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Jeff Matthews

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

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  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

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24 minutes ago, Arrow#422 said:

 I fully disagree as many of Medwin's posts have been supported with various charts, graphs, and links to information to digest & comprehend.

Although he may have a differing view of the market(s), he has supported his premise & shared with us a low risk means to make a few bucks.

Has he sufficiently supported his stance enough to satisfy those following this thread?  Maybe not.

Let it run unless someone gets a$$ hurt over the commentary.

YMMV, and if so, change the channel & stop following this string.

I'm now back to dealing with my Governor's "stay at home order" that is in effect until 4/13/20 :o

Not sure I have enough projects or patience to get through this...........!

He can say anything he wants as long as he doesn't give investment advice and isn't condescending and personal.

 

My prediction is he will only be able to do that about 50%.if the time.

 

Disclaimer: Past results are no guarantee of future performance.

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2 minutes ago, USNRET said:

Jeane Dixon 

Toaster

 

Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner.

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Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, says“When it comes to this lending, we’re not going to run out of ammunition, that doesn’t happen,” Powell told NBC’s Savannah Guthrie. “We still have policy room in other dimensions to support the economy.”

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3 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, says“When it comes to this lending, we’re not going to run out of ammunition, that doesn’t happen,” Powell told NBC’s Savannah Guthrie. “We still have policy room in other dimensions to support the economy.”

Rather Bullish from the fed...

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The Fed is stepping in and being far more proactive than in 2008.  In 2008, we had a foreclosure crisis.  This time, they are planning ahead with a massive program for the Fed to loan mortgage holders money to cover payments that will be deferred for homeowners up to 180 days, with a 180 day extension possible.

 

Listen to the music!

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Fed’s James Bullard says after a short-term ‘unparalleled’ shock, economy will boom again.

This is the way they are mapping it out.  The only way we stay in a long bear is if the Fed truly runs out of resources.  Ask yourself, "Is this even possible?"

 

 

 

 

 

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If there is a full recovery by the end of the year, consider that it will result in a 33% return from today.

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Yes and Yes

How is this even possible...

Am vested in low risk stocks.

Some call them recession proof.

Little early for that. Fed can move a market.

 

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24 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

If there is a full recovery by the end of the year, consider that it will result in a 33% return from today.

Not to mention there was a 21% return over just the last 3 days.  It's not as exciting when you're just barely recouping your losses, but if you put in new money 4 days ago, that's an enviable return.

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1 hour ago, Jeff Matthews said:

The Fed is stepping in and being far more proactive than in 2008.  In 2008, we had a foreclosure crisis.  This time, they are planning ahead with a massive program for the Fed to loan mortgage holders money to cover payments that will be deferred for homeowners up to 180 days, with a 180 day extension possible.

 

Listen to the music!

 

I am still missing the warm and fuzzy feeling of having a deferred mortgage that I won’t be able to pay in six months because I HAVE NOT BEEN WORKING!

 

Okay, so a year form now I can pay it back...

 

With what? 

 

Here lies the crux of the COVID crises: who the hell is going to voluntarily stop working so they can forfeit their house?!

 

Mortgages must be PAID by the government while State of Emergency exists.

 

Pay my mortgage, I will weave flags in my basement while I stay safe at home!

 

Everybody gets paid, everybody stays home, everything gets backs to “normal” sooner.

 

Or we drag it on with half a$$ measures that place a bandage on a haemorrhage. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, geoff. said:

Okay, so a year form now I can pay it back...

 

No, the missed payments are tacked onto the end of your loan.  Instead of making the next 6 payments stating now, make those 6 payments years and years from now.

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Oh great, after I retire and DON’T HAVE A JOB... 

 

Would you like to bend over now, or in the golden years? 

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Maybe they can meet us half way on this...

 

Defer the mortgage, BUT give me a NEW lower interest mortgage at the same payment currently held for the same amortization period.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Coytee said:

I would likely not even be active in this thread but for I think there should be SOME balance or other viewpoint to his

Ya think?

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SOMETHING TO PONDER !!!

 

I am aware of Golden Ratio and Fibonacci Numbers.  I make my DIY audio chassis 1 to 1.62,  in dimensions.. I run my 2A3 , 6005, or KT88 output tubes at 0.62% of their maximum rated plate dissipation. 

 

I refer you all to a article I just came across, on Fibonacci as applied to the stock market. It seems to infer, that unless something drastic happens tomorrow, we have avoided a two-Friday in a row / closing price of the  S and P 500 breakdown.

 

Its very well written, so all can understand.   SEE

 

               https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/fibonacci-sequence-stock-market-180974487/V

 

 

A Bull would say,  " The Market is saved from destruction, happy times are here again."

 

A Bear would say, " The first leg down ended precisely where it should.  No capitulation yet.   Now we will have a Bear Market rally. "

 

Truth is,  neither a Bull or Bear knows for sure, where it will be six months from now !!  You can choose.  Isn't that cool?? 

 

I hope some of you enjoy reading this article as much as I did.   

 

Jeff Medwin

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10 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

A Bear would say, " The first leg down ended precisely where it should.  No capitulation yet.   Now we will have a Bear Market rally. "

Maybe we'll get 2 bears for the price of 1.

 

Have you looked at the Shanghai Composite as a possible lead indicator?

 

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So, has the fed had their impact

yet?

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Just now, billybob said:

So, has the fed had their impact

yet?

Don't know what the fed has done so far, but as regards stimulus, no, the bill is being passed today - we hope.  

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15 hours ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

 

Anyone know the current market value of Marie Osmond CD's????

 

I have a friend that is asking...

 

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Here's a synopsis of today's bill (emphasis mine):

 

Quote

The legislation will give $1,200 direct payments to individuals and make way for a flood of subsidized loans, grants and tax breaks to businesses facing extinction in an economic shutdown caused as Americans self-isolate by the tens of millions. It dwarfs prior Washington efforts to take on economic crises and natural disasters, such as the 2008 Wall Street bailout and President Barack Obama’s first-year economic recovery act.

 

But key elements are untested, such as grants to small businesses to keep workers on payroll and complex lending programs to larger businesses.

Policymakers worry that bureaucracies like the Small Business Administration may become overwhelmed, and conservatives fear that a new, generous unemployment benefit will dissuade jobless people from returning to the workforce. A new $500 billion subsidized lending program for larger businesses is unproven as well.

 

The bill finances a response with a price tag that equals half the size of the entire $4 trillion-plus annual federal budget. The $2.2 trillion estimate is the White House’s best guess of the spending it contains.

 

The legislation would provide one-time direct payments to Americans of $1,200 per adult making up to $75,000 a year and $2,400 to a married couple making up to $150,000, with $500 payments per child.

 

Unemployment insurance would be made far more generous, with $600 per week tacked onto regular state jobless payments through the end of July. States and local governments would receive $150 billion in supplemental funding to help them provide basic and emergency services during the crisis.

The legislation also establishes a $454 billion program for guaranteed, subsidized loans to larger industries in hopes of leveraging up to $4.5 trillion in lending to distressed businesses, states, and municipalities. All would be up to the Treasury Department’s discretion, though businesses controlled by Trump or immediate family members and by members of Congress would be ineligible.

 

There was also $150 billion devoted to the health care system, including $100 billion for grants to hospitals and other health care providers buckling under the strain of COVID-19 caseloads.

 

Republicans successfully pressed for an employee retention tax credit that’s estimated to provide $50 billion to companies that retain employees on payroll and cover 50% of workers’ paycheck up to $10,000. Companies would also be able to defer payment of the 6.2% Social Security payroll tax. A huge tax break for interest costs and operating losses limited by the 2017 tax overhaul was restored at a $200 billion cost in a boon for the real estate sector.

 

An additional $45 billion would fund additional relief through the Federal Emergency Management Agency for local response efforts and community services.

 

 

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