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Jeff Matthews

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

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  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

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34 minutes ago, CECAA850 said:

Slim pickins.  Overall my feeling is that it would trend up yes.  I really didn't see a bubble burst coming but take a pretty low risk/low reward approach to my 401k due to retirement approaching.

I re-allocated my kids' 529 college accounts just 6 weeks ago.

No, I'm not a fortune teller, but a sense of uneasiness had crept into my mind with the seemingly heated market, and with limited time left for them to realize further gains it made good sense to reduce their equity exposure.

 

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All of this is bent over current perception and fear of the unknown. The market will continue to fall with bleak news until the virus has peaked, while all along a certain group will continue to churn out how we're doomed and we havent thrown enough money at this thing to make it just go away.  Once we realize 70% of the world isnt going to be a graveyard, things will shoot right back up.  People will still have to have their ROKU and the youngins, will pitch their McDonalds money away to APPL this fall for the new phone offering.  They will also think bedbugs are no big deal since they survived this virus and go back to catching their rides with the UBER hippies.

 

China will be hit the hardest, with crushing production loss and more obvious facts that their few elbow rubbing allies will not be able to just brush off. Hopefully we will fill the gaps from these shortages, create more new companies, pay a little more for it and push this country to trust and rely other parts of the world less.

 

And then again, this could turn out to literally be very, very ugly with a proven source that this virus was lab produced with traits geared more along the lines of HIV components purely geared for Bio warfare included a fast spreading and mutating novel that will continue to revolve from now until the end of times. This could be the start of total country isolation with travel and trade coming to a halt and basically everything we have known since the late 19th century.

 

As far as the market goes...I hear 3M is a buy right now in the $150's    It was in the $220 range a year ago, but I think their production on a lot of their goods is going to show a big spurt after all of this

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14 minutes ago, Dave1290 said:

Magic8ball.jpg

Just turn it over and read the msg.  :)

One problem with that is holding it accountable...When you ask it why it was wrong, you may get a retort like...you asked for it.

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Accountability went out the window within the past 1-2 generations.

Just ask my kids....

ymmv

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Business, real estate, probate, contracts, litigation.

 

My take is the market has been hot for a good while.  I sensed a correction in the near future.  This might be it.  Either way, my horizon is about 20 years, so I'm still a player.  I think there's plenty of money in the market, and I don't think everyone can afford to sit it out.  At some point, they will be forced to come back to the game because they will not be able to keep up with inflation otherwise.  

 

It seems to me there is so much money, that hype is what drives our investments (up and down).  Intrinsic value (e.g., P/E ratio, etc.) doesn't seem to mean a lot.

 

Just a hunch, and regardless, it doesn't help me time anything.  I have no clue and don't even want to try.  I'll just stay in the game and play long.

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F/A still matters to me, albeit if I go long.

Playing penny stocks can be rewarding, even with no fundamentals to speak of. Always try to leave a holding just in case another HANS rears its head.

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43 minutes ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

You have to wait for a sharp-brief rally to TIME the portfolio change.   That is extremely tricky to do.   Don't do that, and you might sell out, or be sold out due to margin calls,  at the bottom in disgust. 

 

Just remember, the TREND is your friend

 

In Bull Markets, you buy the dips, sell the rallies.  NOW, in Bear Markets, you need to act  totally vice-versa. 

 

 

Sell into rallies, never buy a dip, unless ....... its TOTALLY climatic in nature.

 

Jeffrey Medwin

 

That is some really good advice and I believe it. Especially "trend is your friend". I truly do not believe I can "time" the market (for sure not in this crazy fundamentals mean very little/emotional buying market) but hope to make gains on the swings. Don't shoot for the peaks, make modest gains in the swings and move on. Or if you have many years, shoot for long term appreciation/gain.

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I was going to sign up to go short on my account until they wanted my house, cars, kids, insurance, real estate holdings, bank accounts, checking accounts, listed so that they could get their money out of my hide if something went wrong.

JJK

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Another interesting day :(  DOW down 4.4% as per John above, Nasdaq down 5.1%.  Sure glad I got out on Monday :D  Jeez ... MSFT down 7% :( AAPL down 6.5% :( 

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21 minutes ago, polizzio said:

Oh we rolling now,  down 1191 points for the day.  -4.4%

Another 3800 down to go and we will be 25% off record highs of 29,550.

Support will creep in.......eventually.

Dow P/E ratio was running close to 21x forward earnings.  https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields

A 25% hair cut would likely reduce P/E ratios to around 15x (assuming same revenue generation, costs, etc).

Nice guessing game, cough - cough cough............it's just a sinus infection &/or head cold......really.

I might run out of investable cash before this finally stabilizes :lol:.

If I were 81 I'd be concerned, but being (acting) 18 - well, lets just see where this purposely and long supported lead balloon lands.

 

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9 minutes ago, Emile said:

Another interesting day :(  DOW down 4.4% as per John above, Nasdaq down 5.1%.  Sure glad I got out on Monday :D  Jeez ... MSFT down 7% :( AAPL down 6.5% :( 

 

Now who was that saying a couple days ago you shouldn't have pulled out of stocks? That is was a really poor strategy?

 

 

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Just now, polizzio said:

Come on AAPL @ $100 a share!  I'm a buyer big time!

Was looking at AAPL way back in the mid-late 90's at about $17 per share.

Yes, that was pre cell phone and the explosion of the personal device market and consistently reliable internet.

Hindsight is 20/20........but no regrets.

 

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6 minutes ago, Arrow#422 said:

 

Hindsight is 20/20........but no regrets.

 

 

Hindsight is actually way way better than 20/20. Anybody can pick winners from the past, or historical data. The trick is picking winners before they are winners, and ride that pony to victory  lane :)

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18 minutes ago, Arrow#422 said:

Was looking at AAPL way back in the mid-late 90's at about $17 per share

Haha ... was a project manager for Apple on building their MacIntosh manufacturing plant in the early 1980's.  Received stock options which turned out to be (almost) worthless as Apple was going down the drain. But ... bought Apple a couple of years ago and doubled my money :D   Haha; as you said "no regrets." :) 

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2 minutes ago, Emile said:

Haha ... was a project manager for Apple on building their MacIntosh manufacturing plant in the early 1980's.  Received stock options which turned out to be (almost) worthless as Apple was going down the drain. But ... bought Apple a couple of years ago and doubled my money :D   Haha; as you said "no regrets." :) 

was talking with this older gentleman that dabbled in the stock market over the years. he said one of his biggest blunders was selling a bunch of apple stock when the price was something like $34. 

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9 minutes ago, BigStewMan said:

was talking with this older gentleman that dabbled in the stock market over the years. he said one of his biggest blunders was selling a bunch of apple stock when the price was something like $34

AAPL was worth "nothing" (i.e < $1) till about the year 2000.  Darn, if I would not have cashed in then it would have been worth over a million :(  Oh well :D 

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Just now, Emile said:

AAPL was worth "nothing" (i.e < $1) till about the year 2000.  Darn, if I would not have cashed in then it would have been worth over a million :(  Oh well :D 

want to use my time machine ... $500,000 per hour rental charge.

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