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Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

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  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

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17 minutes ago, Coytee said:

I'm leaning with Mr. Medwin here....  though from a literal perspective you (the other Jeff!  and Schu are correct....  don't forget you're still dealing with human frailties.  People tend to repeat the same mistakes over & over...  You do however, make an otherwise valid point....  today has nothing in common with the world of the 1929 crash.

 

I'm still waiting for Mr. Medwin to pick any bear market of his choice....  and name a couple stocks so we can go look up their price at the worst of the bear market and see where they are today.

 

I'm, supposing he's not doing it because if we took virtually any stock that's trading today that suffered in the crash of 1929, in hindsight, someone today would probably LOVE to have been there to have bought as much as they could.

 

I've not gone through the exercise I'm challenging Mr. Medwin to do....but let's take Coke for example (KO).....  I have no clue where KO was in 1929 but I'd near sell my wife today if I could take her proceeds and buy KO at the HIGHEST POINT prior to the crash of 1929....  

 

Again, I've not done this nor looked up anything but every fiber of my body says that would be a highly winning trade (but for my wife who might take issue)

 

 

 

 

You need to compare KO at the top in 1929, to where we are a year or two from now, because we are still very near the top !!!  Just a month or so, off the top !!

 

But NONE of this you bring up here is very helpful, the real question is this,

 

if you got BAGGED, what do you do on this first rally up !!  Buy, Sell, or Hold???  When ???

 

Talking non-essential topics, in circles, ..................no one seems to address the above directly.

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Therein lies the problem. When you are a bagholder, it is on yourself.

Unless there is someone whose judgment you trust to give you advice, like a trading club, read, holding your hand at every move.

And even then, no one to blame

except yourself.

Speaking to the non savvy.

 

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47 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

You need to compare KO at the top in 1929, to where we are a year or two from now, because we are still very near the top !!!  Just a month or so, off the top !!

 

But NONE of this you bring up here is very helpful, the real question is this,

 

if you got BAGGED, what do you do on this first rally up !!  Buy, Sell, or Hold???  When ???

 

Talking non-essential topics, in circles, ..................no one seems to address the above directly.

Complacency or Disbelief.

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1 hour ago, Coytee said:

I'm leaning with Mr. Medwin here

Capitulation is yet to come?  Get out now?

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Anyone heard of the "Waffle House Index??"

 

Backstory:  Both of my sisters work for Waffle House.  Both are district manager type who each have something like 15/20 units that report to them.  My older sister is the highest ranking female in the company.

 

I was GOING to make a wise azz remark in this thread that "Waffle House is open, the world will be O.K."

 

Then I found out about an hour ago that Waffle House has closed something over 400 of their units.  I asked my sis if that was a corporate decision or, did they defer to what the local governments were dictating....  I never got a clear answer on that.

 

So, maybe the sky really is falling!!

 

 

copied & pasted from the link.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/waffle-house-index-coronavirus/

 

There exists in emergency response industry circles something called the “Waffle House Index.” It’s a measurement of how the popular breakfast chain is faring in an emergency situation. If the local Waffle House is open and serving a full menu, the index is green; open with a limited menu, it’s yellow; closed, it’s red.

 

And the Waffle House Index almost never hits red.

 

Well, now it has. More than 400 of the company’s 1,992 locations are closed because of the novel coronavirus. Public-health orders forbidding gatherings of more than 10 people in some jurisdictions have made it nearly impossible for restaurants to operate. Sales are down 70 percent nationwide, Waffle House said in a statement to The Washington Post.

 

"Hour by hour, Waffle House’s reality is changing,” the company said.

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1 hour ago, billybob said:

Therein lies the problem. When you are a bagholder, it is on yourself.

Unless there is someone whose judgment you trust to give you advice, like a trading club, read, holding your hand at every move.

And even then, no one to blame

except yourself.

Speaking to the non savvy.

 

 

 

Its no problem and there is no blame needed. 

 

The only question is, how does one proactively take control now, make the best possible decisions, based on similar situations like this.  

 

I've very clearly outlined what to do.

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Just now, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

Its no problem and there is no blame needed. 

 

The only question is, how does one proactively take control now, make the best possible decisions, based on similar situations like this.  

 

I've very clearly outlined what to do.

As long as you are happy with it.

Happy trading!

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2 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

You need to compare KO at the top in 1929, to where we are a year or two from now, because we are still very near the top !!!  Just a month or so, off the top !!

 

But we have had many bear markets before...  or, is this one extra special??

 

I STILL contend if you bought KO at the PEAK price prior to the crash in '29, even AFTER the crush you refer to hits us.....  that the purchase done in 1929 would STILL be profitable.  Heck via dividends over the years, that purchase at the peak has probably refunded itself and today it's only house money.  (though I've not done any study to know that)

 

So, how far down is KO going to go?  We already know that AAPL is going to be at something like (I forget)  I think you said $60??

 

<<shrugs shoulders>>

 

 

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Ahh...  second thought:  You made reference to MY making a reference that someone could have bought Puts to protect their portfolio.

 

Given how far down the market went, that would have easily been a VERY profitable trade.....  You said there was excess (or something) premium in them....  With the hammering the market took, that was nothing.

 

BUT....  what if someone owned, well, you say AAPL ($258 today)  is going to (something like) $60 you seem to think there is excess premium in the options...

 

Well, what if instead of buying a Put, someone sold a June 17 (of the year) 2022 in the money CALL with a strike of $115 (lowest strike I could find).  Premium on that bad boy is $141 share (bid price)  that will let them hold the stock as it declines and if it DID go to $65 or something, then the Call would expire worthless AND they would have buffered their downside by $141/share without having to sell it.

 

Disclosure:  When I looked at the numbers, I don't know that's a specific trade I would "like" if I had to sell the option at the bid....but if I could sell on the ask ($151.50) it becomes much more interesting.

 

Still, without quibbling over the exact dollars, the concept is the same.

 

One could sell a deep in the money call and that would also give them a lot of protection on the downside.  Only issue is, if the stock didn't go down far enough, they would indeed lose it at the strike price (and for those unaware, you would still keep the premium)

 

Just seems that all we're hearing is to flush the baby out with the bathwater and there are other things someone can look at doing.

 

AND.....  I still maintain, if someone is properly invested, they won't "like" this happening, but they will sleep peacefully because they know it's not decimating them and it will pass but in the meantime, they have other assets that are doing perfectly fine.

 

 

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On 3/26/2020 at 7:13 PM, Coytee said:

 

But we have had many bear markets before...  or, is this one extra special??

 

I STILL contend if you bought KO at the PEAK price prior to the crash in '29, even AFTER the crush you refer to hits us.....  that the purchase done in 1929 would STILL be profitable.  Heck via dividends over the years, that purchase at the peak has probably refunded itself and today it's only house money.  (though I've not done any study to know that)

 

So, how far down is KO going to go?  We already know that AAPL is going to be at something like (I forget)  I think you said $60??

 

<<shrugs shoulders>>

 

 

 

You don't comprehend what we have here. 

 

This is unlike ANY market we have ever had, in our entire history.  We were 50% ABOVE 1929 in valuations.

 

We are all set-up for the biggest bear market in history.  We have the most margin debt ever, and the USA and the World is BANKRUPT. 

 

Look, this chart only goes back to 1986.

 

Its pretty obvious, KO, which has been  over 60 to 36 in the last two months, can find support at $19 and $9 dollars a share.

 

$19 to 20 would be a decent starting point.   I'll see if I can find a long term Point and Figure chart.

 

        167527201_KOedited.thumb.jpg.406f8a52741669f06c4e071b581816f7.jpg

 

                                      

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20 minutes ago, Coytee said:

Anyone heard of the "Waffle House Index??"

 

Backstory:  Both of my sisters work for Waffle House.  Both are district manager type who each have something like 15/20 units that report to them.  My older sister is the highest ranking female in the company.

 

I was GOING to make a wise azz remark in this thread that "Waffle House is open, the world will be O.K."

 

Then I found out about an hour ago that Waffle House has closed something over 400 of their units.  I asked my sis if that was a corporate decision or, did they defer to what the local governments were dictating....  I never got a clear answer on that.

 

So, maybe the sky really is falling!!

 

 

copied & pasted from the link.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/waffle-house-index-coronavirus/

 

There exists in emergency response industry circles something called the “Waffle House Index.” It’s a measurement of how the popular breakfast chain is faring in an emergency situation. If the local Waffle House is open and serving a full menu, the index is green; open with a limited menu, it’s yellow; closed, it’s red.

 

And the Waffle House Index almost never hits red.

 

Well, now it has. More than 400 of the company’s 1,992 locations are closed because of the novel coronavirus. Public-health orders forbidding gatherings of more than 10 people in some jurisdictions have made it nearly impossible for restaurants to operate. Sales are down 70 percent nationwide, Waffle House said in a statement to The Washington Post.

 

"Hour by hour, Waffle House’s reality is changing,” the company said.

How does the WHI correlate to "the market", DJIA, NASDAQ, etc?

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4 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

You don't comprehend what we have here. 

 

 

You are being arrogant and personal, knock that off immediately. 

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9 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

How does the WHI correlate to "the market", DJIA, NASDAQ, etc?

 

It portends the end of the world.

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7 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

You are being arrogant and personal, knock that off immediately. 

 

If you say that on my behalf, I appreciate it but tis fine.  He's not going to influence nor intimidate me.

 

I would likely not even be active in this thread but for I think there should be SOME balance or other viewpoint to his.

 

I try to not get into specific investment ideas (as a recommendation) but am trying to offer alternate viewpoints to his (what appears to be myopic) vision.

 

>>shrugs shoulders again<<

 

The reality is, in "X" number of months or years, we'll know how right or wrong he was.

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59 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

You are being arrogant and personal, knock that off immediately. 

 I fully disagree as many of Medwin's posts have been supported with various charts, graphs, and links to information to digest & comprehend.

Although he may have a differing view of the market(s), he has supported his premise & shared with us a low risk means to make a few bucks.

Has he sufficiently supported his stance enough to satisfy those following this thread?  Maybe not.

Let it run unless someone gets a$$ hurt over the commentary.

YMMV, and if so, change the channel & stop following this string.

I'm now back to dealing with my Governor's "stay at home order" that is in effect until 4/13/20 :o

Not sure I have enough projects or patience to get through this...........!

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34 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

That 1969-1970's eighteen month decline, when I was newly-registered, stands out the most-vividly in my mind.

And it has shaped you to the core.  In 1999, you took on the ebay ID of dowto1000.  You've told us how your mentor and best friend showed you how to make money when you first started and were seeing all the bullish newbies wash out of the profession with ashen looks on their faces.  You don't like bulls.  They scare you.  You see risk in a different way than the average person.  Yet, you must admit, over the long haul, the trend is up.  You must also admit calling rallies is pretty dang hard - really almost impossible. Your call for today was bad.  If I got out yesterday, I missed a very nice rally.

 

You might get lucky and call it right again.  I agree with you that the government intervention puts a whole new twist on it.  You also mention the record levels of debt we have; well, we had similar levels in 2008.  It took a couple of years to clean up all the bad debt and write it off.  I expect the same to happen.  I don''t see why it should take 24 years to accomplish this time, but we'll see.

 

Every day is a winding road.

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10 minutes ago, Arrow#422 said:

 I fully disagree as many of Medwin's posts have been supported with various charts, graphs, and links to information to digest & comprehend.

Although he may have a differing view of the market(s), he has supported his premise & shared with us a low risk means to make a few bucks.

Has he sufficiently supported his stance enough to satisfy those following this thread?  Maybe not.

Let it run unless someone gets a$$ hurt over the commentary.

YMMV, and if so, change the channel & stop following this string.

I'm now back to dealing with my Governor's "stay at home order" that is in effect until 4/13/20 :o

Not sure I have enough projects or patience to get through this...........!

Hope you and yours are good.

You spoke about lineararity.

 

What a about cycles which some think round.

Good Fortune

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1 hour ago, Coytee said:

If you say that on my behalf, I appreciate it but tis fine.  He's not going to influence nor intimidate me

It was on your behalf,  and I appreciate that it doesn't bother you. However,. he can tend to be that way towards a lot of people on a wide variety of subjects.

 

He's ignoring me now so I may just need to deal with it in other ways.

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The BDI predicted this all in September by the way, but it's not as reliable as it once was.

 

Who was that psychic that predicted the assignation of the President in '63 and  became internationally famous and never hit anything again?

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1 minute ago, dwilawyer said:

psychic that predicted the assignation of the President in '63 and  became internationally famous and never hit anything again?

Jeane Dixon 

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