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Jeff Matthews

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

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  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

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2 minutes ago, Emile said:

Well ?????  Dow up 11.4% and I sat on the sidelines :( OK; waiting for "day 2." :D 

Did you sell TVIX on its high?

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1 hour ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Did you sell TVIX on its high?

Nah ... played it a couple of times with market up, TVIX low ... made about 20% each time, but did not have enough "balls" to hold it through the day.  Did not buy any today :D :( 

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7 hours ago, Emile said:

Well ?????  Dow up 11.4% and I sat on the sidelines :( OK; waiting for "day 2." :D 

 

You would have to have been proactive, and had the nerve  and thoughtful game-plan to have bought Monday afternoon Emile.  It gapped up !!

 

You are 100% in cash, so there is no need to act on day 2's ending moments, unless you are to gradually be shorting stocks.  That is not your game .

 

Day two, selling a portion of every stock position held, sold late in the session, if its a strong up day, is a decent strategy for all of those who got trapped.  Then more eliminated on day five, as a vaguer GUESS.

 

There has been no heavy volume capitulation at all.  Or, the fat lady hasn't sung yet.   I need to start working on a new  phono preamp.  Bye for now.

 

Jeff

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16 hours ago, Emile said:

Nah ... played it a couple of times with market up, TVIX low ... made about 20% each time, but did not have enough "balls" to hold it through the day.  Did not buy any today :D :( 

   

Emile :  LOOK at all the factors I listed  below please :

 

 

  1456876299_3-24-20TVIXchartREV3.thumb.jpg.3942c63a77bf6366cd39cc8fda4d38a8.jpg

 

                      

 

SCALE - IN 1%, 1%, 3% .  This should be OK, once we get into a second leg down, and we penetrate this first move's lows.  No more than 5% of asstes, whoops, assets. 

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Looks like the rally is here.

 

Is $2 trillion in stimulus enough to overcome those looming factors?

 

Plus, Uncle Sam has promised whatever it takes if more is needed.

 

Do you still think the DJIA is going to be this low or lower in the next 5 months?

 

 

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I did hear Trump casually mention off hand 6 trillion eventually.

JJK

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51 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

( and I suggested a scale-out plan - on day 2, which is maybe today, and on day 5 )

"scale" out?

 

Do you mean sell a portion at a time?  Some now and some more later?

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3 hours ago, JJkizak said:

I did hear Trump casually mention off hand 6 trillion eventually

Believe it is $2T via the Coronovirus bill and $4T via the Fed.

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Just now, Emile said:

Believe it is $2T via the Coronovirus bill and $4T via the Fed.

That's a ton of money!  Whether it's credit or not, it's big liquidity.  Everyone with credit cards knows you can live on them for a while.  This is why I ask whether the big capitulation will be delayed a year or more.

 

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By the way, what platform do you all use for trading?  Edward Jones requires you to call in trade orders to your rep.  

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On 3/22/2020 at 7:27 PM, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

MOST all didn't heed that original ( 1-27-2020 ) thread's postings.  I got laughed at, censored.

You were not censored,  you were giving investment advice.

 

You apparently just don't get it. 

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8 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

what platform do you all use for trading

I use Fidelity's Active Trader Pro app on my PC ... blindingly fast trades :D 

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7 minutes ago, Emile said:

I use Fidelity's Active Trader Pro app on my PC ... blindingly fast trades :D 

Looking at it now.  What are their fees?  I'm trying to find a fee schedule and don't see one.

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2 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

What are their fees?

Free, but I'm sure they require a Fidelity account

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I say again---Trump mentioned off hand 6 trillion dollars. I know that it is 2 trillion. I think he also mentioned 1.6 trillion and off hand later said 6 trillion probably by mistake forgetting the 1 in front of the 6.

JJK

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25 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

By the way, what platform do you all use for trading?  Edward Jones requires you to call in trade orders to your rep.  

 

No disrespect to your Jones guy/gal....they're trying to make a living.

 

One reason I'm glad I've made the changes I've made is I saw the writing on the wall years ago that stock/ETF commissions were heading to zero and if that is part of your business.....your income is going to dwindle.

 

As Emile says, Fidelity.  I use TD-Ameritrade (disclosure:  I used to work there before they downsized.....second disclosure, they have inked a buyout where they are being bought by Charles Schwab pending regulatory approval)

 

They have a pretty in depth platform "Think or Swim" for those who are REALLY REALLY into it.....  for those who simply want to buy 40 shares of ABC stock....  their basic platform is totally sufficient (no costs for the Think or Swim access either)

 

I am not familar with them but I'd imagine Schwab is also ok....

 

E-Trade

 

I'm hitting a deadlock now on names.  Part of someone's process might be to what degree do they need their hands held.

 

Many firms (I think Jones might be one but don't want to say it) were not well prepared when Obama signed the laws that heightened the fiduciary rules for firms.....  thus, many firms (I think Jones would be in this group) made a mad dash to "Tell" (as I understand) people that they WERE going to be moved to a managed account or.....  are going to be expected to move their accounts.  (or something similar to this logic)

 

Many firms were snake-bit with the new regulations and many firms were ok as they had a different business model.

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2 hours ago, Jeff Matthews said:

"scale" out?

 

Do you mean sell a portion at a time?  Some now and some more later?

 

Yes, that is precisely what I meant Jeff.  If today we have a  really STRONG close, last 1/2 hour, I would personally sell 1/2 of all positions at that time of the trading day, ..... today.  Don't get complacent.  Balance can be sold, best guessing, the other half,  on the 5th day.

 

This is very tricky to judge, so I have offered it , from looking at prior decline's charts, as a best guess plan of action.  

 

If a person didn't go into cash before the top, ( most people didn't ! ) the only other place to sell positions IMHO properly, is into the first leg down's resultant bear market rally.

 

The problem is, it is extremely hard to determine how far that first rally may go, in time and price. USUALLY, they are very brief, days, but in 1929 - and only in 1929,  the first bear market rally went on for months, and retraced 48 % of the INITIAL drop.   We were up 11.8 percent Tuesday. If we do 10-15% Wednesday,....IMHO, .................that is good enough.   When you go into cash, its a sure thing.

 

Considering the financial consequences of getting further trapped in possibly / probably the biggest bear market in the history of this world, I would opt to sell sooner, not later, or............. too late.    One MUST be proactive, act when it is not obvious to the public.

 

In a bear market, you sell when others are buying..." sell the rally ".  It is simply the opposite of a bull markets " buy every dip ".   But the FIRST rally is THE best one to act decisively on. Go into cash. All rallies after the first one come from lower levels, with greater losses as a result of not liquidating sooner.  This is investing 101 folks.  Hold for the long run??  In the long run, we are all dead.  

 

Being in cash is of little or no risk to speak of.   With cash, one can be in a position, buying on capitulation day,  AAPL at $150, or maybe even $62 to $66 briefly inter-day, in the next two years. MSFT at 50 to 20 dollars,.... buy three times as many shares, of AAPL and MSFT, WMT, etc etc.  

 

It took 21 years after 1929, to get even, if you held through it all.  We were " all set up " in 2020, by 50% more than 1929's over-valuations, .....to perhaps equal or exceed 1929, but NO ONE ever knows for sure if this will occur. Seems probable, to me.  Its your money, do as you like.  "The trend, is your friend."

 

HEDGE CLAUSE,   All this is historically factual, and it reflects just my long-held opinion, and is not meant to be taken any other way.  The past may, or may not, reflect the future .  The common denominator is we are looking at humans, acting to events in psychological terms. 

 

Good luck to all.

 

Jeff Medwin

 

625371653_PhotoNewYears1929Bulls.PNG.b6973090817fe2cb2d5c1865aa9346a0.PNG

 

                                      Above:  They were all " waiting for Trump to get re-elected, before selling "

                                      Below : This may be bigger than Warren has anticipated, so far, that is the case.

 

                              Buffet.JPG.3ddb185d2c003a3940e0879d04006452.JPG

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"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."

 

Sounds good, but it's trite.    Not any better than advice to "Buy low and sell high."

 

People staying in the market out of fear of missing a rally to get their money back... are they greedy?  Maybe.  I guess you can be fearful and greedy at the same time.

 

Anyway, I like your posts.  

 

Putting current holdings aside, let's talk about continuing to add to your retirement plan.  If you are conditioned to investing on a monthly basis and now is not the time to buy, where would you put your new money?  

 

Different question:  If you wanted to try to make a good gamble with a small amount where would you go now?

 

I'm interested in both of these questions.

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1 hour ago, Coytee said:

No disrespect to your Jones guy/gal....they're trying to make a living.

 

One reason I'm glad I've made the changes I've made is I saw the writing on the wall years ago that stock/ETF commissions were heading to zero and if that is part of your business.....your income is going to dwindle.

I'm seeing $0.00 commissions on stock trades, etc.  How are they making money?

 

Do you pay a percentage when you sell and take your cash out?  Some kind of annual fee? 

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1 hour ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

It took 21 years after 1929, to get even,

 

How long did it take to get even after the 50% draw down of 2008-2009?

 

 

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