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Covid19 redux


Bosco-d-gama

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45 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

Thanks to Dean who provided a link to this data I’ve gotten to see the rest of this table. You will note that the start of this table is missing. It was not posted for a reason. The beginning of this table shows the same information for the 2018-2019 flu season. Of course during the 2018/19 flu season there was no covid19 so it could not have impacted the data. And that’s the rub because the 2018/19 flu season tracks exactly the same as shown here for the 2019/20 season. In other words covid19 had no impact on the flu data or its activity and vice versa. 
 

By not showing the entire table the poster implied that influenza hospitalizations were being shown as covid19 hospitalizations. The whole table proves that wrong. What is shown here reflects the TYPICAL flu season for this arena.

Actually no this is not true.  The 2018-2019 flu season, although not as high as this year, has a much longer tail well into May.  You are right, I should have included this for comparison so you could see for yourself, but I left it off for space/clarity reasons.  My error.  Here's the complete chart for both years.

 

Screen Shot 2020-05-28 at 5.30.21 PM.png

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54 minutes ago, babadono said:

There are no empty hospital beds in Peru.

you can help  them by sending them  PEE equipment from the USA ------mostly N95 Masks and Face Shields , they may not  have any on hand -

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3 hours ago, JJkizak said:

On the nursing home thing---I'm kind of partial to Soylent Green as long as everything is disinfected.

JJK

 

Who needs 'old' people' anyways?  I'm DT's age and I feel we can go on forev*<(-. Ahhgg!!!

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40 minutes ago, pbphoto said:

Actually no this is not true.  The 2018-2019 flu season, although not as high as this year, has a much longer tail well into May.  You are right, I should have included this for comparison so you could see for yourself, but I left it off for space/clarity reasons.  My error.  Here's the complete chart for both years.

 

Screen Shot 2020-05-28 at 5.30.21 PM.png

Thanks for posting the entire chart. IMHO the charts show a typical flu season. If they’re different it is because you’re looking at 2 different strains of the flu. Also look data. It is # of ICU admissions for 2 week time frames, by age group. The highest peak number of ICU admissions for a single 2 week period is less than 200 for ALL age groups and this is for ALL of Illinois. That’s a pretty short bar for covid19 to surpass IMHO. Anyway digest the data as you choose. And yeah posting a ‘partial’ graph is the same as doctoring the data on a paper. 

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8 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

Thanks for posting the entire chart. IMHO the charts show a typical flu season. If they’re different it is because you’re looking at 2 different strains of the flu. Also look data. It is # of ICU admissions for 2 week time frames, by age group. The highest peak number of ICU admissions for a single 2 week period is less than 200 for ALL age groups and this is for ALL of Illinois. That’s a pretty short bar for covid19 to surpass IMHO. Anyway digest the data as you choose. And yeah posting a ‘partial’ graph is the same as doctoring the data on a paper. 

IMHO, this year's graph drops off a cliff and goes missing-in-action the last 2.5 months - especially for the 65+ age group.  Maybe there is a reasonable explanation as you suggest, but if you lived in Illinois, you'd feel differently 🤣 

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8 minutes ago, pbphoto said:

IMHO, this year's graph drops off a cliff and goes missing-in-action the last 2.5 months - especially for the 65+ age group.  Maybe there is a reasonable explanation as you suggest, but if you lived in Illinois, you'd feel differently 🤣 

Sorry but you still miss the bottom ‘numbers’ here. Relatively speaking there are so few flu ICU admissions for your reference time frame that it’ll make no difference whatsoever in the covid19 stats. They could take ALL of the flu cases for the 2.5 months you mention and compared to covid19 ICU admissions for the same time frame they are next to nothing. They could’ve mistaken all of the flu cases for covid19 and as an error % it would be less that 1.0. 
 

In ABC speak there will be many 1000’s of covid19 ICU admissions during your 2.5 months versus what maybe 300 flu ICU admissions (that are not shown on your graph anyway).

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, NADman said:

 

Who needs 'old' people' anyways?  I'm DT's age and I feel we can go on forev*<(-. Ahhgg!!!

 in Canada , they sure are doing a good job  , numbers are down ---everywhere , let's hope it stays that way --

 

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8 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

Sorry but you still miss the bottom ‘numbers’ here. Relatively speaking there are so few flu ICU admissions

 

 

 

was there a  flu season this spring , ?

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14 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

Sorry but you still miss the bottom ‘numbers’ here. Relatively speaking there are so few flu ICU admissions for your reference time frame that it’ll make no difference whatsoever in the covid19 stats. They could take ALL of the flu cases for the 2.5 months you mention and compared to covid19 ICU admissions for the same time frame they are next to nothing. They could’ve mistaken all of the flu cases for covid19 and as an error % it would be less that 1.0. 
 

In ABC speak there will be many 1000’s of covid19 ICU admissions during your 2.5 months versus what maybe 300 flu ICU admissions (that are not shown on your graph anyway).

 

 

 

I agree there are a lot more covid19 ICU admissions than ILI ICU admissions during this time period, but I would not say it is insignificant.  What catches my eye on the ILI admissions are 1) there is no tail, it's a cliff, and 2) the cliff began the same week we all went into lockdown.  What happened?

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1 hour ago, pbphoto said:

I agree there are a lot more covid19 ICU admissions than ILI ICU admissions during this time period, but I would not say it is insignificant.  What catches my eye on the ILI admissions are 1) there is no tail, it's a cliff, and 2) the cliff began the same week we all went into lockdown.  What happened?

Here’s the Illinois dept of health numbers for covid19 hospitalizations for the time frame in question. Their icus kept a steady census of over 1000 covid19 patients on everyday throughout your time frame and continuing till now. Exactly what the turnover is I am uncertain. Your table for the flu shows no more than 250 icu admits for the 2.5 month time frame. That’s for the flu season of 2018-19. Extrapolating for 2019-20 (that’s a guess) maybe 300. That’s 300 icu flu admits over 2.5 months versus 1000 covid patients in the icu daily for at least the same time frame. That’s pretty significant.

 

https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/hospitalization-utilization

 

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1 hour ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

Here’s the Illinois dept of health numbers for covid19 hospitalizations for the time frame in question. Their icus kept a steady census of over 1000 covid19 patients on everyday throughout your time frame and continuing till now. Exactly what the turnover is I am uncertain. Your table for the flu shows no more than 250 icu admits for the 2.5 month time frame. That’s for the flu season of 2018-19. Extrapolating for 2019-20 (that’s a guess) maybe 300. That’s 300 icu flu admits over 2.5 months versus 1000 covid patients in the icu daily for at least the same time frame. That’s pretty significant.

 

https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/hospitalization-utilization

 

I saw that data too.  I also don't know what the turnover is but we know that covid patients end up in the ICU more often and for longer stays than ILI patients, I would also expect a much higher number.

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17 minutes ago, pbphoto said:

I saw that data too.  I also don't know what the turnover is but we know that covid patients end up in the ICU more often and for longer stays than ILI patients, I would also expect a much higher number.

Here’s an article that pertains to your ICU bed indices. At this point in the covid19 pandemic, after a mere 4 months, the numbers of the critically sick and the dead are huge. Attempting to compare them to any flu season in the last half century is a waste of time. Covid19 is outpacing the flu dramatically. So whether covid19 statistics are 10% off, high or low, the result remains degrees of “huge” that far surpasses anything America has seen since the 1918-19 Spanish flu.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/28/rising-icu-bed-use-red-flag-287552?cid=apn

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