Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

[Travis In Austin]

On 8/8/2021 at 12:30 PM, Zen Traveler said:

Fyi, it was in the original post by Coytee.

FYI, you shouldn't have engaged other than to say it's political and inappropriate. Coytee gets a pass because he has never posted anything remotely political, at least that I have seen. He has plausible deniability (until now),  you don't.

[Travis In Austin]

On 8/8/2021 at 10:23 AM, Coytee said:

Tis why I said it wasn't intended to be.  When one is investing, one might want to look at prevailing trends in interest rates, economics, (yes, politics), other items.... so it was intended to be as "political" as a comment about changing interest rates might be "political".  Its just another ingredient that one should weigh.  

 

One has their thoughts (whatever they may be) and places their bets (whatever they may be) and will find out afterwards if they played their cards right.  Waiting to play your cards after the game is over won't get you any returns.  You have to make your move(s) prior to the event to the degree you can.

As mentioned up above, in quotes and edits, not intending something as political (or racial, or religious)  doesn't matter, especially on  something based on utter speculation or opinion. 

 

You could discuss it historically, of course you would have to have your facts straight if you did that. But there are 3 events between 1963  and 1974  where there was tremendous  uncertainty and /or surprise about the next election cycle. What did the stock market do in those events? 

 

Why was the safe  bet (the question raised, in part, by the poll)  that the market would finish up last year, even after the Q1 crash? Why is that "fundamental" almost always true? When has it not been the case, and why.

[Travis In Austin]

On 8/8/2021 at 12:42 PM, Zen Traveler said:

Sure. I have no problem with going further but don't wish to get Jeff's thread locked. Otoh, your comment does deserve a second opinion and I am comfortable with the status quo. 

 

His comment should have never been posted, it's not fair to those who would like to discuss politics at every opportunity. 

 

Which is why it doesn't matter whether he intended has political post to be political or not, or what you are comfortable with.

[Travis In Austin]

On 8/8/2021 at 12:32 PM, Coytee said:

Mods can delete my post if they wish.  Or, let me know and I'll delete it.  

 

It should have never been posted to begin with, I think that is what some were  trying to point out. I modified/edited it.

[Travis In Austin]

On 8/8/2021 at 3:03 PM, rplace said:

I wish I had a dime for every time I heard a sentence in an entirely white crowd start off with....

 

I'm NOT a racist, but

 

 

Or "I didn't intend for my conduct to make her feel uncomfortable, or as harassment."

[Coytee]

5 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

FYI, you shouldn't have engaged other than to say it's political and inappropriate. Coytee gets a pass because he has never posted anything remotely political, at least that I have seen. He has plausible deniability (until now),  you don't.

 

It really was an innocent minded comment.  I've gone back to delete it.  I don't really care to delve into political or otherwise any controversial conversations.  So my apologies for screwing that up.

[artto]

8 hours ago, Fast996 said:

Ok Here is the chart of the UST ZB_F 1week chart....you'll notice the bond made a 3 wave into the top....is it a "B" wave? Zero percent interest rates are a Fed manipulated anomaly. Going back 5,000 years interest rates have never been at Zero. Even in the Great Depression you had 2 pct rates. Now how much debt and leverage do you have in the WW system? a quadtrillion? At some point some of that will have to be liquidated ...maybe 50 to 75 trillion. Rates should rise as both lender and borrower will become suspect and borrowers will pay a higher rate to avoid insolvency.

So we have a possible top in the U.S. Treasury Bond as I count the pattern as nested 1,2's with latest counter rally wave 2 ending last week. If so the Bond should begin to collapse at some point. A possible thrust down through the neckline and then a retest of the NL and then a crash in wave 3 of 3 which is the strongest wave. The Black Swan in all of this is China which owns a large position in UST.

Of course if this does play out as I expect the USD would go to a new high.

We will see....

 

OK. If you say so. I think you entirely missed my point regarding the relationship between "Equities, Debt and Cash".

 

OTOH, , not to be mean, it looks to me like you are a data miner. You go looking for results that fit the exploration instead of doing the exploration and finding the results, if there are any.

 

May I ask how long you've been doing this? And what your background is?

 

Personally. I couldn't care less about Wave Theory in the financial markets. It's just another coined term for what many, many have observed through the ages. Grand Cycles, Super Cycles, Secular Cycles, Cyclical Cycles, whatever. Different names for the same things. And, these are extremely poor tools to use these as a guide to what the future brings (market timing). The variation in cycle length is much too broad to be useful other than it's historical perspective.

 

The real question is - What is your investment or trading plan? What are you going to do to manage your assets and risk before, during and after the "storm"? What's your strategy? Do you have model that you use - or several of them?

 

I also have to say some of your comments are kind of "out there" without any real proof or documentation - like your 300 year chart of the DOW, and "going back 5000 years interest rates have never been at Zero" (really now).

 

It sounds to me like you've been influenced by the doom and gloomers. 

 

Here's one for everyone. I'm not trying to show anyone how smart I am. I didn't invent or create this. However, I have been using this as a primary tool in making investment and trading decisions for maybe 15years now. I use it every day. It requires a tremendous amount of calculations. It's all math. Google "ERSA" and see what you get on only the first page results. Then go to the second page. Do a few more if you like.

 

I'd be interested in what you find.

[billybob]

Not many shortcuts out there.

DD before and during a position

most essential. 

Coffee time...☕

[Travis In Austin]

2 hours ago, Coytee said:

 

It really was an innocent minded comment.  I've gone back to delete it.  I don't really care to delve into political or otherwise any controversial conversations.  So my apologies for screwing that up.

I knew it wasn't intentional on your part. 

[Fast996]

8 minutes ago, artto said:

 

OK. If you say so. I think you entirely missed my point regarding the relationship between "Equities, Debt and Cash".

 

OTOH, , not to be mean, it looks to me like you are a data miner. You go looking for results that fit the exploration instead of doing the exploration and finding the results, if there are any.

 

May I ask how long you've been doing this? And what your background is?

 

Personally. I couldn't care less about Wave Theory in the financial markets. It's just another coined term for what many, many have observed through the ages. Grand Cycles, Super Cycles, Secular Cycles, Cyclical Cycles, whatever. Different names for the same things. And, these are extremely poor tools to use these as a guide to what the future brings (market timing). The variation in cycle length is much too broad to be useful other than it's historical perspective.

 

The real question is - What is your investment or trading plan? What are you going to do to manage your assets and risk before, during and after the "storm"? What's your strategy? Do you have model that you use - or several of them?

 

I also have to say some of your comments are kind of "out there" without any real proof or documentation - like your 300 year chart of the DOW, and "going back 5000 years interest rates have never been at Zero" (really now).

 

It sounds to me like you've been influenced by the doom and gloomers. 

 

Here's one for everyone. I'm not trying to show anyone how smart I am. I didn't invent or create this. However, I have been using this as a primary tool in making investment and trading decisions for maybe 15years now. I use it every day. It requires a tremendous amount of calculations. It's all math. Google "ERSA" and see what you get on only the first page results. Then go to the second page. Do a few more if you like.

 

I'd be interested in what you find.

I 'm the first to admit that the Trend is Up and has been since the 574 Dow low in 1974....All I'm saying is we are at a turning point in the Stock market. The Stock Market is just a gauge of Human psychology. But it is constantly being manipulated by the Central Bank. The Majority of America fails to understand that our economic system is a "credit based" system and interest rates are the measure of the demand for credit. The Central Bank since 1987 has manipulated interest rates to enable vast expansion of debt. This expansion has been multiplied in every high and low cycle causing greater "Bubbles". The Debt is beyond serviceable both public and private. Now we move to a transition of crony capitalism to Socialism...this transition will cause the credit markets to react I believe to essentially make the Fed powerless. That has not happened since Paul Volcker was Chairman and interest rates were at 22 percent.

I believe we are right now at a Historic turning point...maybe even today.

[Fast996]

This is the NDX and this is a Exhaustion pattern typical after a long advance. Are all markets at a turning point? YMMV

[JohnJ]

Looked in here a couple times lately and just bit my tongue so to speak.

These days (maybe forever) the markets and the string pullers are inextricably linked.

 

Y'all are pretty good on the tightropes here lately!

[Bubo]

With Interest Rates held near zero

and substantial money creation

It's difficult to argue that price discovery is occurring for many, most, things.

If unlimited amounts can be borrowed for effectively no carrying cost

those with access to the zero money can pay any price

and those who don't, can't.

 

It is worth noting that substantial amounts of money are flowing from large investment houses and hedge funds into farms and single family houses, I read up to 20% of houses are now large investor owned.

 

Migration from financial instruments and stocks and into tangible assets by the large investors.

Again, they can and do pay any asking price to get the asset.

[Fast996]

Bitcoin another "black swan"

[Subway]

For what it's worth:

Federal Reserve Chief Announces Feds ‘Exploring’ Creation of Government Cryptocurrency

JUST IN - $600 million stolen in Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies after hackers allegedly breached the blockchain-based, decentralized finance platform Poly Network (Forbes)

The U.S. government has seized cryptocurrencies worth $1.2 billion so far this year, according to an Internal Revenue Service director. This is a significant increase from $137 million in crypto seized the previous year.

[Fast996]

9 minutes ago, Subway said:

For what it's worth:

Federal Reserve Chief Announces Feds ‘Exploring’ Creation of Government Cryptocurrency

JUST IN - $600 million stolen in Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies after hackers allegedly breached the blockchain-based, decentralized finance platform Poly Network (Forbes)

The U.S. government has seized cryptocurrencies worth $1.2 billion so far this year, according to an Internal Revenue Service director. This is a significant increase from $137 million in crypto seized the previous year.

Of course they would. They need a transition from the conventional form of free market money to a totally traceable controlled digital currency, How do they do it? Remember never let a crisis go to waste...with these Jackals out of chaos comes less Liberty.

[Bubo]

38 minutes ago, Fast996 said:

Of course they would. They need a transition from the conventional form of free market money to a totally traceable controlled digital currency, How do they do it? Remember never let a crisis go to waste...with these Jackals out of chaos comes less Liberty.

Digital Money combined with National Health

 

"Sorry Dave,

you can't buy any coke or cookies, you are on a restricted diet.

Your BioMass index indicates you need to lose 20 lbs.

Is there something else you would like to purchase ?"

[Fast996]

Bull Markets die hard YMMV

[Subway]

 

Pharma, grocery, health care, tech stocks, real estate, precious metals, carbon futures & more speakers- good to go! 😉

Buffett's 3 Best Rules For Stock Investing (investopedia.com)

[Schu]

1 hour ago, Fast996 said:

Bull Markets die hard YMMV

bull markets don't die AT ALL when they are being constantly injected with federal liquidity on an ongoing basis. the big issue comes when you pull the needle out of the arm.