Covid19 redux

[Deang]

I'll go back and fix mine in a minute.

 

EDIT: I see you already took care of it. Thanks.

[Bosco-d-gama]

Precisely how many folks have died is a really moot point. Lots of people have died and in very short order. The bigger picture involves the survivors. We know that a lot of people get covid19. Some show few symptoms, some have very rough courses and some die. What we do not know is what a covid19 infection does to the body in the long run. Amongst the survivors we could see cases of kidney failure, heart failure, pulmonary fibrosis as a consequence of the disease. We may see some debilitating diseases requiring costly remedies because of covid19. 
 

So stop fretting the details of the statistics. Covid19 is a very nasty virus. The fewer people who get it the better for everyone concerned now and in the long term.

[Deang]

1 minute ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

Among the survivors we could see cases of kidney failure, heart failure, pulmonary fibrosis as a consequence of the disease. We may see some debilitating diseases requiring costly remedies because of covid19. 

I haven't been keeping up on that front, but I thought we were already seeing some of that -- and then there is the weird thing with the kids.

 

Dying is definitely a downer, but I'm not hip on being in the hospital gasping for air either.

 

20% of those people are my age. I'm 61, overweight, with some high blood pressure.

[314carpenter]

1 hour ago, 314carpenter said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-democratic-candidate-field-ages-biden-sanders-oldest-buttigieg-youngest-2019-4

A concern for the entire nation. Just look here. I know it is an older article, but just look at what we have to choose from. Astonishing. 

Better have a close look at the VP as they are more likely to hold the reigns the longest.

Sorry, I forgot to add the link. Not political, just that someone has to actually be there to steer the ship.

[Bosco-d-gama]

Just now, Deang said:

I haven't been keeping up on that front, but I thought we were already seeing some of that -- and then there is the weird thing with the kids.

 

Dying is definitely a downer, but I'm not hip on being in the hospital gasping for air either.

 

20% of those people are my age. I'm 61, overweight, with some high blood pressure.

Those in the elder age brackets need to worry about dying from covid19. It is the middle aged and younger groups who need to worry about how covid19 could cripple their bodies. There’s this mentality that young folks need not worry about covid19, that it only harms the older infirm populations. That needs to change. Look again at polio. People died from polio and way many more were crippled by polio. Viral diseases are mean. Covid19 infections send the human immune systems into haywire mode. In ‘haywire’ mode our immune systems attack our own bodies. That is what causes ARDS. That is what causes rheumatic heart syndrome. If you have a bad skin infection once healed that skin will scar. The same thing happens internally. 

[Travis In Austin]

9 minutes ago, pzannucci said:

Are you talking about without social distancing?  I'd just like them to stop counting everything as COVID related.

I don't think they are, but happy to look at anything that's credible, i.e. by someone who knows what they are talking about.

 

The death reporting is statistically cross checked by CDC. In other words, the CDC doesnt accept what the states report as gospel. They cross check it other available information statistically to determine if there is possible underreporting or over reporting.

 

It's all there on the CDC site, but it will take 4 to 8 hours to sort through it.

 

The the reported deaths get you to a number as close as possible to the number of additional deaths if the virus never hit our shores. Isn't that the number we want?

 

It's a slippery slope when you try to say well if it only hits groups disproportionately, women, smokers, diabetics, obese, elderly, previous lung disease. You can certainly vary the way you prevent spread to those groups, but our population, is what it is. The R0 on SAR-CoV-2 is well established, and based on age and comorbidities of a given population there, US epidemiology can predict the death rate very, very closely.

[tube fanatic]

44 minutes ago, pzannucci said:

Not spliced.  It doesn't mean it wasn't manipulated via other means that are not as heavy handed.  The lab is in place to study and increase the impact of a virus.  if that isn't done by splicing, there must be other means. 

 

I watched a video presentation with a molecular biologist who said there is no way this virus could have mutated on its own in a lab to jump species as quickly as it did.  Remember, the lab was working on bioterrorism and was partly funded by us!  Fauci was involved with the financial arrangements.  To me, he is a politician first and foremost with his own agenda.   
 

The biologist worked with him back in the day, and if her allegations are really true, he is far from being the savior of our country that the media says he is.

 

Maynard

[pzannucci]

22 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

Precisely how many folks have died is a really moot point. Lots of people have died and in very short order. The bigger picture involves the survivors. We know that a lot of people get covid19. Some show few symptoms, some have very rough courses and some die. What we do not know is what a covid19 infection does to the body in the long run. Amongst the survivors we could see cases of kidney failure, heart failure, pulmonary fibrosis as a consequence of the disease. We may see some debilitating diseases requiring costly remedies because of covid19. 
 

So stop fretting the details of the statistics. Covid19 is a very nasty virus. The fewer people who get it the better for everyone concerned now and in the long term.

 You are entirely right but.... what is the course of action if:

1.  We have to wait until 1Q21 for a possible vaccine to roll out and of course, not having enough for everyone

2.  We can't come up with a vaccine

 

Data is good if you want to kind of gauge if you will at least come out of this alive.  If not good, maybe help your sanity.  We can't stay inside and away from the world forever.

[Travis In Austin]

20 minutes ago, Deang said:

I'll go back and fix mine in a minute.

 

EDIT: I see you already took care of it. Thanks.

Appologize to all for having to modify, edit or delete, but if some remain, some don't, then we get accused of bias.

 

I always miss some, it's not intentional. If someone feels like something remains that should be pulled/changed in light of something else that was changed, let us know and we will address it.

 

If the focus is on what agencies are doing, not doing, in response to the virus/disease that is typically going to be a safe harbor. Everyone is free to conclude or research what they want in terms of correlation/causation up the food chain from there. I know everyone here is capable of doing that on their own If people just have to get that out in some way there is this thing called Facebook.

 

Have I posted the research on the identifiable factors in communication most likely to get another person to change their mind?

[Jeff Matthews]

1 minute ago, dwilawyer said:

If the focus is on what agencies are doing, not doing, in response to the virus/disease that is typically going to be a safe harbor.

It will never stop with that.  People are claiming the agencies are doing (or not doing) X because of Y motivation.  The motivation always comes down to parties and cronies.

[billybob]

Don't want to overstate, feel that quite alot will not be affected to

a clinical level or degree. Some have seen the chaos to some degree and will not only gain experience in their profession, so outstanding job.

Referring to the front line workers and PTSD..

Anyone seen anymore on the nicotine patches a NY hospital that were being placed on patients after noticing smokers were doing better than nonsmokers with their symptoms...

[OO1]

2 hours ago, dwilawyer said:

Is there any credible data on what predicted cases and deaths would have been without the various measure implemented? Or is it too soon? Too difficult to tell?

I would think the question  could only be answered by Dr Fauci  , and I would hope he will have  a contingency plan for the fall , and the flu season

[Travis In Austin]

10 minutes ago, tube fanatic said:

 

I watched a video presentation with a molecular biologist who said there is no way this virus could have mutated on its own in a lab to jump species as quickly as it did.  Remember, the lab was working on bioterrorism and was partly funded by us!  Fauci was involved with the financial arrangements.  To me, he is a politician first and foremost with his own agenda.   
 

The biologist worked with him back in the day, and if her allegations are really true, he is far from being the savior of our country that the media says he is.

 

Maynard

Sorry Maynard, that's not credible or verifiable by any standard.

 

I know the video of which you speak, or at least I think I do, and she has been debunked. She is an anti-vaxxer who earns a living off of that crowd by selling books. 

 

Fauci is the Director of an agency that funds many, many, many projects. This has been discussed by many fact checking organizations. It's a conspiracy theory, it has no place in this thread. If you want to start a thread about vaccinations, or hop on the one already started a few years ago where this was all discussed, by all means But no links to 4Channel, Bit. . . or others of that ilk.

 

Travis

 

 

[billybob]

9 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

It will never stop with that.  People are claiming the agencies are doing (or not doing) X because of Y motivation.  The motivation always comes down to parties and cronies.

One thing leads to another.

[Dave A]

3 hours ago, Deang said:

 

We are never going to get the numbers we need until they implement wide spread testing and contract tracing. With everything opening back up and with testing on the rise, we're going to know in the next month or so where we really stand.

The problem with testing is will  it be honest testing. Remember in Virginia right now, or at least it was this way last week, if a person tested positive for wuhan they could test the same person again if more than 24hrs had passed and count it as a new occurance. How many times will they count one individual case as a number of them. How do you trust a state that does this to be honest ever again regarding wuhan?

[Travis In Austin]

1 hour ago, pzannucci said:

It is terrible for people that are old and with comorbidities.  To the general populous, likely not much worse than the flu though more contagious.

We won't know until we have the actual (if we ever have the actual) infection rates.

 

Remember almost 70%+ of deaths are in that group and I know in a number of the states, 40% are in the 80+ category.

Oh and remember, the numbers are not necessarily accurate as states have been tagging everything with COVID as documented.... Shake liberally....

So are the figures accurate enough to draw conclusions or not?

 

That's why CDC and other epidemiologists cross check for underreporting and over-reporting. What good is it to say well it only impacts elderly (what's "elderly"?) if the number are all inflated what does it matter?

 

Or are the "numbers" close enough, even with lumping?

 

What are the deaths by age group?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[pzannucci]

41 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

The death reporting is statistically cross checked by CDC. In other words, the CDC doesnt accept what the states report as gospel. They cross check it other available information statistically to determine if there is possible underreporting or over reporting.

 

There in lies the problem.  As Brix said, they are liberally applying some core set of metrics to make the decision on if COVID or not COVID.  There is too much motivation in ether direction along with the extra cash to have confidence in what is said on deaths.  

 

I need to go and see what they describe as "cause of death", with COVID or what.  This is the same thing they are doing with the "wow, look at the huge numbers of infected"... never tempering it with we are now doing 10 times more tests per day.

I hate not trusting but the past 5 or 6 years have forced me to discount a lot of what comes out of the govt.

[Dave A]

1 hour ago, dwilawyer said:

You have a credible source for that?

 

All of the scientific and credible data I have seen is exactly the opposite, a 90,000 death uptick over and above what flu,.and all other causes of death would be based on both reporting and cross-checking with statistical models of "expected" deaths (using accepted 95% CI) the way epidemiologists do it for every communicable disease.

 

 

I am skeptical of those numbers for this reason. The case in Colorado where the guy died of acute alcohol poisoning but was counted as wuhan. They went back and reassessed the data and the numbers of wuhan deaths dropped. CDC also had a co-morbidity chart where the numbers of deaths from wuhan were dropped a lot and a category created where people with things that were going to kill them anyway in short order died a bit sooner. This category listed wuhan as a contributing factor, which it was, and not the main factor which it was not. The chart is posted here but probably many pages back now.

 The final thing that makes me doubt all the numbers is human behavior. Since I can't get real bullet proof info I have to watch the actions of many of those who are crying wolf. They are getting caught breaking their own quarantines and not wearing face masks as soon as the camera is turned away. Haircuts for me but not for thee is another one I see. The Health dude from PA for instance would not be acting this way, I sincerely hope, if he felt he was in peril for his life from this pandemic. I hear the words but I don't see committed personal actions from many of these people that tell me they are worried. Stuff just does not add up to me and only time will tell which of us was closer to the truth.  The House for instance is shut down but they are surely just as critical as cops and firemen and Senators all of whom are not shut down. If they really took this wuhan thing seriously, and as American leaders were worried about it, why are they not doing better at fighting this with focused like a laser legislation to fight just wuhan. Instead it is everything from concert halls to Harvard while the hospitals they shut down for the onslaught of disease that quite clearly is not going to happen go bankrupt and or are laying off gobs of personnel. They just don't show me they believe this  is serious.

[Bosco-d-gama]

34 minutes ago, pzannucci said:

 You are entirely right but.... what is the course of action if:

1.  We have to wait until 1Q21 for a possible vaccine to roll out and of course, not having enough for everyone

2.  We can't come up with a vaccine

 

Data is good if you want to kind of gauge if you will at least come out of this alive.  If not good, maybe help your sanity.  We can't stay inside and away from the world forever.

I’d love to help with your sanity but alas we have what we have. Gauging by the HIV disease we know that medical science can derive workable medications for unique and new pathogens. Everything for covid19 has been put on fast track. Every vaccine approach, every treatment medication, every treatment approach and every tool....... if it shows any promise to control or mitigate covid19 it gets government funding. Every drug/tool/treatment that works will get quick FDA conditional approval. All of this is unprecedented.

 

In the mean time........... every individual can do the very best possible preparation for covid19, lifestyle changes that bolster you own health. Exercise, diet, bad health habits. Do the work and improve yourself. No waiting. No need for funding. Start today. 😁👌👍🥳

[jimjimbo]

Testing is overrated. No testing, no problem.  Be sure to vote in November, if you are still alive…