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Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?


Jeff Matthews

Where are the stock markets headed over the next 6 months?  

15 members have voted

  1. 1. What's your prediction as to growth/loss in the DJIA from today (27,081) through 8/24/2020? (names and votes are public)

    • It will rise 10+%
    • It will rise between 5 and 10%
    • It will rise between 3 and 5%
    • It will rise between 0 and 3%
    • It will fall between 0 and 3%
      0
    • It will fall between 3 and 5%
      0
    • It will fall between 5 and 10%
    • It will fall between 10 and 15%
    • It will fall between 15 and 25%
    • It will fall between 25 and 35%
    • It will fall 35+%

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  • Poll closed on 03/27/20 at 03:08 AM

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8 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

even in the worst 20 year period of the US market, 1929 to 1949, the annual average return was over 3%.  Not stellar of course but not negative. 

What's special about a 20-year window?  

 

From July 1929 to July 1982 (53 years), it lost 59%.  

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Just now, Jeff Matthews said:

What's special about a 20-year window?  

 

From July 1929 to July 1982 (53 years), it lost 59%.  

Negative.  There is no rolling 20 year time period where the average annual return was negative.

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1 minute ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

Not really, the REAL  decision should be to realize what the big picture is and to time it.  It is silly to hold stocks, in bear markets.

I know what you mean, but part of the big picture is one's time horizon.

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1 minute ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Does that mean statistically, we are due for one?

If you are deeply pessimistic about the economy, for whatever reason, then maybe.  How much more pessimistic could you be in 1933?  Do you think it really is that bad looking forward?  And if so why do you support a leadership bringing you right into it?

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Just now, oldtimer said:

If you are deeply pessimistic about the economy, for whatever reason, then maybe.  How much more pessimistic could you be in 1933?  Do you think it really is that bad looking forward?  And if so why do you support a leadership bringing you right into it?

Don't confuse my politics with my inability to predict stock markets.  

  • Haha 1
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1 minute ago, Jeff Matthews said:

What about July?  What if we start in July 1929?  

Rolling.  If you were already in then the chart holds.  If you just now bought at the highs, then ok what about it?  Are you brand new to it?

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There's a part of me that believes the days of laissez faire ended several decades ago.  I think Big Brother's hands are on the market levers, and He will use tax laws, budgets and other controls to fix the game in large respects.  It seems hard to compare the early days of the markets to recent decades.

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1 minute ago, Jeff Matthews said:

There's a part of me that believes the days of laissez faire ended several decades ago.  I think Big Brother's hands are on the market levers, and He will use tax laws, budgets and other controls to fix the game in large respects.  It seems hard to compare the early days of the markets to recent decades.

They were every bit and more fixed then.  Why do you think we have securities laws now that didn't exist then?

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Just now, oldtimer said:

They were every bit and more fixed then.  Why do you think we have securities laws now that didn't exist then?

I don't mean "rigged against investors."  I mean "rigged for investors."  It seems the public has become accustomed to tying markets to political performance.  Politicians have taken note.  One such mechanism was the law implementing tax-deferred IRA's and 401K's in 1978.  If you want to insure a high demand for stocks and bonds, that's surely a great way to do it.

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1 minute ago, Jeffrey D. Medwin said:

 

 

Ohh, yes,  2-28 lows are meaningful as I pointed out earlier today,  if you study technical patterns.

 

All the anticipatory " buy the dip " bull market buying people did in February - March , gets shoved down their throats, and the buyers / owners are all in hotter water - in double jeopardy. 

 

That equals "leg two" down.  Fast and sharp is the usual ride.

 

Jeff 

Absolutely!  Timing is a risky thing!  That's what we've been saying all along.  😉

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Wrong perspective.  401 Ks were a way to get corporations to shift from pensions which they had to cough up to employee accounts which was their responsibility.  Economic performance should not be tied to political performance, you have heard me say that for close to 2 decades.  High demand rigs more for Wall Street because they make money on every trade.

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In other words, pension managers had to put the money to work just as 401K holders do.  Wall Street doesn't care about that, it's a wash for them.  The big deal for them was now assets could be priced higher because they (corporations) shed expenses.

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3 hours ago, Jeff Matthews said:

DJIA Index Values

 

July 1929                $5,184.90

November 1965     $7,704.33

July 1982                $2,139.86

February 2009        $8,588.52

 

2 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Think on this, even in the worst 20 year period of the US market, 1929 to 1949, the annual average return was over 3%.  

 

Look at July 1929 - July 1982.  53 years. 

 

If we have the same performance over the next 53 years, the DJIA will be at 12,095.  
 

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