that it wouldn't be contained.

I saw on the news this morning that Italy had DONATED PPE to China at the onset of this virus, now China is SELLING the gear back to Italy.  If true, what a jerk government they are.  it would be interesting to see the rest of the world give China a collective cold shoulder regarding everything. 

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3 minutes ago, BigStewMan said:

I saw on the news this morning that Italy had DONATED PPE to China at the onset of this virus, now China is SELLING the gear back to Italy.  If true, what a jerk government they are.  it would be interesting to see the rest of the world give China a collective cold shoulder regarding everything. 

It would be, but how can they turn down all of that cheap exploitable labor?

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Just now, oldtimer said:

It would be, but how can they turn down all of that cheap exploitable labor?

true ... and we (like the rest of the world) have painfully short memories. Unless it's someone or something that we don't like, then we remember things forever. 

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On 4/7/2020 at 10:00 AM, Jeff Matthews said:

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure what is being measured in the Y-axis of that last graph.  I think it's interesting, though, that the gray recessions are noticeably more frequent until after the 1929 Depression.  Does anyone care to guess why?

I do, which is why I said about 20 pages ago you cannot compare today's market with the market in '29, for three fundamental reasons.

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I hope everyone has made it through to this point fairly intact.

 

I (think) I said earlier that "in volatility is opportunity".  I bought some stocks on April 2nd and now, less than 2 weeks later, I'm up 41.72% on those shares.  It is difficult looking in the face of an implosion and buying something....  but it can also be the best time to do so.

 

Keep your goals & objectives in mind and use volatility as your opportunity.

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17 hours ago, Emile said:

Oil at MINUS $32??  So; when will gas stations start to pay "US" when we fill up? :D 

Likely there NOW.

($32) per barrel / 42 gallons per barrel = ($0.76) per gallon.

Figure in roughly 75 cents per gallon for refining & distribution and we are at  1 penny / gallon.  

ZERO would technically result in free gasoline, but that's not going to happen.

Easier to print "free" money & distribute to the masses & offer up some industry monetary infusions.

 

 

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