Corona Virus Disease/(SARS-CoV-2) II

[pzannucci]

28 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

people just have to be smarter than the squares, but perhaps that is too much to ask?

based on the squares and where they are marked, I would say it's a tough answer.  Apparently the positioning of the squares is the answer.

[billybob]

Also, would like to know that the antibody response goes away over time or if the antibodies continue to multiply. Takes time am sure but, would be beneficial to know.

[pzannucci]

26 minutes ago, CECAA850 said:

People put down the squares.  You're asking a lot.

Darwinian theory doesn't always apply to physical properties.

[pzannucci]

2 minutes ago, billybob said:

Also, would like to know that the antibody response goes away over time or if the antibodies continue to multiply. Takes time am sure but, would be beneficial to know.

Also depends on how stable the virus is but it sure would be helpful.  Mutants will make this hard to manage.

[Fish]

21 hours ago, pzannucci said:

Did you fall asleep with your head on the keyboard?

No, I did it on purpose...I thought tens of thousands of health care workers are out of work with their lives in turmoil would lighten the mood...for some...

[billybob]

4 minutes ago, pzannucci said:

Also depends on how stable the virus is but it sure would be helpful.  Mutants will make this hard to manage.

Do you have anything to make one think there will be mutants, and from what process?

Thanks!

[pzannucci]

4 minutes ago, billybob said:

Do you have anything to make one think there will be mutants, and from what process?

Thanks!

Most discussion is that the current strain is fairly stable... but I don't like the word "fairly"

[pzannucci]

9 minutes ago, Fish said:

No, I did it on purpose...I thought tens of thousands out of work with their lives in turmoil would lighten the mood...for some...

Figured something like that.  I was also trying to bring some levity to it also.

[dtel]

13 minutes ago, pzannucci said:

Mutants will make this hard to manage.

 

7 minutes ago, billybob said:

Do you have anything to make one think there will be mutants, and from what process?

Just look at the general public, and try to explain the reasoning that there are not walking around already, just buy reading the news there are no shortage. 

They seem to have higher numbers in some states, Florida,  at times have seem to take it as a challenge, Louisiana, Arkansas, Ohio, Texas and a bunch of other states seem to be jealous and are  trying to catch up, California sits comfortably in  the lead with no worries, as of yet. 

 

 

I know different mutant

[Wolfbane]

6 hours ago, USNRET said:

The judge closed our beaches. Glad everyone is abiding by the mandate (one week after closure). You are allowed to exercise and walk your dog.

 

 

1 hour ago, ILI said:

A German research project in a hot-spot did that and published the results on April 9. Only 15 per cent had been infected. Being a hot-spot, they had expected it to be much higher. This proofs that the herd immunity approach is not successful. Also, death rate is only 0.4 per cent, much lower than expected. 

 

15 hours ago, Sancho Panza said:

 

The Darwin Awards this year is going to overwhelmed with candidates! Some who won't be available to realize, from 6' under, that they were in contention.

 

Wb

[pzannucci]

25 minutes ago, dtel said:

 

Just look at the general public, and try to explain the reasoning that there are not walking around already, just buy reading the news there are no shortage. 

They seem to have higher numbers in some states, Florida,  at times have seem to take it as a challenge, Louisiana, Arkansas, Ohio, Texas and a bunch of other states seem to be jealous and are  trying to catch up, California sits comfortably in  the lead with no worries, as of yet. 

 

 

I know different mutant

Unfortunately I find the stats totally misleading outside of the deaths and hospitalizations.  They are all driven by the number of tests able to be administered, not actual numbers of people infected.  So states trying to chase down a number of cases is worthless.  We need the testing ability to stabilize and quantify the reality.  Mind you if you do have a low death toll then I guess you are doing good or you haven't been hit yet.  And then as with Rudy, how many could have been prevented because some therapies can not be used unless you are hospitalized.  There is something wrong with this approach.

[MicroMara]

34 minutes ago, ILI said:

A German research project in a hot-spot did that and published the results on April 9. Only 15 per cent had been infected. Being a hot-spot, they had expected it to be much higher. This proofs that the herd immunity approach is not successful. Also, death rate is only 0.4 per cent, much lower than expected. 

How dangerous the coronavirus is is usually only determined by a single number: the so-called case death rate. This figure describes the number of infected people in percent who die from the disease. On a global average, around 5.75 percent of all corona infected people currently die from the disease. In many European countries, this figure is even significantly higher: 12.63 percent in Italy, 11.03 percent in Great Britain, 9.92 percent in Spain and 9.40 percent in France. In the USA, where the pandemic is currently raging the most, 3.23 percent of all infected people still die of Covid-19. And in Germany? With 2016 deaths among 107,663 infected persons (Johns-Hopkins, as of April 8, 1 p.m.), the case death rate here is a comparatively low 1.87 percent.

 

 

This has raised questions not only in Germany but also abroad. Numerous international media, including the "New York Times", the US magazine "Time", the British "Guardian" and the "Financial Times", have addressed the issue of the German anomaly. The many analyses reveal that, apart from some statistical distortions, there are also real differences. These are the most important factors:

 

1. the age of the sick person

Currently, the average age of a corona infected person is 49 years in Germany, 62 years in Italy and 62.5 years in France. Corona in Germany "started as a skier's disease," Hans-Georg Kräusslich, head of virology at the University Hospital in Heidelberg, told the New York Times. The first patients had caught the virus in Austrian and Italian ski resorts. Thus, at first rather sporty, young people were affected, in whom the disease Covid-19 usually takes a milder course. Only in the weeks following the infection did the virus spread in Germany and then also infected older people. At the time of the first infections in Germany, epidemiologists assume that the virus had "worked its way" deep into the middle of society in Spain or Italy. And since, according to the latest studies, about 23 to 24 days elapse between corona infection and death, these countries are about three weeks ahead of Germany at least in this respect.

 

2. the number of corona tests

According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), about 920,000 corona tests were carried out in Germany by the end of March, and 350,000 tests were carried out in a single week in March. That is more than in any other European country. On the one hand, the high test rate leads to a statistical anomaly: In Italy, Spain or the USA, it is primarily seriously ill patients who are tested who have a much higher probability of dying. In Germany, on the other hand, people are also tested who do not have any symptoms at all, but who have had contact with a person who tested positive. Thus, the statistics automatically include many more people who are positive but do not die. In other words: in Italy, Spain, France and the USA, the number of undetected cases of infected persons is significantly higher. On the other hand, early testing also has decisive advantages: First, treatment can begin much earlier if necessary. This increases the patient's chance of survival. Secondly, it is possible to quarantine the infected person's contacts at an early stage before they can infect other people. This so-called "tracking" was carried out very successfully, especially in South Korea.

 

3. deaths are counted differently

Deaths are also counted differently in different countries. For example, in Germany there are normally no post-mortem tests for corona, while Italy tests almost all deaths for corona. Thus, an unknown number of deaths in Germany could be due to Covid-19, although these never appear in the statistics. This could be compensated by another statistical anomaly: In Germany, everyone who dies, has the virus and for whom another cause of death is unlikely, is counted as corona deaths. How these two anomalies will affect statistics will probably not be known until next year, when the epidemic is over and comparisons can be made with previous years.

 

4. health care system

Germany had the highest number of intensive care beds in Europe before the pandemic began. In February, 28,000 beds were available, in the meantime there are 40,000. 34 beds per 100,000 inhabitants are available in Germany. In Italy, this number is 12, in the Netherlands 7. Germany has even been able to admit Covid-19 patients from Italy, France and Spain in the past weeks, because the capacities are currently still sufficient. Pictures of overcrowded hospitals and tent cities for corona patients, as there are from Madrid, Northern Italy or New York City, are not available here at least yet. However, the authorities in Germany are also preparing for the worst: In numerous large cities such as Berlin, Düsseldorf and Hanover, makeshift clinics with thousands of beds are being built on exhibition grounds or other sites.

 

5. trust in government

The New York Times also comes to a rather surprising conclusion for the German ear: the low death rate in the Federal Republic has something to do with the Germans' trust in their government. Chancellor Angela Merkel had addressed the population clearly, calmly and regularly and explained the necessary protective measures. Since there had been little opposition and the citizens had adhered to federal and state guidelines, the epidemic in Germany had been contained quickly.

 

 

 

 

 

[pzannucci]

2 minutes ago, MicroMara said:

How dangerous the coronavirus is is usually only determined by a single number: the so-called case death rate. This figure describes the number of infected people in percent who die from the disease. On a global average, around 5.75 percent of all corona infected people currently die from the disease. In many European countries, this figure is even significantly higher: 12.63 percent in Italy, 11.03 percent in Great Britain, 9.92 percent in Spain and 9.40 percent in France. In the USA, where the pandemic is currently raging the most, 3.23 percent of all infected people still die of Covid-19. And in Germany? With 2016 deaths among 107,663 infected persons (Johns-Hopkins, as of April 8, 1 p.m.), the case death rate here is a comparatively low 1.87 percent.

 

 

 

Where did you get the death percentages?  That is percentages against tested which is totally wrong.   So Italy will loose over 1/10th of it's population along with the UK?  

When you have a large number of asymptomatic and folks that just feel a little sick and not being tested, that number is majorly skewed and worthless.

If we had 100% tested then we could come up with an actual but nobody is there.  The best countries have only tested low percentages and extrapolated from there.  Those tests are typically for everyone but more focused on people exhibiting symptoms, again skewing the numbers.

 

Based on this number, the US is doing great though with less that 2% death rate with ONLY testing people who qualify to be tested.  I'm interested in the folks that aren't tested but have have been semi-sick with the covid symptoms or showed no symptoms at all.

 

Again, they only know a small percentage because they needed to be tested.  You have to be careful with how people lie with stats.

[MeloManiac]

4 minutes ago, pzannucci said:

If we had 100% tested then we could come up with an actual but nobody is there. 

This is what was done in that German town. A representative group of inhabitants was tested. Only 15 per cent was positive. Death rate 0.39 %. 

[oldtimer]

It's not a lie if worded properly.  A percentage can be derived from "known" cases, and presented as such.  The number and comprehensiveness of tests are the factor, as you (pzan) say.

[pzannucci]

1 minute ago, ILI said:

This is what was done in that German town. A representative group of inhabitants was tested. Only 15 per cent was positive. Death rate 0.39 %. 

Now that is believable and makes perfect sense if you can do 100%.

[pzannucci]

1 minute ago, oldtimer said:

It's not a lie if worded properly.  A percentage can be derived from "known" cases, and presented as such.  The number and comprehensiveness of tests are the factor, as you (pfan) say.

With lack of qualification, it is sadly still bunk.  There has to be parameters and the parameters are stated.  Not as in the earlier statements.

[billybob]

11 minutes ago, pzannucci said:

With lack of qualification, it is sadly still bunk.  There has to be parameters and the parameters are stated.  Not as in the earlier statements.

Humbly submit doing a stat survey is nigh on impossible given the facts as we know them, and the unknown tally of variation from one country to the next.

Thanks for the trying...

Too bad there is not one source one can hang their hat on.

[CECAA850]

You can work numbers to fit your narrative.

[dtel]

57 minutes ago, pzannucci said:

1 hour ago, dtel said:

 

Just look at the general public, and try to explain the reasoning that there are not walking around already, just buy reading the news there are no shortage. 

They seem to have higher numbers in some states, Florida,  at times have seem to take it as a challenge, Louisiana, Arkansas, Ohio, Texas and a bunch of other states seem to be jealous and are  trying to catch up, California sits comfortably in  the lead with no worries, as of yet. 

 

 

I know different mutant

Unfortunately I find the stats totally misleading outside of the deaths and hospitalizations.  They are all driven by the number of tests able to be administered, not actual numbers of people infected.  So states trying to chase down a number of cases is worthless.  We need the testing ability to stabilize and quantify the reality.  Mind you if you do have a low death toll then I guess you are doing good or you haven't been hit yet.  And then as with Rudy, how many could have been prevented because some therapies can not be used unless you are hospitalized.  There is something wrong with this approach.

Well it was a joke, so there's that.  

 

They were talking about mutants, I considered it as crazies, a mutated normal person.

 

Not the same I know