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Corona Virus Disease/(SARS-CoV-2) II


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19 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I am not maligning.  Analysis is manipulation by definition.  That doesn't make it bad.   Maybe we have a language problem, should I use pidgin to explain?

Nope - you said it “distorted” raw data. It does not distort raw data it varies its representation. 

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I’d like for our systems to start relying on sewage testing to track covid19 infections. This will assess covid19 in any community w/o any need for the population to face-to-face interact with health systems. It may be able to focus high infection neighborhoods allowing them to be targeted for early responses. It would be a ‘whole’ community dynamic assessment of covid19 with a lot less skewing of data. 
https://news.mit.edu/2020/testing-sewage-for-covid-19-1028

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On 11/1/2020 at 9:26 AM, RandyH000 said:

Sewage testing shows a country flush with coronavirus cases

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/health/covid-sewage-testing-spike/index.html

 

 

@Bosco-d-gama, not sure if you saw this article posted earlier by Rnady. I thought it was a joke at first, very informative. 

 

I remember reading about this with regard to opioid use, it really works.

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China tested everyone in Wuhan. They did it again in Qingdao, where they tested 9 million people in 5 days. 

 

Here is data for Europe.

 

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid-19-testing

 

Analysis and models are only as good as the data you start with. 

 

I'm in Ohio, with 10 million people -- where half of the population thinks this thing is a joke, won't wear masks - much less go for testing.

 

Since 30-40% are presumed to be asymptomatic, don't you need to test pretty much everyone to know what you are really dealing with?

 

COVID is everywhere yet nowhere. My wife works in a cluster of seven buildings on the other side of Dayton. In just her building, they have had a half dozen cases in the last two weeks. Two have been hospitalized. It's like hitting your number on the roulette wheel -- odds are low -- but you will eventually hit it.

 

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7 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

@Bosco-d-gama, not sure if you saw this article posted earlier by Rnady. I thought it was a joke at first, very informative. 

 

I remember reading about this with regard to opioid use, it really works.

What the maps show now is ‘posivity rate’. This value is dependent upon a population to participate in getting tested. By its nature we know that covid19 is covert in most cases, people will not know if they’re actively infected and will likely not get tested. Posivity rate is a rough number that’s qualitative not quantitative. It is useful but mostly for public health professionals. Sewage covid19 data is independent of population participation. Everyone within a served arena gets tested. The only variable would be how much of that sewage comes from transient groups. In other words testing sewage coming from an international airport would be interesting but not entirely reflective of the indigenous population. So yeah, I think a covid19’ dump-metric would be quicker and more inclusive and therefore a better indices for the spread of this contagion.

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26 minutes ago, dwilawyer said:

@Bosco-d-gama, not sure if you saw this article posted earlier by Rnady. I thought it was a joke at first, very informative. 

 

I remember reading about this with regard to opioid use, it really works.

National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS)

A new public health tool to understand COVID-19 spread in a community

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/wastewater-surveillance.html

 

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9 minutes ago, Deang said:

China tested everyone in Wuhan. They did it again in Qingdao, where they tested 9 million people in 5 days. 

 

Here is data for Europe.

 

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid-19-testing

 

Analysis and models are only as good as the data you start with. 

 

I'm in Ohio, with 10 million people -- where half of the population thinks this thing is a joke, won't wear masks - much less go for testing.

 

Since 30-40% are presumed to be asymptomatic, don't you need to test pretty much everyone to know what you are really dealing with?

 

COVID is everywhere yet nowhere. My wife works in a cluster of seven buildings on the other side of Dayton. In just her building, they have had a half dozen cases in the last two weeks. Two have been hospitalized. It's like hitting your number on the roulette wheel -- odds are low -- but you will eventually hit it.

 

It is amazing the number of folks who feel covid19 is entirely facetious, a conspiracy. Despite modern communications whereby anyone could cross check reported information most seem quite happy to make up their own ‘opinion’ and remain blissfully ignorant. It reminds me of those who feel that the moon landings were faked. Maybe if NASA installed a beacon light on the moon for all to see they’d at least believe that we do go to the moon.

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18 minutes ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

It is amazing the number of folks who feel covid19 is entirely facetious, a conspiracy. Despite modern communications whereby anyone could cross check reported information most seem quite happy to make up their own ‘opinion’ and remain blissfully ignorant. It reminds me of those who feel that the moon landings were faked. Maybe if NASA installed a beacon light on the moon for all to see they’d at least believe that we do go to the moon.

I think it's a bit more complex than that.  People aren't denying it exists, and they aren't denying there's a threat.  They are denying that the threat is as serious as is being portrayed. 

 

Cars are dangerous, too.  Have you seen the data on car fatalities?  Almost 40,000 deaths last year from people getting into cars.  Last year, 4.4 million people were injured seriously enough in car crashes to require medical attention.  

 

When you get into your car, you are putting other people at risk.  Do you know that?  Why on earth would you get into a car and jeopardize the public in that way?  It's pretty selfish and obtuse, if you ask me.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

I think it's a bit more complex than that.  People aren't denying it exists, and they aren't denying there's a threat.  They are denying that the threat is as serious as is being portrayed. 

 

Cars are dangerous, too.  Have you seen the data on car fatalities?  Almost 40,000 deaths last year from people getting into cars.  Last year, 4.4 million people were injured seriously enough in car crashes to require medical attention.  

 

When you get into your car, you are putting other people at risk.  Do you know that?  Why on earth would you get into a car and jeopardize the public in that way?  It's pretty selfish and obtuse, if you ask me.

 

 

A vehicle accident impacts those involved. An arsonist can burn out an entire region. Not containing a virus is like the arsonist. Plus you‘re ignoring the long term impact of covid19. Beyond covid19’s lethal immediacy are the health sequelae to follow, and they are looking pretty grim. We’ve put out ‘Manhattan Project’ style efforts for a covid19 vaccine and we can see several on the horizon. Covid19 is a virus nobody wants to get whether they die or not. Knuckle under and do what’s best for your entire community for another 9 months whilst the vaccines are delivered. How hard can that be to understand or execute?

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22 minutes ago, Jeff Matthews said:

That's ok.  Non-indigenous people are carriers, too.

Yup.......   already some airports have begun testing everyone passing through their systems. I would hope those testing active for covid19 would be prevented from travel. Imagine if China was able and willing to do this from the beginning.

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1 minute ago, Bosco-d-gama said:

A vehicle accident impacts those involved. An arsonist can burn out an entire region. Not containing a virus is like the arsonist. Plus you‘re ignoring the long term impact of covid19. Beyond covid19’s lethal immediacy are the health sequelae to follow, and they are looking pretty grim. We’ve put out ‘Manhattan Project’ style efforts for a covid19 vaccine and we can see several on the horizon. Covid19 is a virus nobody wants to get whether they die or not. Knuckle under and do what’s best for your entire community for another 9 months whilst the vaccines are delivered. How hard can that be to understand or execute?

Understanding that there are risks is the easy part.  You are merely setting up a strawman and beating it down.  Now that we know there is risk, how about we graduate to the real issue?

 

I used the car example, knowing fully well you would try to make a distinction.  In reality, there is none.  

 

The principles in play are utility versus risk.  Society has accepted the risk associated with driving vehicles because the utility of driving is believed to outweigh the risk of harm.  I'm curious as to the amount of utility you would assign to going to work and earning a living.

 

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Taking vitamin D3 here now finally after reading more about the immune system and other benefits. Got C covered by OJ and lemonade. V8 also. Weather has been nice here of late so, getting some D au naturale. Exercise, not as much as should. My favorite time of year without the humidity.

Feel better all around by having my coffee outside. Going to talk about a hydroxy- 25 profile test with Doctor. Of course, always time for music with a delicious beverage, in or out.

 

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The gentleman I spoke of earlier as having had Covid, is now visibility doing much better now 2 weeks out from treatment. Avid Hunter so, fresh air and just being outside I know is doing him well.

Mental outlook, much better now.

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1 hour ago, Jeff Matthews said:

Understanding that there are risks is the easy part.  You are merely setting up a strawman and beating it down.  Now that we know there is risk, how about we graduate to the real issue?

 

I used the car example, knowing fully well you would try to make a distinction.  In reality, there is none.  

 

The principles in play are utility versus risk.  Society has accepted the risk associated with driving vehicles because the utility of driving is believed to outweigh the risk of harm.  I'm curious as to the amount of utility you would assign to going to work and earning a living.

 

It is the magnitude of the risk and the summed contribution required of all the participants. You’re comparing apples to pumpkins by ignoring the fact that vehicles are largely kept under control while this uncaring virus only lives by infecting host organisms. One is inanimate and the other is extremely animate. Sadly, insanely we can conduct our normal lives within some very simple guidelines and it is those simple endeavors people refuse to employ. Because of that they risk everyone’s health and enhance the prospect of shutting down the entire program. In this case a little goes a long way but ‘little’ is too hard for too many to understand. So they’ll screw it up for all of us.

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