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Corona has vanished!

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18 minutes ago, Gilbert said:

 

"Potatoe"    there, fixed it.

Yo Gilbert ... haven't seen you around.  You been gone or have I just not seen any of your posts?  regardless, hope you are well and Corona Free.

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Just now, BigStewMan said:

Yo Gilbert ... haven't seen you around.  You been gone or have I just not seen any of your posts?  regardless, hope you are well and Corona Free.

Hopefully not in time out with Jim..................................

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Just now, CECAA850 said:

I don't twit.

you should.  no better place to get bogus information and witness the collective stupidity of people. 

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Just now, BigStewMan said:

you should.  no better place to get bogus information and witness the collective stupidity of people. 

I don't know, that describes a lot of places.

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Influenza had a death rate of around 2% in 1918 and 33 million died worldwide (from another source) when we had less travel (no commercial air travel back then) and the population was about 1.7B. 

 

This is from History.com

 

How many people died from the 1918 flu?  50 million.  The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet's population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.
 
 
If 'only' 35 million people catch the Corona Virus in the United States (the same estimated amount that caught the flu in 2018-19 from the CDC estimate below) and 2% die, equaling 700,000 deaths in the USA, is that enough to take this seriously or is it still 'just the flu' which I keep hearing (not necessarily here)?  In a nation of 330,000,000 your chances in this scenario is about 0.2% of dying, which is low.  Should we not take this seriously?  Its only 700,000 dead people in our country.

 

From the CDC: 
 
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1).Jan 8, 2020
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On 3/7/2020 at 6:10 PM, oldtimer said:

No doubt.

A Jack Reacher he's not. I've read the series and that movie made me love my books more than ever.

5 ft 7" compared to 6 ft 5".  Ha. Obviously not a TC fan.

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OMG!  CORONA HAS VANISHED???  Time to get rid of my lime futures shares, I guess!😔

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1 hour ago, BigStewMan said:

President Trump for saying that the death rate was 1%

The Eagles -- "They wouldn't print it if it wasn't true"

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So why are there no clorox wipes in this million plus berg? Or toilet paper, canned protein stuff (got mine last month) or bottled water (flat dumb, filtered water from some big crowded NE city. Put filters in your home, it's less bucks in the long run and less plastic!)

Only needed the wipes and hadn't been to the store except for meat in the last couple of weeks.

Beats me why "they" have made this so big a story unless something is being hidden. That other thread I poked at this about back in Jan? Haven't read or heard anything about this that explains the freak - out I saw at the stores.

 

It like flurries might happen:rolleyes:

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57 minutes ago, Dave1290 said:
 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the post.  This is worth posting here.  I have to use green font as I cannot read it with a black background.

 

 

The WHO sent 25 international experts to China and here are their main findings after 9 days

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WHO

The WHO has sent a team of international experts to China to investigate the situation, including Clifford Lane, Clinical Director at the US National Institutes of Health. Here is the press conference on Youtube and the final report of the commission as PDF after they visited Beijing, Wuhan, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Chengdu. Here are some interesting facts about Covid that I have not yet read in the media:

  • When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78-85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person. Transmission by fine aerosols in the air over long distances is not one of the main causes of spread. Most of the 2,055 infected hospital workers were either infected at home or in the early phase of the outbreak in Wuhan when hospital safeguards were not raised yet.

  • 5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill). The mass and duration of the treatments overburdened the existing health care system in Wuhan many times over. The province of Hubei, whose capital is Wuhan, had 65,596 infected persons so far. A total of 40,000 employees were sent to Hubei from other provinces to help fight the epidemic. 45 hospitals in Wuhan are caring for Covid patients, 6 of which are for patients in critical condition and 39 are caring for seriously ill patients and for infected people over the age of 65. Two makeshift hospitals with 2,600 beds were built within a short time. 80% of the infected have mild disease, ten temporary hospitals were set up in gymnasiums and exhibition halls for those.

  • China can now produce 1.6 million test kits for the novel coronavirus per week. The test delivers a result on the same day. Across the country, anyone who goes to the doctor with a fever is screened for the virus: In Guangdong province, far from Wuhan, 320,000 people have been tested, and 0.14% of those were positive for the virus.

  • The vast majority of those infected sooner or later develop symptoms. Cases of people in whom the virus has been detected and who do not have symptoms at that time are rare - and most of them fall ill in the next few days.

  • The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%). Exhaustion (38%), expectoration of mucus when coughing (33%), shortness of breath (18%), sore throat (14%), headaches (14%), muscle aches (14%), chills (11%) are also common. Less frequent are nausea and vomiting (5%), stuffy nose (5%) and diarrhoea (4%). Running nose is not a symptom of Covid.

  • An examination of 44,672 infected people in China showed a fatality rate of 3.4%. Fatality is strongly influenced by age, pre-existing conditions, gender, and especially the response of the health care system. All fatality figures reflect the state of affairs in China up to 17 February, and everything could be quite different in the future elsewhere.

  • Healthcare system: 20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks. China has hospital beds to treat 0.4% of the population at the same time - other developed countries have between 0.1% and 1.3% and most of these beds are already occupied with people who have other diseases. The fatality rate was 5.8% in Wuhan but 0.7% in other areas of China, which China explained with the lack of critical care beds in Wuhan. In order to keep the fatality rate low like outside of Wuhan, other countries have to aggressively contain the spread of the virus in order to keep the number of seriously ill Covid patients low and secondly increase the number of critical care beds until there is enough for the seriously ill. China also tested various treatment methods for the unknown disease and the most successful ones were implemented nationwide. Thanks to this response, the fatality rate in China is now lower than a month ago.

  • Pre-existing conditions: The fatality rate for those infected with pre-existing cardiovascular disease in China was 13.2%. It was 9.2% for those infected with high blood sugar levels (uncontrolled diabetes), 8.4% for high blood pressure, 8% for chronic respiratory diseases and 7.6% for cancer. Infected persons without a relevant previous illness died in 1.4% of cases.

  • Gender: Women catch the disease just as often as men. But only 2.8% of Chinese women who were infected died from the disease, while 4.7% of the infected men died. The disease appears to be not more severe in pregnant women than in others. In 9 examined births of infected women, the children were born by caesarean section and healthy without being infected themselves. The women were infected in the last trimester of pregnancy. What effect an infection in the first or second trimester has on embryos is currently unclear as these children are still unborn.

  • Age: The younger you are, the less likely you are to be infected and the less likely you are to fall seriously ill if you do get infected:

Age % of population % of infected Fatality
0-9 12.0% 0,9% 0 as of now
10-19 11.6% 1.2% 0.2%
20-29 13.5% 8.1% 0.2%
30-39 15.6% 17.0% 0.2%
40-49 15.6% 19.2% 0.4%
50-59 15.0% 22.4% 1.3%
60-69 10.4% 19.2% 3.6%
70-79 4.7% 8.8% 8.0%
80+ 1.8% 3.2% 14.8%

Read: Out of all people who live in China, 13.5% are between 20 and 29 years old. Out of those who were infected in China, 8.1% were in this age group (this does not mean that 8.1% of people between 20 and 29 become infected). This means that the likelihood of someone at this age to catch the infection is somewhat lower compared to the average. And of those who caught the infection in this age group, 0.2% died.

  • Your likelihood to die: Some people who are in an age group read the fatality rate and think this is their personal likelihood that they will if they get infected. No, because all the other risk factors also apply. Men in this that age group will more likely die than women, people with preexisting conditions more than healthy people, and people in overcrowded hospitals more than those in hospitals where they get the care they need.

  • The new virus is genetically 96% identical to a known coronavirus in bats and 86-92% identical to a coronavirus in pangolin. Therefore, the transmission of a mutated virus from animals to humans is the most likely cause of the appearance of the new virus.

  • Since the end of January, the number of new coronavirus diagnoses in China has been steadily declining (shown here as a graph) with now only 329 new diagnoses within the last day - one month ago it was around 3,000 a day. "This decline in COVID-19 cases across China is real," the report says. The authors conclude this from their own experience on site, declining hospital visits in the affected regions, the increasing number of unoccupied hospital beds, and the problems of Chinese scientists to recruit enough newly infected for the clinical studies of the numerous drug trials. Here is the relevant part of the press conference about the decline assessment.

  • One of the important reasons for containing the outbreak is that China is interviewing all infected people nationwide about their contact persons and then tests those. There are 1,800 teams in Wuhan to do this, each with at least 5 people. But the effort outside of Wuhan is also big. In Shenzhen, for example, the infected named 2,842 contact persons, all of whom were found, testing is now completed for 2,240, and 2.8% of those had contracted the virus. In Sichuan province, 25,493 contact persons were named, 25,347 (99%) were found, 23,178 have already been examined and 0.9% of them were infected. In the province of Guangdong, 9,939 contacts were named, all found, 7,765 are already examined and 4.8% of them were infected. That means: If you have direct personal contact with an infected person, the probability of infection is between 1% and 5%.

Finally, a few direct quotes from the report:

"China’s bold approach to contain the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of a rapidly escalating and deadly epidemic. In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history. China’s uncompromising and rigorous use of non-pharmaceutical measures to contain transmission of the COVID-19 virus in multiple settings provides vital lessons for the global response. This rather unique and unprecedented public health response in China reversed the escalating cases in both Hubei, where there has been widespread community transmission, and in the importation provinces, where family clusters appear to have driven the outbreak."

"Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures."

"COVID-19 is spreading with astonishing speed; COVID-19 outbreaks in any setting have very serious consequences; and there is now strong evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce and even interrupt transmission. Concerningly, global and national preparedness planning is often ambivalent about such interventions. However, to reduce COVID-19 illness and death, near-term readiness planning must embrace the large-scale implementation of high-quality, non-pharmaceutical public health measures. These measures must fully incorporate immediate case detection and isolation, rigorous close contact tracing and monitoring/quarantine, and direct population/community engagement."

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, JohnJ said:

Beats me why "they" have made this so big a story unless something is being hidden.

 

I have been watching mainstream news and foreign news.  I am not on twitter or facebook.  I have not seen freakouts or over blowing the story.  I have seen serious warnings to keep calm, take this seriously, and instructions to people to get off their butts and do some preparation. 

 

That does not seem unreasonable unless this is just a normal flu.  When was the last time you saw this for a normal flu?  Are all of these people in foreign countries playing dress up or do they know something that we do not know? 

 

They are dealing with the virus, we are not (yet).  As usual, we are exceptional and we know better, right? 

 

image.jpeg.3bada7c3a3b432d42d51dff1b1cc5a89.jpegimage.jpeg.22583a57cb562fc7f7747e0aba074134.jpegImage result for corona virus workersImage result for corona virus workers

 

 

 

 

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5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen -

 

Not sure how you 'highly' concentrate oxygen but I do know, from years of owning a fabricating shop, that it helps with hangovers.

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Yes I've just been reading online don't watch the news much anymore except 9pm on wasfox.

Since I'm on immunos and have to go to the only level 1 trauma center here monthly, I replaced my respirator. Couldn't get cartridges to fit mine from the 90s, so got a pair that at least I can still wear my glasses over and if I remember the Universal Precautions well I'll be alright.

 

& Not

 

 

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Will review of this report about how aggressive, ambitious and bold China’s response has been to the virus originated on their turf convince US Pharma and testing development manufacturers to let the Chinese manufacture the test kit needed the US? Why not - they make near all our drugs; may as well put them in total control - develop the virus, make the test kits and the anti - virus meds. A Win Win for the Red - another loss to the Red, White and Blue.

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shakes-head.gif

 

`nuff said

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32 minutes ago, HDBRbuilder said:

OMG!  CORONA HAS VANISHED???  Time to get rid of my lime futures shares, I guess!😔

Cool, I am safe.  I like Tecates and Dox equis.  I'm gonna go lick some door handles at the airport. 

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The 1918 influenza event became a pandemic largely because of WW1 and the international movement of the masses involved in the event. The strain was especially tough on the younger population.

 

I’ve read where this covid19 virus kills by initiating Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). ARDS is less of an infection and more of an overreaction by the immune system. It leads to capillary leakage that is so severe that large proteins escape into the lungs. Once this occurs osmotic balance is disturbed and fluids follow the proteins. Essentially you drown in your own fluids. ARDS has been known to become initiated by a number of things and was 1st coined during the Vietnam war among our injured soldiers.

 

Oxygen can be concentrated using fractional distillation for bulk volumes or by molecular sieves typically used by patients for home use. As for mechanical ventilation we all recall the use of iron lungs for those who needed respiratory support for polio. The iron lung was/is a negative pressure controller, basically a single mode of ventilation that actually works pretty well for simple ventilation. Today there are over 42 modes of ventilation available to clinicians......   some of which are pretty exotic. This is why neonates survive so much better these days. Still for a knowledgeable clinician the proper ventilator choice at the right time can make a huge difference in the outcome of ARDS. What is killing the older population are their other comorbidities........  they’ve got so much ‘wrong’ with them that they cannot survive this degree of additional sickness.

 

Understand also that such peril has faced healthcare providers since forever. They walk into the lions den of disease where wrong moves or accidents can become deadly. Think AIDS or legionaries.......  critical care workers truly deserve a lot more recognition for their routine jobs...... not just when it suddenly makes headlines.

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32 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

Understand also that such peril has faced healthcare providers since forever. They walk into the lions den of disease where wrong moves or accidents can become deadly. Think AIDS or legionaries.......  critical care workers truly deserve a lot more recognition for their routine jobs...... not just when it suddenly makes headlines.

 

I completely agree.  When I was in college the AIDS epidemic was in full swing and researching for a paper I learned about how common 'needle sticks' are with healthcare workers where they poke their selves with a contaminated needle when trying to put the cap back on.  Scary stuff. 

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2 hours ago, tigerwoodKhorns said:

Cool, I am safe.  I like Tecates and Dox equis.  I'm gonna go lick some door handles at the airport. 

 

I saw a video of this guy licking a religious shrine in Iran to prove that he is not afraid.  I really do not want to wish anyone harm, but the Darwin rules have to take effect at some point.  You can't fix stupid. 

 

I know that we have snake handlers here, but they don't spread the venom after they are bit, they just die. 

 

image.jpeg.0bcca94be7dc4724fdfbfe9bd8a1506b.jpeg

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today, I ate pasta and licked the spoon. oh what a brave man I am.

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