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Covid19 redux


Bosco-d-gama

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1 hour ago, pzannucci said:

NY was another world.  Someone needs to push why there are 32+k deaths vs  8K (so far) for FL and TX combined.  This keeps getting swept under the rug.

FYI there are good reasons why most who work in critical care settings are specifically trained to function in them.....  and that very, very much includes physicians. On many occasions as a Respiratory Care Practitioner I have had to countermand doctors orders. That was part of my job, to see to it that patients were properly cared for. And critical care is complex stuff.

 

What occurred in NYC was a systemic overload. The systems were so burdened that they were no longer able to deliver proper care. Yes, they will assign a covid19 diagnosis to untested people based upon clinical presentation. Covid19 does have enough characteristic symptoms where it’s infection can be presumed especially in an infection rich environment. 
 

Where NYC failed miserably was in how it managed nursing homes and in not using the available temporary hospitals. Their nursing home fiasco was unconscionable, nearly criminal if not actually criminal. They may not have used their temporary hospitals for lack of healthcare personnel, they could not staff them.

 

Can it happen again? To some degree absolutely it can. Too many critically ill, too quickly and it will unwind. Regionally there are just not enough trained personnel to provide 24/7 critical care to masses of seriously sick people. This was known from the outset and the public was begged to ‘flatten’ the curve. They failed early and now it appears that they will fail again. I know for certain that where I live, if covid19 loads our hospitals that people will die unnecessarily. It is the same everywhere.

 

This is nothing new. When our leadership touted to the world that the USA could manage Ebola my skin crawled. You can thank whomever you pray to that they stopped bringing Ebola into America. If Ebola had gotten as loose as covid19 is - we’d have been using old strip mines for burial pits.

 

Our bodies are frail. Infectious organisms chew them up from the inside out and you die, miserably. So wear the masks. It is not that tough.
 

 

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5 hours ago, RandyH 000 said:

Texas:

 

Record number of single day deaths today and record number of single day new cases.

 

Numbers are Texas DHH. Half of the deaths have occurred in last 16 days I believe it said. 

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14 hours ago, RandyH 000 said:

if 140k deaths is not enough to convince someone to wear a mask , 300k deaths maybe will

I admire your optimism. But if they haven't figured it out by now... they never will. It isn't about staying safe or keeping others safe, to some.

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You're lost little girl
You're lost little girl
You're lost
Tell me who are you?

I think that you know what to do
Impossible? Yes, but it's true
I think that you know what to do, yeah
Sure that you know what to do

You're lost little girl
You're lost little girl
You're lost
Tell me who are you?

I think that you know what to do
Impossible? Yes, but it's true
I think that you know what to do, girl
Sure that you know what to do

You're lost little girl
You're lost little girl
You're lost

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15 hours ago, Max2 said:

Well thats kind of why I was bringing it up. Who can trust any of the numbers we are seeing  with multiple counts on an individual?  Many states are doing this now and some are starting to. This process is also been noted in the U.K.  Why isnt anyone saying all the data is crap at this point no matter which way it swings? 

 

 

 

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/virginia-begin-double-counting-positive-coronavirus-cases

 

On Wednesday, Texas again set a new high with nearly 10,800 new cases, along with a record 110 deaths.

The rising toll includes 35 deaths that officials on the Texas-Mexico border said happened Wednesday morning alone in Hidalgo County. That was more than twice the number of new deaths reported in Harris County — which has five times the population — and where Texas’ largest school district decided that Houston public schools would not only postpone the first day of class but conduct the first six weeks of learning online.

 

They are double counting deaths? Double counting current number of people in hospital who are Covid-19+, double counting patients in ICU, on respirators?

 

Texas is new record deaths the last 5 days in Texas. 

 

Forget the cumulative totals, they mean nothing to you or your family. Look at the numbers, deaths, hospital beds occupied, ICU beds, respirators in use,  in your area on Monday, Tuesday and Wed. The cumulative totals are only fodder for politicians at this point. Over half the deaths are in the last two weeks in Texas. Those deaths are the result of what those people were doing 2 to 4 weeks ago. Children are usually the ones we have a difficult time getting to understand the the long range consequences of behavior today but for some reason it is difficult to get people to understand how this works. 

 

What would they say to the families of 110 people who died yesterday who are positive? "Hey don't worry about your dead mother, father, sister, brother, child, the numbers are all crap, well . . . except maybe in their case, oh well, just like the flu."

 

What do you say to the 10,000 plus new cases in Texas yesterday? Or is the point that it's probably only 5,000 new cases? Those hospital bed numbers are real numbers, just look at those. What do you say to them? "The good news is that even though you are in the hospital, the numbers are all crap, we just got you in here for the extra $36,000 we make, the bad news is if you have to go on a respirator there is a mortality rate of somewhere between 50 and 75%?"

 

Texas, like 24 other states only reports "confirmed" deaths, not "probable". There is still a lag, a death today may not get reported for several days to a week. Since Texas only reports "confirmed" deaths, those numbers are very, very, very real. If anything the Texas numbers are under-reporting deaths from Covid-19. So if you died at home you won't be counted. Why? There are not enough tests to go around to test dead people, we need them for living people.

 

Is your state in a surge? Are your day over day deaths trending up? Texas was at 30 deaths per day on July 4th, now up to 110. Texas. The Governor announced on July 6th when he clamped down again that we should expect to see numbers doubling and continuing to rise through at least the first week of August. It takes a month for a policy change on wearing masks, businesses opening, closing down, whatever, to show an effect. Abbott is now listening to a top epidemiologist out of Baylor. They focus on positivity rate, hospitalizations, beds in use, beds available, ICU beds in use/available. 

 

The question I have is why and how are people being sucked into this double "daily case" red herring? Covid+ beds are not being double counted, neither are deaths. Those daily numbers, since July 6th have not been painting a pretty picture in Texas. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

 

On Wednesday, Texas again set a new high with nearly 10,800 new cases, along with a record 110 deaths.

The rising toll includes 35 deaths that officials on the Texas-Mexico border said happened Wednesday morning alone in Hidalgo County. That was more than twice the number of new deaths reported in Harris County — which has five times the population — and where Texas’ largest school district decided that Houston public schools would not only postpone the first day of class but conduct the first six weeks of learning online.

 

They are double counting deaths? Double counting current number of people in hospital who are Covid-19+, double counting patients in ICU, on respirators?

 

Texas is new record deaths the last 5 days in Texas. 

 

Forget the cumulative totals, they mean nothing to you or your family. Look at the numbers, deaths, hospital beds occupied, ICU beds, respirators in use,  in your area on Monday, Tuesday and Wed. The cumulative totals are only fodder for politicians at this point. Over half the deaths are in the last two weeks in Texas. Those deaths are the result of what those people were doing 2 to 4 weeks ago. Children are usually the ones we have a difficult time getting to understand the the long range consequences of behavior today but for some reason it is difficult to get people to understand how this works. 

 

What would they say to the families of 110 people who died yesterday who are positive? "Hey don't worry about your dead mother, father, sister, brother, child, the numbers are all crap, well . . . except maybe in their case, oh well, just like the flu."

 

What do you say to the 10,000 plus new cases in Texas yesterday? Or is the point that it's probably only 5,000 new cases? Those hospital bed numbers are real numbers, just look at those. What do you say to them? "The good news is that even though you are in the hospital, the numbers are all crap, we just got you in here for the extra $36,000 we make, the bad news is if you have to go on a respirator there is a mortality rate of somewhere between 50 and 75%?"

 

Texas, like 24 other states only reports "confirmed" deaths, not "probable". There is still a lag, a death today may not get reported for several days to a week. Since Texas only reports "confirmed" deaths, those numbers are very, very, very real. If anything the Texas numbers are under-reporting deaths from Covid-19. So if you died at home you won't be counted. Why? There are not enough tests to go around to test dead people, we need them for living people.

 

Is your state in a surge? Are your day over day deaths trending up? Texas was at 30 deaths per day on July 4th, now up to 110. Texas. The Governor announced on July 6th when he clamped down again that we should expect to see numbers doubling and continuing to rise through at least the first week of August. It takes a month for a policy change on wearing masks, businesses opening, closing down, whatever, to show an effect. Abbott is now listening to a top epidemiologist out of Baylor. They focus on positivity rate, hospitalizations, beds in use, beds available, ICU beds in use/available. 

 

The question I have is why and how are people being sucked into this double "daily case" red herring? Covid+ beds are not being double counted, neither are deaths. Those daily numbers, since July 6th have not been painting a pretty picture in Texas. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All good points.  Its just frustrating to see data that really isnt usable other than a bed rate or a death rate. Cant really use the numbers on the general population that arent seriously affected by it and hospitalized.  The crap is all around us.  Im headed to hide under a rock on the Bama/  FL line for a week. Y'all wish me luck.

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7 minutes ago, billybob said:


Keep up the Skeer until after the election; no supplier, or vendor wants to be stuck with all those masks.

 

Say the boys can use they 😉 fancy masks for that trick-or-treat wedding this fall...

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