Covid19 redux

[JJkizak]

3 hours ago, pzannucci said:

Not spliced.  It doesn't mean it wasn't manipulated via other means that are not as heavy handed.  The lab is in place to study and increase the impact of a virus.  if that isn't done by splicing, there must be other means. 

So how do you splice DNA by other means?

JJK

[Travis In Austin]

2 hours ago, pzannucci said:

Are you talking about without social distancing?  I'd just like them to stop counting everything as COVID related.

This is what they say they count, and this is on Provisional Death Count which has a distinct scientific and medical meaning:

 

Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of May 18, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated periodically. Additional information will be added to this site as available.

 

 

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

 

 

¹Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1

 

[The foot note above is the most important, you have to go to the Technical Notes to see what's confirmed and what presumed, For more detailed technical information, visit the Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Technical Notes page.]

 

 

 

 

²Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8).

 

 

[Part of cross-checking, Provisional death counts are only 3/4 complete after 8 weeks typically. It will be better with SARS-CoV-2 because that is a required reportable disease.p

 

 

 

³Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving influenza.

⁴Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death.

⁵Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, pneumonia, or influenza, coded to ICD–10 codes U07.1 or J09–J18.9.

 

[those codes are important to understand, where they came from and why].

 

The other factor is what can be considered presumptive. This has shifted, and will continue to shit, as more and more becomes know about the virus and the disease. This happens with every contagious disease, provisional deaths typically don't  become fixed for 1 to 2 years after an outbreak.

 

It's all transparent. I'm just waiting for someone to say, "I disagree with this factor being sufficient to be a presumptive death" or I disagree with this part of definition being included in "confirmed" deaths.

 

I saw 3 people testify last week, under oath, 1 from CDC, 1 from NIH, 1 from HHS (I don't think the FDA person touched on it), they were all in agreement with deaths and new cases per day and in the aggregate and that deaths were likely under reported, but no way to know by how much.

 

What's being included in Provisional Death Counts (again, provisional counts   that shouldn't be? I agree that a .5 bac patient should not be included in the counts are data from States to a different agency, that go to CDC, different than how they estimate counts in real time, they have to have both sets of data).

 

Here's the bigger question, one that gets to the heart of where people's heads are in terms whether classification issues are for.making political statements, or it.helps support a.conspiracy theory they truly want to believe, or trying to understand if this outbreak is really a problem to be concerned with so they can assess the risks for themselves and their families:

 

Assuming cases are being included (by definition or presumptive criteriion) that should be excluded, how's that change the numbers? 50, 500, 5,000, 50,000?

 

 

[pzannucci]

4 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

Here's the bigger question, one that gets to the heart of where people's heads are in terms whether classification issues are for.making political statements, or it.helps support a.conspiracy theory they truly want to believe, or trying to understand if this outbreak is really a problem to be concerned with so they can assess the risks for themselves and their families:

 

Assuming cases are being included (by definition or presumptive criteriion) that should be excluded, how's that change the numbers? 50, 500, 5,000, 50,000?

 

 

That's the part I am interested in.  Bad data is just bad data.  Hopefully nobody is manufacturing.  The good data should be used to understand if we are doing right be reopening or have a death wish.

[pzannucci]

11 minutes ago, JJkizak said:

So how do you splice DNA by other means?

JJK

The manipulation is something that wouldn't necessarily occur if you let nature take it's course.  That is where I was going.

[Travis In Austin]

3 hours ago, pzannucci said:

It is terrible for people that are old and with comorbidities.  To the general populous, likely not much worse than the flu though more contagious.

We won't know until we have the actual (if we ever have the actual) infection rates.

 

Remember almost 70%+ of deaths are in that group and I know in a number of the states, 40% are in the 80+ category.

Oh and remember, the numbers are not necessarily accurate as states have been tagging everything with COVID as documented.... Shake liberally....

What's the story on Kawasaki syndrome being possibly related to Covid-19 in children. There was testimony about that when an MD Senator stated that almost zero for children and Fauci interupted and said they need to be very cautious about not implying safe or ok for kids to have Covid-19, more needs to be known about that link, and frequency. 

 

Kawasaki can cause permanent heart and vascular damage 

 

Looks too rare to be a concern, but I don't have kids or grandkids in that age bracket. What risk numbers are acceptable to send children to day care or school. 1 in a 1000, 10,000, 100,000 , a million? I don't know the answer to that.

 

I guess, overall I am looking at, what do we (meaning Scientists and doctors) know, what we don't we know yet. 

[pzannucci]

4 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

What's the story on Kawasaki syndrome being possibly related to Covid-19 in children. There was testimony about that when an MD Senator stated that almost zero for children and Fauci interupted and said they need to be very cautious about not implying safe or ok for kids to have Covid-19, more needs to be known about that link, and frequency. 

 

Kawasaki can cause permanent heart and vascular damage 

 

Looks too rare to be a concern, but I don't have kids or grandkids in that age bracket. What risk numbers are acceptable to send children to day care or school. 1 in a 1000, 10,000, 100,000 , a million? I don't know the answer to that.

 

I guess, overall I am looking at, what do we (meaning Scientists and doctors) know, what we don't we know yet. 

Yes, sadly back to probabilities.  You don't win them all.

[Deang]

Google “rabbit virus”. 

[BigStewMan]

25 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

 

Looks too rare to be a concern, but I don't have kids or grandkids in that age bracket. What risk numbers are acceptable to send children to day care or school. 1 in a 1000, 10,000, 100,000 , a million? I don't know the answer to that.

for many, this is the first time that we’ve had to answer that question.  I’ve been thinking about my grandparents going through the Spanish Flu -- they must have been scared too. 

In some ways, i envy them not having this 24/7 media -- but then, we’re the ones tuning in. 

I’ve been in positions in previous jobs, where i could have directed someone else to do a task; but my conscience won’t allow me to require someone else do something that i’m not willing to do. 

Those same thoughts would bother me -- how much risk can i demand that my children or grandchildren take particularly when a child is not as aware of risks and how to minimize via precautions? I don’t know the answer either Travis; but i’m guessing (with my ultra-sensitive conscience) that i wouldn’t be able to put much risk on their shoulders.

[oldtimer]

5 minutes ago, Deang said:

Google “rabbit virus”. 

https://rabbit.org/rhdv/

[Travis In Austin]

9 hours ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

I am posting events that are historically accurate w/o one iota of political commentary. My posts are pertinent to this subject and the content of the thread. And since they are not political or judgmental they are certainly well within the TOS for this forum. You sir are allowing you own political bent to bleed into your moderator function IMHO. 
 

In the early 2ist century America was made pandemic ready by our leadership. Is this vague enough?

Edit: I was wrong about that post, it wasn't political, and I restored it. I apologize for not taking the time to go back and re-read what you had posted to be sure I read it correctly. Instead I was relying on memory. You raised a legitimate question, and I should have looked at it closer.

 

 

[oldtimer]

2 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

Their is

There are...

[tube fanatic]

Murphy does a daily coronavirus update.  Basically, we are being told that life will never go back to pre-virus status and that getting to “the new normal” is contingent upon a vaccine which is proved to work being available.  So, while life may normalize to a significant degree elsewhere, NJ will still be saddled with all kinds of limits.  What is really sad is that I live only a short distance from PA and can walk across a number of short bridges to get there.  That will certainly cement the demise of all kinds of small businesses here while those across the river thrive once again.  It may be time to head west.....

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/nj-reveals-multi-stage-coronavirus-reopening-plan-were-in-stage-1-murphy-says/ar-BB14gnoN

 

 

Maynard

[Travis In Austin]

2 hours ago, Dave A said:

The problem with testing is will  it be honest testing. Remember in Virginia right now, or at least it was this way last week, if a person tested positive for wuhan they could test the same person again if more than 24hrs had passed and count it as a new occurance. How many times will they count one individual case as a number of them. How do you trust a state that does this to be honest ever again regarding wuhan?

Answer: 1000 times, they were each paid $1,000 to be tested (they also have to vote 50 times, but that's a story for a different time. There are really only 1,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the US, but I really, really needed $1,200. Turns out I don't even get the $1,200 and so I'm really upset with whomever set the thresholds. It's not what was agreed to when Bill called Warren to sort this all out.

 

Maybe they will get it worked this summer at Bohemian Grove.

[Deang]

The video I mentioned earlier. 
 

https://youtu.be/ab-r0capbzk

 

[Travis In Austin]

2 hours ago, Dave A said:

The Health dude from PA for instance would not be acting this wa

The quack in trouble with FDA over chelation therapy. That is his niche, offer an unproven alternative with unwritten guarantees. That's his motivation acting the way he does. 

[billybob]

58 minutes ago, Deang said:

The video I mentioned earlier. 
 

https://youtu.be/ab-r0capbzk

 

Very interesting read on.souce of virus and amateur sleuthing disentangled.

[Budman]

my wife and i got the check in the mail today

[Travis In Austin]

3 hours ago, Dave A said:

I am skeptical of those numbers for this reason. The case in Colorado where the guy died of acute alcohol poisoning but was counted as wuhan. They went back and reassessed the data and the numbers of wuhan deaths dropped. CDC also had a co-morbidity chart where the numbers of deaths from wuhan were dropped a lot and a category created where people

 

 

There is where the confusion is I think.

 

Are you referring to the "chart" as the Provisional Death numbers, which include Covid-19 deaths, total deaths, pneumonia deaths, Covid + Pneumonia deaths, etc.? 

 

First, the May 4th Colorado death didnt have anything to do with the classification update in Mid-April.

 

The current death toll number CDC reports is from multiple sources and direct reports. Covid-19 became a mandatory reportable disease to CDC by at least Mid-April.

 

The Provisional Death report is from different data, by States through death certificates.. They issued first death coding statement in mid-April.with the criteria.

 

I will have to see if the attached classification info is same as what you were talking about, but I think these two numbers get confused. They are different numbers, from different sources, about 25 to 30K difference, because Provisional numbers, which do break out specific types of associated ailments like pneumonia, lag behind by at least two weeks, and as much as 8 weeks.

Interim-20-ID-01_COVID-19.pdf

[jimjimbo]

1 hour ago, dwilawyer said:

. That is his niche, offer an unproven alternative with unwritten guarantees. That's his motivation acting the way he does. 

 

That sounds familiar.....hmmmm......

[pzannucci]

33 minutes ago, Budman said:

my wife and i got the check in the mail today

Nice.  What speakers are you buying? 🙃