HD DVD vs Blue Ray battle is getting more interesting

[JCHout]

OK, OK, I did look up some of your points and you are correct in some respects, so I'll respond.

The only player I was talking about on HD-DVD with the limited audio is the $98 A2. By the way my friend that picked one up cannot get anything but 2.0 sound out of it. Several other players are fine.

The big point that I was wrong about was the manufacturers of the stand alone. LG makes one that is dual. The non-Toshiba prices are comparable to the Blu-ray prices if not cheaper. Nevertheless, there are many more manufacturers of Blu-rays. In Wired Magazines electronics review issue they praise the latest Toshiba but add "the future of the format is shakey."

However, studio support. Exclusive to Blu-ray: Disney, Sony, Lionsgate, MGM, Columbia (owned by Sony), and Fox. Exclusive to HD-DVD: Universal, Paramount, Dreamworks (but the Steven Speilberg movies are not included). Warner releases titles in both. New Line releases in both, but recently releases Blu-ray first followed by HD-DVD later. No matter how you cut it, Blu-ray has the greater studio support. Home Theater Specialists of America is the organization endorsing Blu-ray over HD-DVD. Many directors have stated their preference for Blu-ray as well.

Sales to date is between 2:1 and 3:1 in favor of Blu-ray. With year to date being around 2:1. Spiderman 3 racked in tons of sales. Warner's movie 300 has sold twice as many Blu-ray as the HD-DVD edition.

Number of title availability is even.

At my Best Buy, Blu-ray is about $5 cheaper than HD-DVD with the exception of Fox titles which tend to be $5 more than HD-DVD. There is this thing called combo disks that HD-DVD makes that are the same as the Fox discs (that many people have problems with). Best buy also had a $399 Sony Blu-ray player at my store, so I bet you can find one around $300 before Christmas.

Now I realize alot of people really get invested in this battle. In a perfect world this would not be an issue as there would not be two formats, but there are. I just disagree that Blu-ray is inferior, it is not. Certainly, the price of stand alone Blu-ray players is the biggest problem for that format, but that will come down over time. Further, somebody that goes out and spends $6000 on Klipsch speakers can afford Blu-ray.

[mas]

This entire thread, while interesting to a small niche of the market space, is akin to listening to a comedy whereby the SACD folks debate the DVD-A folks over which format will dominate the audio market space.

Quote skewed statistics representing the past months' sales all you like (as if game players are going to determine the video market), how about quoting the total percentage of the video market occupied by the total HD recorded market space in order to put the tempest in a teapot into correct perspective. After all, not only will you quickly discover that this percentage is minuscule, but debating which of the 3** HD formats "dominates" is rather inappropriate when viewed in the complete market context!

Fanboys can debate the technical aspects of the formats all they like. But both sides have failed to present a compelling reason for the general buying public to run out and spend money on a new format, or two!, when most find existing DVD technology (especially with the availability of upscaling) quite satisfactory.

And in addition to the fundamental failure, we have the rather fascinating fracturing of a niche market by competing formats.

If you want to invest, do so. But cut it with the "mine is bigger than your's" debate. And if you are not sure, resist the "but I may pay too much" or the "which format will win" complaint. If you do buy, you do so because you want to do it, not because there is a 'correct' answer.

Face it, if you buy into an immature niche market, you will pay more than if they were a dominant commodity format. And you may (and probably will) end up orphaned. But you buy it because you simply want it. And if you are not willing to deal with that, then wait.

When the 'debate' is over, you won't have to ask any of the questions that are being repeatedly debated ad nauseum.

So, which will it be, SACD or DVD-A that will "dominate" the audio market? I'll hold my breath while you decide. In the mean time I will prepare my treatise on why my SuperBeta Hi-Fi player is superior...

** Yup, there are now 3 HD formats - look up HD-VMD - High Density Versatile Multi-layer Disc. A red laser based technology featuring 30GB of storage versus 15GB for HD-DVD and 25GB for Blu-Ray and a maximum bit rate of 40Mbps (between HD-DVD and BR's maximums and audio support for 7.1 Dolby Dig, DD+ and DTS but not DolbyTrueHD or DTS Master Audio - but then, few receivers anyone has does! Oh, and the player is slated to sell for ~$150.

[JCHout]

I agree with everything you have said. I, for one, am sorry if I have given a "mine is bigger than yours" impression, and I firmly agree with the tempest in a teapot statement. My numbers may be off, but the highest selling HD disc is around 350,000 units with DVD of the same title being 8.5 million units. I just wish the camps of the two biggest formats would have unified. Also, no studio is going to abandon the DVD. That is what keeps most of them afloat. At best, these HD discs will exist along side DVD for a long time. Just don't pop in a HD disc of Planet Earth after watching the DVD of it. You will become hooked.

[Zen Traveler]

This entire thread, while interesting to a small niche of the market space, is akin to listening to a comedy whereby the SACD folks debate the DVD-A folks over which format will dominate the audio market space....

I would call this situation closer to a drama with a sad ending. I have players that play both formats (DVD-A/SACD) and could care less which one wins. Unfortunately, there has been nothing new released recently in either format and my niche is slowly disappearing. []

[Guest srobak]

The only player I was talking about on HD-DVD with the limited audio is the $98 A2. By the way my friend that picked one up cannot get anything but 2.0 sound out of it.

So was I. I have that player, and it works just fine for multiple audio selections. Try both audio modes in the menus of the DVD, use an optical cable, and make sure your receiver is set to accept the multiple formats. Many receivers like the HK and Yammi do not have them all turned on and enabled by default per input.

No matter how you cut it, Blu-ray has the greater studio support.

5 to 3 with at least 1 (2 I believe is more accurate - researching) that support both. And that is just domestic studios. Looking abroad may put that more into perspective.

Many directors have stated their preference for Blu-ray as well.

As have several for HD... Michael Mann comes to mind immediately.

Sales to date is between 2:1 and 3:1 in favor of Blu-ray. With year to date being around 2:1.

Well, that's a large difference in ratio from 3:1. As BR got into the game first, obviously they would be "ahead" in sales... but really - get back to me after last weekends numbers are truly taken into account... and even moreso after the holidays. This holiday season WILL be the telltale. If BR deck prices don't approach 250, and the HD-DVD title feeding frenzy happens that is predicted for those 90,000+ sold units - BR is sunk.

Warner's movie 300 has sold twice as many Blu-ray as the HD-DVD edition.

Again, prior to last weekend's deck sale. I tried 3 different locations to get 300 this week and all were wiped out. Meanwhile - blu ray copies were still on the shelf.

Best buy also had a $399 Sony Blu-ray player at my store, so I bet you can find one around $300 before Christmas.

As I mentioned before - that will be about $100 too much for the greater buying market to consider, and so long as the HD decks are significantly below that - they will continue to gain on sales.

Now I realize alot of people really get invested in this battle. In a perfect world this would not be an issue as there would not be two formats, but there are.

Not for long, I think. Remember DiVX?

I just disagree that Blu-ray is inferior, it is not.

Nobody here says it is, including me. Where it's inferiority lies - if you want to call it that - is it's price point and consequently it's appeal to the mass markets.

Certainly, the price of stand alone Blu-ray players is the biggest problem for that format, but that will come down over time. Further, somebody that goes out and spends $6000 on Klipsch speakers can afford Blu-ray.

If and when price comes down to a manageable level - then I will probably get a BR deck if there are enough titles on BR that I like which will warrant it.

For the record - I didn't spend anywhere close to 6k on Klipsch speakers. I have been saving up and casing Klipsch speakers for several years, and all along said I would wait for the right time and the right price on the right models. I did, and spent $1600 on a full surround reference system that other folks spent over 3k on. Just because I own Klipsch doesn't mean I have money to burn. I find what I like, and make circumstances happen to get it if I can. I also don't re-buy new gear all the time like some people do. My last TV before my 42in Westy was a 27in JVC tube that I purchased 10 years prior. Same thing with my NAD 312 amp and JBL 4410's which comprised my TWO CHANNEL stereo. I built a JBL sub with another NAD amp to go with it bringing me into the awesome world of 2.1 until I bought all this Klipsch and HK gear over the last few months. My motorcycle is even 10 years old, weighs 100 to 150 lbs more than anything current in it's class today, and is carbed instead of injected! My point is I find something I like, take my time, and get it, and use it and enjoy it. That is where HD-DVD is for me now, and if BR drops in price to where I think it is reasonable, I might buy one.

[Guest srobak]

I just wish the camps of the two biggest formats would have unified. Also, no studio is going to abandon the DVD. That is what keeps most of them afloat. At best, these HD discs will exist along side DVD for a long time. Just don't pop in a HD disc of Planet Earth after watching the DVD of it. You will become hooked.

Everyone wishes that there would have been a unified HD format. No one from either camp will honestly tell you otherwise, except the ones who think that there would be no price drops without it. VHS kept studios afloat for a very long time - and now it is pretty much abandoned. Yes, you can still find current titles - but the numbers are VERY tiny, and within 2 to 3 years, they will be all but a memory.

I own the Planet Earth set - which I watched on HD cable first - and yes, it is gorgeous, and it certainly helped me to justify buying a 1080 display... but there needs to be a lot more to it than just some well-shot documentaries. That alone might look impressive - but it is not going to appeal to the largest markets to the point where they will go out and drop the coin on a display, any flavor HD deck, and media.

What happened to VHS and DVD is what will happen to DVD and HD/BR DVD... it will take years. Just like DVD - HD/BR is starting off slow and expensive, and will ramp up in sales as it ramps down in price. Every format over history has shown this, and as I stated earlier in the thread - DVD stayed more expensive for longer because it was a drastic change in technology from magnetic tape. To many - HD/BR is just looked upon as a "better DVD", not a whole new technology.

[Guest srobak]

I have players that play both formats (DVD-A/SACD) and could care less which one wins. Unfortunately, there has been nothing new released recently in either format and my niche is slowly disappearing. []

This is very reminiscent of MiniDisc. Once the compression revisions were advanced enough to where there was no audible and barely any measurable difference vs. CD sound quality (ATRAC 1.3), the Next Big Fad had already taken hold (MP3s), and the hundreds of MiniDisc titles that were out up and vanished overnight, with studio support dropping completely, and the revolutionary advances made in MD to get hundreds of songs on a disc vs. a dozen went almost completely un-noticed.

I personally did my part to get MD spread around by interesting all my friends... many blew me off, especially those that used portables, until I took an old CD out of the player and slid it down the sidewalk. Of course it didn't play for crap afterwards. I then did the same to a MiniDisc - three times, put it in the player, and kept right on jammin. If people would have just paid attention - the technology would have sold itself.

[JCHout]

I do not see this format going down like the audio formats did. Regardless of whether you support both formats or Blu-ray or HD-DVD only, the HD media will be with us with new releases. The difference is that it is hard for the public to switch formats. CDs have been around for a very long time, and only now do you see it moving to downloads (that are a lesser quality if the CD is done right). I think movies are a completely different beast. The music industry has changed things somewhat, but will still do OK in the future. Movie studios, however, will live or die on home video. With the cost of movie production with advertising, they never would be alive without a thriving home video market. This is why you will not see DVD recome replaced for a long time. On the other hand, they know the HD market is ripe for a new format that can exist alongside DVD. With the U.S. TV broadcasts moving from analog, many people will be getting high definition TVs. Many will see how good these video formats are, and they are both very good. In my opinion it is not the quantum jump from VHS to DVD, but if you have the right equipment it is. Now I certainly did not spend $6000 on speakers either, but the high-end videophile that does will likely have both formats. I have Blu-ray now due to the fact that I have children and the specific studios meet my needs now. If this war continues, you better believe I will move into HD-DVD as well. There are only about five to ten titles on that format that I would buy, not enough for me to invest in that, yet. If things move at the status quo, in my opinion both formats will continue to exist alongside one another. If Warner Brothers switches sides, that would change the dynamic drastically (and both sides have manipulated data and misquoted executives to guess what they would do). I think things will go on as they are at least through Christmas 2008. Then we will see, but I do not think that these formats will die off like some of the audio formats in the past, but we will see.

Regardless of our opinions on this stupid format war, I can at least know that anybody that disagrees with my positions here on this are very intelligent, wise people. We all have damn good speakers.

[Zen Traveler]

I think that DVD's are going to be around for a while longer and both HD formats are going to keep competing against each other. Imo, most people will get their HD fix ala cart, either by Satellite, Cable, Terrestrial, or the Internet.

[JTYoung]

OK, OK, I did look up some of your points and you are correct in some respects, so I'll respond.

The only player I was talking about on HD-DVD with the limited audio is the $98 A2. By the way my friend that picked one up cannot get anything but 2.0 sound out of it. Several other players are fine.

The big point that I was wrong about was the manufacturers of the stand alone. LG makes one that is dual. The non-Toshiba prices are comparable to the Blu-ray prices if not cheaper. Nevertheless, there are many more manufacturers of Blu-rays. In Wired Magazines electronics review issue they praise the latest Toshiba but add "the future of the format is shakey."

However, studio support. Exclusive to Blu-ray: Disney, Sony, Lionsgate, MGM, Columbia (owned by Sony), and Fox. Exclusive to HD-DVD: Universal, Paramount, Dreamworks (but the Steven Speilberg movies are not included). Warner releases titles in both. New Line releases in both, but recently releases Blu-ray first followed by HD-DVD later. No matter how you cut it, Blu-ray has the greater studio support. Home Theater Specialists of America is the organization endorsing Blu-ray over HD-DVD. Many directors have stated their preference for Blu-ray as well.

Sales to date is between 2:1 and 3:1 in favor of Blu-ray. With year to date being around 2:1. Spiderman 3 racked in tons of sales. Warner's movie 300 has sold twice as many Blu-ray as the HD-DVD edition.

Number of title availability is even.

At my Best Buy, Blu-ray is about $5 cheaper than HD-DVD with the exception of Fox titles which tend to be $5 more than HD-DVD. There is this thing called combo disks that HD-DVD makes that are the same as the Fox discs (that many people have problems with). Best buy also had a $399 Sony Blu-ray player at my store, so I bet you can find one around $300 before Christmas.

Now I realize alot of people really get invested in this battle. In a perfect world this would not be an issue as there would not be two formats, but there are. I just disagree that Blu-ray is inferior, it is not. Certainly, the price of stand alone Blu-ray players is the biggest problem for that format, but that will come down over time. Further, somebody that goes out and spends $6000 on Klipsch speakers can afford Blu-ray.

I have an A2 and the audio is not limited, I can get MPCM fine over HDMI. Perhaps your friends receiver has an issue with audio over HDMI or he is trying to send a PCM signal over optical which cannot be done.

The HD DVD players, for the most part, are significanlty cheaper than their Blu-ray counterparts. Samsung also makes a dual player. Neither HD DVD or Blu-ray will be going anywhere for a while. Both formats are fairly established for the time being, that is why I own both formats.

One thing to keep in mind about studio support and the directors is that much of Speilberg's movies are owned by the studios and not him. So the suppot of the director will have no impact on one of the products they directed coming out on a format. People like Lucas and Speilberg may be able to keep their movies from being released but very few other directors have that much clout.

Sales to date is around 3:2 in favor of Blu-ray not 2:1 or 3:1. Spiderman 3 only sold 131k copies and that was when you combine the individual release total with the trilogy box set. (Using Neilsen's numbers there is no way that they would have sold 131k of the S3 individually because it would put too many other spikes in numbers of other disc sales to make sense, sales of many other discs would have had to double when compared to the previous weeks totals and there is just no data to justify a jump in sales like that). In any case 131k is hardly a huge number when compared to the SD DVD sales each week.

Prices for HD media have come down some in recent weeks and HD DVD and Blu-ray are pretty much the same in price, except for Fox who IMO thinks way too highly of their products, and the combo discs which I've read will now be priced the same as any other HD DVD.

Neither format is truly inferior, the biggest problem I have with Blu-ray is the majority of the players out there do not meet the 1.1 spec and there are very few 1.1 players being released. Blu-ray is still adding features that HD DVD had when their first players were released. BD+ is a pain to deal with, everyone complains about the long boot time for the Toshiba players, BD+ on the discs pretty much puts the time from start up to playing a movie the same on my Panasonic as my A2.

[JCHout]

You are correct about studios owning the movies instead of the directors, but there is a select few that can stop the release. Speilberg and Lucas being the big two. So it will be interesting next Christmas when we see what happens with Indiana Jones 4. Also, it was my understanding that the Spiderman 3 figures did not count the box set or the free ones inside the 40G PS3, but I could be wrong. Finally, the 1.1 BR players add enhanced picture in picture capability. BR can do PiP now, just not near as good as HD-DVD. Being as I could care less about that (and most special features for the most part), 1.1 is not a big deal to me. Since my first post on the matter, my friend did have to buy a new receiver, but he never fugured out why he couldn't get standard 5.1. I will likely own both formats as well (there just aren't enough out there to justify HD-DVD for my individual tastes).

The good thing about the format war: it has driven prices down substantially on both sides. BR players will continue to drop, and movie prices are not bad considering how new both formats are. I remember paying over $30 for DVDs three years into that game, we are well below that with HD media (and that doesn't even factor in inflation).

Thank goodness I don't have to worry about my speakers being out of date.

[MatrixDweller]

The only player I was talking about on HD-DVD with the limited audio is the $98 A2. By the way my friend that picked one up cannot get anything but 2.0 sound out of it. Several other players are fine.

I've had my A2 for about 6 months now and haven't had any problems with it. I have a Denon 3805 and pass the DTS bitstream to it via the optical output. For the lossless audio you need to use the HDMI output to a receiver that accepts LPCM over HDMI. The down sampled DTS still sounds great IMHO.

[JTYoung]

You are correct about studios owning the movies instead of the directors, but there is a select few that can stop the release. Speilberg and Lucas being the big two. So it will be interesting next Christmas when we see what happens with Indiana Jones 4. Also, it was my understanding that the Spiderman 3 figures did not count the box set or the free ones inside the 40G PS3, but I could be wrong. Finally, the 1.1 BR players add enhanced picture in picture capability. BR can do PiP now, just not near as good as HD-DVD. Being as I could care less about that (and most special features for the most part), 1.1 is not a big deal to me. Since my first post on the matter, my friend did have to buy a new receiver, but he never fugured out why he couldn't get standard 5.1. I will likely own both formats as well (there just aren't enough out there to justify HD-DVD for my individual tastes).

The good thing about the format war: it has driven prices down substantially on both sides. BR players will continue to drop, and movie prices are not bad considering how new both formats are. I remember paying over $30 for DVDs three years into that game, we are well below that with HD media (and that doesn't even factor in inflation).

Thank goodness I don't have to worry about my speakers being out of date.

The report that the S3 totals did not inclued the box set originated by Blu-ray.com. Once you look at the Neilsen numbers several of the other movies in the top 10 that had been out for multiple weeks would have had to double in sales for that week in order to justify the claim that the 131k claimed for S3 individual disc sales. There was no data or reason to show that those discs suddenly would have doubled in sales over the previous week. I think it was more that a bunch of Blu-ray fanbois wanting to believe that S3 did better than Transformers in individual disc sales.

[JCHout]

One thing I have certainly learned is that the information released is certainly succeptible to spin from both camps (I have gotten several things incorrect by relying on certain sources). Everybody is pushing sales for this quarter, and I really do not think it will be a good judge of the end results. HD-DVD does not have that many big titles coming out compared to Blu, so I think sales will be favoring Blu, but it will be an apples to oranges comparison. The only sales I trust would be Warner releasing how many titles they sold of dual releases, and that can be modified by demographics; i.e. 300 selling more Blu and Planet Earth selling more HD-DVD (is it the PS3 factor?). I actually would be fine with both formats living a peaceful coexistence (but I really would like a Pioneer Elite HD-DVD player), but one format may win in the end. What I do not want is to pay money to Microsoft for lower quality downloads.

[JJkizak]

Playing Bluray/HD-DVD commercial movie discs are one thing but another has surfaced to complicate the issue. Many softwares (Sony/Ulead/Nero) are now able to burn Bluray/HD-DVD/AVCHD to standard el cheapo DVD-+R /DL discs which in fact may induce manufacturers to come out with a cheapo tripple layer disc/player. The standard discs have to be played back on their Bluray/HD-DVD machines, including PS3 and X-box. Watch out, AVCHD is creeping up behind the other two with a large club.

JJK

[CECAA850]

FWIW, mine IS bigger than yours.

[JCHout]

Say, CECAA850, I would be really interested in how your Blu-ray and HD-DVD players compare and what you think of them. I have an Elite 95 Blu-ray on the way and am a big Pioneer Elite fan.

[kkerley33]

So I am chiming in here very late, but when everyone speaks of studio support, you must remember that Toshiba and Microsoft paid Paramount $150 million in subsidies for that support. Until that time, Paramount/Dreamworks supported both formats. Toshiba/Microsoft were counting on a coup by limiting two very popular titles to their format. Those titles are Transformers and Shrek the Third. While the short term may have given a boost in sales, the clock is ticking on the 18 month deal and it didn't cost $150 million for Sony/Panasonic to get their Studio Support.

Another argument that is going to arise is retail chain support. Everyone is making a big deal that K-mart is only carrying HD-DVD. Well that can be countered by the fact that Target is only carrying Blu-Ray....and who shops at K-mart anymore anyways. For any real impact to be made, Wal-Mart would have to make an exclusivity deal...and that won't happen because they don't want to lose the ability to sell Panasonic, Sony and Samsung televisions in their store and not compete with Best Buy and Circuit City.

The only other headache that HD-DVD has is the fact that Blockbuster doesn't have the titles on its shelves. Rental availability will have a signifigant impact in the short term because as stated earlier...no one wants to pay $30 for either format.

If Blu-Ray cuts its cost to a sub $250 level...it would put serious strain on HD-DVD...but either way...Toshiba still wins as Toshiba manufacturers the Blu Lazers for Sony anyways.

KAK

[Guest srobak]

The only other headache that HD-DVD has is the fact that Blockbuster doesn't have the titles on its shelves. Rental availability will have a signifigant impact in the short term because as stated earlier...no one wants to pay $30 for either format.

I don't agree that it will have as much of an impact on the overall market. Blockbuster has been shutting down stores at a record rate over the last 18 months, due largely to the dent that NetFlix (which does carry HD-DVD) and On Demand have been putting into the market. I don't even remember the last time I have been to Blockbuster, and 2 years ago it was a regular thing, every weekend. I can wait the extra few days before something is available through On Demand, and I don't have to burn gas and time to go and do it. Worth the extra dollar right there for me.

[mas]

So folks are still debating HDDVD vs BluRay while ignoring the fact that the VAST majority of users care about neither? OK

A few points.

NEC is the primary supplier of blue lazer diodes for both formats. And their dual mode diode module reduces their total cost via economy of scale and lack of a need to manage various platform inventories (they do both - which has led to some wanting to market a duel mode player, despite the EXPLICIT ban on this stated in the Blu-Ray license...in other words, until this is changed, it aiin't going to happen depite product announcements over the past 2 years).

Also, Blockbuster distributes HD-DVD disks via their direct mail suply chain, just like NetFlix. Only the shelf space is differnt in their stores, the likes of which i haven't seen if far too many years and which I have no intention of changing.

Bottomline, traditional DVDs and upscaled DVDs are just fine. There is NO compelling reason to move to either HD format. And with the move to make HD-DVD players ubiquitous in the majority of consumer laptops and desktop computers, HD will will have a strategic advantage, as users will be inclined to chose that platform that offers compatibility with what they will already have that affords them a more economical choice of large capacity data storage.

In other words, this debate is between the fanboys of the competing HD formats. The problem is that those who care about neither HD format are not even engaged. And THAT is the very problem this debate fails to adequately address.