End of Hurricane Season - 2007

[Groomlakearea51]

AS ALWAYS, IT'S PRUDENT TO SEE WHAT THE NAVY HAS TO SAY:

[Groomlakearea51]

HERE'S THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE:

[Groomlakearea51]

TS Noel, (formerly known as TD-16) developed alot faster than they thought. It still poses problems if it does NOT go out east.....

Here's an extract of the key observations:

THE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COLD OVER A LARGE AREA...AND THERE IS EVEN A BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD...GIVING THE SYSTEM A COMMA SHAPE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO DEPART SHORTLY TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION AND GIVE US A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY.

ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND HEIGHTS RISE FARTHER TO THE EAST. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND HWRF...RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN CHANGE BY FORECASTING A RELATIVELY QUICK RECURVATURE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN VIA
EASTERN CUBA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...HOWEVER...FORECAST A SLOWER MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND KEEP THE CYCLONE SOUTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE HUGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST ALSO TRANSLATE INTO A VERY CHALLENGING INTENSITY PROGNOSIS. IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK WERE TO VERIFY PERFECTLY...THE CIRCULATION CENTER WOULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR ABOUT FOUR MORE DAYS BEFORE CROSSING CUBA. SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO...THE RESULTING DECREASE IN WIND SHEAR WOULD PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. IF...HOWEVER... THE CYCLONE GOES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...LAND INTERACTION WOULD OCCUR SOONER AND PERHAPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD AND COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. FINALLY...A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST COULD PLACE THE CYCLONE WITHIN A WEAKER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN FORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE DOES RECURVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES NORTH OF CUBA ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE STRONG AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...AT LEAST NOT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE LGEM AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS...AND MUCH LESS THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.5N 72.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.0N 73.4W 35 KT

BOLD = minimum Tropical Storm Winds
24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.0N 76.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 31/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W 50 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
120HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 78.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER

[Groomlakearea51]

NEW SET OF SUPERCOMPUTER TRACK MODELS:

[Groomlakearea51]

New Pictures...... Well,.. the latest IR satellite anyways....

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the latest; Fortunately, it's steering north and then northeast. I feel for the folks in the Bahamas, but fortunately, it will not be too bad.

TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

NOEL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMERGED NORTH OF THE ISLAND A FEW HOURS AGO... AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI. UNTIL THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON... THE LOCATION... FORWARD MOTION... AND EVEN THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.

OUR BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 335/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A SURFACE LOW TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE THAT WILL ACCELERATE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE ECMWF THAT DEPICTS A WEAK SURFACE LOW HANGING OUT NEAR CUBA FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE REMAINING MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AND FORECAST A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME OF THOSE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...FORECAST LITTLE MOTION ON DAYS 3-5...WHILE THE NOGAPS SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THAT TIME FRAME. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT SLOWLY RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AFTER 48 HOURS... IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH... SIMILAR TO THE HWRF SOLUTION AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REGAINS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION AFTER BEING DISRUPTED OVER HISPANIOLA... ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS SHOULD PROVIDE NOEL WITH AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER... WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE... AND BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 19.9N 73.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 21.2N 73.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 22.4N 74.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 23.4N 75.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 76.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 26.0N 76.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 28.0N 75.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 30.0N 72.5W 35 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the latest "cone of misery"

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the supercomputer track paths: Notice the shift to the northeast from yesterday's models.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the military track estimate:

[Groomlakearea51]

Sorry for the "picture delay"..... Here's the milsat visible image.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the latest from the NHC:

TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUAY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

[Groomlakearea51]

Some interesting developments:

First, the strong winds and rain coming across Florida (as we speak) are not directly related to TS-Noel. What they are is the result on the very strong high pressure frontal system headed south and colliding with TS Noel. Since both sets of prevailing winds are headed in the same direction, it's a "funnel" effect. This effect, along with the very high (dangerous) seas of 12-18' off the coast, will last for the rest of the week.

You can see this "effect" in the graphic below: Note the high center, the TS center, and Florida in the middle:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the latest NHC advisory:

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA... AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA. PLENTY OF RAIN BANDS... HOWEVER... STILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE... CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAINS FOR HISPANIOLA THAT HAVE ALSO SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS. THE NEXT AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT SCHEDULED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SINCE THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL LIKELY SPEND THE DAY OVER LAND...AS THE AIRCRAFT DO NOT TYPICALLY MAKE CENTER FIXES OVER LAND.

THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... NOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF OF CUBA AND EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE IS NOT AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS MODELS... THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS SLOWER DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS.

THE FORECAST OF AN EXTENDED STAY OVER CUBA REQUIRES A LOWER INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER LAND. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER WATER AGAIN...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL TAKE TIME TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. THE CHANCES OF NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR LESS NOW... AND MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST THIS TO OCCUR. NOTABLE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR... HOWEVER...ONCE NOEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.

Here's the latest "cone"

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the military estimated track:

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the supercomputer models:

NOTE: IF TS NOEL CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK MUCH LONGER, THEN SOUTH FLORIDA WOULD BE AFFECTED.

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the satellite image:

[Groomlakearea51]

The NHC has released it's analysis of the season. In substance, they are saying it was "average", or below average for what was predicted. We could say we were lucky in many respects.

BELOW IS THE NHC SUMMARY:

THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON PRODUCED FOURTEEN NAMED STORMS...OF WHICH SIX BECAME HURRICANES... WITH TWO OF THE HURRICANES ATTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE) STATUS. IN ADDITION...TWO OTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMED DURING THE YEAR. THE NUMBERS OF HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES WERE NEAR THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR A SEASON BUT THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. IN TERMS OF THE NOAA ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY (ACE) INDEX...WHICH MEASURES THE COLLECTIVE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES... THE SEASON HAD ABOUT 82 PERCENT OF THE 1951-2000 MEDIAN ACTIVITY... THE LOWEST OBSERVED SINCE 2002. DESPITE THE NEAR-AVERAGE OVERALL ACTIVITY... TWO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANES...DEAN AND FELIX...MADE LANDFALL DURING THIS SEASON FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1851.

BELOW IS THEIR ANALYSIS:

As the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season officially comes to a close on November 30, NOAA scientists are carefully reviewing a set of dynamic weather patterns that yielded lower-than-expected hurricane activity across the Atlantic Basin. As a result, the United States was largely spared from significant landfalling storms. However several noteworthy events took place, including two back-to-back Category 5 hurricanes hitting Central America and the rapid near-shore intensification of the single U.S. landfalling hurricane.

As a whole, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season produced a total of 14 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of which became major hurricanes. NOAA’s August update to the seasonal forecast predicted 13 to 16 named storms – of which seven to nine would be hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. An average season has 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

"The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season produced the predicted number of named storms, but the combined number, duration and intensity of the hurricanes did not meet expectations,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The United States was fortunate this year to have fewer strong hurricanes develop than predicted. Normally, the climate patterns that were in place produce an active, volatile hurricane season.”

The climate patterns predicted for the 2007 hurricane season – an ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of oceanic and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995) and La Niña – produced the expected below-normal hurricane activity over the eastern and central Pacific regions. However, La Niña’s impact over the Atlantic was weaker than expected, which resulted in stronger upper-level winds and increased wind shear over the Caribbean Sea during the peak months of the season (August-October). This limited Atlantic hurricane formation during that period. NOAA’s scientists are investigating possible climate factors that may have led to this lower-than-expected activity.

All in all, one hurricane, one tropical storm and three tropical depressions struck the United States: Tropical Depression Barry came ashore near Tampa Bay, Fla., on June 2; Tropical Depression Erin hit southeast Texas on August 16 and Tropical Depression Ten came ashore along the western Florida panhandle on Sept. 21; Tropical Storm Gabrielle hit east-central North Carolina on Sept. 9, and Hurricane Humberto hit the upper Texas coast on Sept. 13.

Also this year, the U.S. was reminded of the dangers of inland flooding. “Texas and Oklahoma experienced deadly flooding when Erin dumped up to 11 inches of rain. Fresh water flooding is yet another deadly aspect of tropical cyclones,” said Ed Rappaport, acting director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center.

NOAA will announce its 2008 hurricane outlooks for the Atlantic, East Pacific and Central Pacific in May.