Blu-Ray/HD-DVD Battle May Not Matter

[mfk]

I like streaming, my building is wired by Verizon FIOS and I really do get some bandwidth because we are a switched network, not broadcast like comcast. Far as the copy protection goes, total bull, people should be allowed to make an archival copy of a movie, and copy protection is like safe sex w/a stranger, it doesn't really exist.

If the MPAA wants to enforce copyright laws, pop the little scumbag street vendors, just to send a message. and tell China the their MFN trade status will be revoked if they don't do something. Those guys want to be treated to our marketplace and get our technology, they should play fair, let the yuan float as opposed to keeping it artificially low (sorry, I digressed, China will probably be my son's war) Hypothetically speaking, I haven't yet met a DVD I couldn't copy, usually right on to my HD, for convenience and one backup copy for when the original goes sideways...in theory.

Whatever format they choose, or stream, it'll be ok with me as long as the DRM relflects a sane policy.

[germerikan]

My oppinion is that streaming is pay per view, thus a copy on a disk is moot. This would reflect the 0.99€ price tag (here in Germany) per movie. Here you also get a "my favorites" in the movie list and at 0,99€ a pop you could stream it 30 times (HD) before you have the price for 1 HD-DVD of either format.

Other than Heavy Metal at the Midnight Matenee I have not seen any movie more than say 10 or 15 times. (Oh forgot Midnight Run I saw that at least 30 times: Choriso and eggs mmmmmmm[])

Ran

[Darkelf]

O.K.....I can't stand it anymore....I have to throw in my opinion.

If you want Bluray, go buy a bluray player and bluray movies. I you want HD-DVD, then go by a player and the movies to go with it. If you really think that streaming video is the way you WANT to go(notice I didn't say what was best or possible) then fine, don't purchase any of the available formats. Use your purchase to cast your vote. Quit waiting for the battle to be over so you can choose to be on the winning side. It is the customers purchasing power that will ulitmately decide the outcome, and customers such as us in this group that are dragging their feet to purchase one or the other format that is truly dragging this on.

O.K.....I feel a little bit better now. Why are we all so crazy on this subject anyway???

[mas]

Man, various committments to streaming and downloadable video services are being announced faster than they can be reported at CES! They are coming from #$%@# everywhere!

You think that may have (had) a small part in pushing the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray debate along? Well, if it hasn't, they risk being rendered superfluous as the equivalent of recordable download - aka what the iPod/MP3 - movement have done to CDs

Nifty, convenient, easy. Despite being a technoid, i will remain a curmudgeon as I require a hard copy...but hey, no one seems to be soliciting my opinion before they buy or sell! (Me, while I like the whiz bang easy access, and while I can see the attraction of an online deliverables for some scenarios, I still want the archivable hard copy. And I am simply not into the pay per use model, although many seem to love it. Oh well. Although I still burn CDs for alternative uses such as the car and casual use with the 'master' remaining archived, I have not felt compelled to run to MP3s or to live glued to a #$@% cell-phone that simply insures that someone can find me at 3Am in the bathroom. But hey, what do I know, I still have a perfectly functioning Super-Beta HiFi unit featuring S/N <1dB of a CD...

But then again, I don't sit in front of the boob tube and watch every new Adam Sandler movie that is released. In fact, I am probably a full 10 years behind in seeing new releases, with only a handfull of notable exceptions. I like the classics and to watch movies that I am more inclined to view again and again. So what is with the delay in the DVD release of African Queen (please don't tell me the master disintigrated!). But hey, WildWildWest.V4 is to be released in March and I am just waiting for the next year of Have Gun Will Travel. Who needs 90% of the new schlock being released. But I would sure wish they they would release the Year 2 onward of the complete New Outer Limits, and I wish they would release the remaining years of the absolutely incredible Canadian produced "The Industy/aka Made In Canada". The wittily inteliigent insanity coupled with the ascerbic and sardonic humor is absolutely delightful. This is often shown on PBS - OK, so occassionally they have a purpose. Ranger Rick was never so delightful! ;-)

(And since I am on a rant for unreleased 'stuff', when is Capitol ever going to release Steve Miller's Recall the Beginning - Journey from Eden????? And it would sure be nice to have the Flying Burrito Bros' dbl LP Live In Amsterdam (Ariola 86-439-XCT Holland) released on CD)

I suspect that the market pressure will result in a Pyrrhic victory for BR. But with the cost still prohibitively high, does it really matter compared to the other market options available to the average consumer and cable & satellite TV viewer? Drop the price of a player to $160 and the cost of the media to $20. Then they have a chance. Otherwise...

The fact is that we seem to be reaching the tipping point in realizable alternative technologies in this regard, and a quick perusal of the major CES themes will both reinforce and perhaps open your eyes to where the industry is going:

http://www.betanews.com/roundup/Trends_to_watch_during_CES_2008/1199659038

Looks like market developments are not going to wait for anyone to putz around as they decide where the market is going

And what about Apple 's new MacPro - with two 3.2 GHz Quad-Core Xeon processors in the Mac Pro, and up to two 3.0 GHz
Quad-Core Xeons in the Xserve. Both Xserve and Mac Pro
will feature a 1600 MHz front-side bus, and up to 32 GB of 800 MHz DDR2
FB-DIMM memory. Both for less than $3000! ($2799MacPro and $2999 XServe) D@mn!

Storage options include up to 3 TB of storage on the Xserve, and 4 TB on the Mac Pro.

Other
features on the Mac Pro include: ATI Radeon HD 2600XT graphics card
with 256 MB of video memory; five USB 2.0, two FireWire 400, two
FireWire 800, optical and analog audio, dual gigabit Ethernet, and
headphone jack ports; and the new Apple Keyboard with Bluetooth 2.0.

And that is not even what they are going to announce at MacWorld which is a week or so away!

So many developments....things be changin' fast!

.

[Catharsis147]

I dont't think it is unfiar for honest, working people who have other priorities besides audio to wait until the dust settles with this format war. No one wants to be on the losing side because they will have invested hundreds of their hard earned dollars on a format that could potentially go the way of BETA. What is dragging this on are the companies who were (and are) simply too greedy to take a small hit in their profits to produce a sinlge HD-DVD medium. THAT is the ONLY thing dragging this ridiculous format war on.

We are all crazy about this subject because every single one of us would love to take advantage of these formats and what they have to offer, but feel stifled that either choice could represent a lesson in futility, especially if MAS's prediction comes true.

Forgive me, and correct me, if I am wrong.

[mas]

What is dragging this on are the companies who were (and are) simply too greedy to take a small hit in their profits to produce a sinlge HD-DVD medium. THAT is the ONLY thing dragging this ridiculous format war on.

In all fairness, Sony COULD have avoided this entire mess that is of their own making. The HD-DVD consortium was formed a full 2 years after Sony announced Blu-Ray in response to the same mismanaged (manufacturer's) market bullying that Sony employed with Beta.

And Sony still can't make their machines at a a profit, what with the latest market estimates saying they loos ~$100 on each PS3.

And it's not simply greed, as the technology did not simply fall from the sky for all to use - as if it is only a matter of agreeing on a format... But then I am certainly not going to posit that it is totally enlightened providence either!

And we also have to understand that , unlike many folk's view that all want this, the VAST majority of the market, for whatever reason, have no clamored for a HD format any more than the vast majority of the audio market demanded SACD or DVD-A. The fact is, the majority of the market seems content to lisen and watch iPod based audio and video. That is where the real market growth is. And the move to flat screen TV is not even being driven by the utter fascination and need to buy a new whiz bang TV. The mandate to move to digital (which will be another disaster to distract us - if for not only the current SNAFU/FUBAR regarding testing and rollout where stations end up stepping on each other's frequencies in the process - its a mess, and you will be hearing more about this as time passes! Anticipate a "rolling 'hard' deadline! How's that for an oxymoron? But hey, thank the government. Folks are NOT going to be ecstatic about "digital TV" Heck, how many are already impressed by the limited audio gain?)

But lots of consumer driven factors - and even more manufacturer's cost decisions are at play here. And the manufacturer's have allot more at stake here than any of us who stand only to be simply stuck with an orphaned DVD player for our 6 disks!

It' ll all work out. The passion play is quite remarkable; yet my advice is to simply wait a bit and not be an early adopter unles there is simething compelling for YOU! And if you do, do so with the full awareness that you may pay the price for being an early adopter of an orphaned technology. So, if you cannot afford to do that, that is simply another great reason to wait and enjoy your upscaled DVDs and cable/satellite TV.

[el jopez]

And I will let you folks query the stories regarding MS turning the

XBox360 into an IPTV device (not yet in the US) ....

Old news which many of us gamers have been "waiting" on for about

two years now. MS stated this service would be available in the US last

fall, yet its already available for a few months in the UK.

There was another quote in the thread regarding the future use of BitTorrent

tech with the IPTV service that MS is launching in the UK. My concern for

US customers is the continual file sharing lawsuits that have plagues this

country. I have read on several tech blogs/forums etc that some ISP's

have shutdown and threaten to terminate accounts if suspected use of BitTorrent

applications/transmission are detected. To note there is nothing

"illegal" about BitTorrents, it simply is the preferred mode of file

sharing for just about everything.

[anarchist]

Pipedream. What is that? Pipedream. What? Some of you folks apparently have no understanding of most of the country. Dark fiber. Whoo hoo! Where? Not outside the big cities. Not available in the vast majority of the country. Oh, there are trunk lines. But then you must get them out to the individual homes. I have a telco 2 miles from my house which is digital. For ten years I have been waiting for DSL. They have no plans (because it would mean new lines to the individual houses) to bring even DSL here for at least 5 more years. We are still on dial-up. No DSL. No ISDN. No cable. Nothing. I can't even get broadband wireless. Satellite access? You are joking right? The number of subscribers already taxes the system and results in bandwidth limitations; not to mention the latency issues.

Anyone who thinks the infrastructure in place now is sufficient lives in a vacuum and/or doesn't know Moores Law.

[mas]

Pipedream. What is that? Pipedream. What? Some of you folks apparently have no understanding of most of the country. Dark fiber. Whoo hoo! Where? Not outside the big cities. Not available in the vast majority of the country. Oh, there are trunk lines. But then you must get them out to the individual homes. I have a telco 2 miles from my house which is digital. For ten years I have been waiting for DSL. They have no plans (because it would mean new lines to the individual houses) to bring even DSL here for at least 5 more years. We are still on dial-up. No DSL. No ISDN. No cable. Nothing. I can't even get broadband wireless. Satellite access? You are joking right? The number of subscribers already taxes the system and results in bandwidth limitations; not to mention the latency issues.

Anyone who thinks the infrastructure in place now is sufficient lives in a vacuum and/or doesn't know Moores Law.

LOL...

This sounds like the lament of Tom Hank's character in Castaway predictng the failure of telephone, cable TV, and satellite all because he doesn't get the service!

So we are back at the low density penetration issue that has not stopped any of the telcos, cable or satellite cable's success thus far and poses no threat to rolling out new technology in the future...at least not until lower cost means of deployment are developed; ...and penetration into low density areas will not occur until it is more economically viable..

. or until the gubermint becomes involved. And that is a totally separate debate! And being an 'anarchist', I am sure that you reject compulsory government interference, and would never support the increased regulation in the private sector by the state!

But from a purely business perspective, the companies are justified if they choose not to invest in regions where the revenue generated will not offset the build and maintenance costs... I understand the personal frustration of having to make choices. Thus this becomes a 'quality of life' choice you make when you choose where to live. Personally I chose to live in a neighborhood without street lights and sidewalks a bit more in the country...and yet with the growth I continue to hear folks who just moved here lament the lack of such 'resources'. All I can say is WHY didn't they relocate just a few miles in any direction for those features if they are so important? I moved here to get away from it and to be able to see the stars. If high speed online access is a critical feature, be aware of the possible tradeoffs of having the luxury of living away from the congestion of high density living with high speed access.

So, if you are in a low density area, the telcos and cable companies have already told you that you don't matter, as their costs to reach you do not justify their business investment (unless you, and any other who would be serviced, are willing to pay for the associated costs). I suspect the same is true for many utilities such as natural gas. But all of this is secondary to the evakuation of the viability of new services in the percentage of the market/infrastructure that is in place!

So the fact that you and many other folks are in low denisty areas mean that you can lean on the traditional methods like NetFlix or a local rental business, mean little to the existence of network services in the more densely populated major markets.

But the fact that the financial analysis of the telcos and cable companies have decided that you and others in low density areas won't be built out has no bearing on the sucess or failure of the proposed delivery systems. You might want to do a bit more study of the financial models used to determine plant build density requirements. Exceptions don't make the rule. And their basic market has succeeded just fine without low denisty area buildouts for their existing servce! The fact is that in larger more dense markets, there is sufficient infrastructure. And that is their major market. They don't need the low denisty areas as their costs will exceed their income. The math is pretty simple.

Its one thing to lament the dearth of DSL in low density areas like the 'Australian outback', but that doesn't mean the concept of wired or wireless communications won't succeed! Its called ROI.

Addendum, in the most mockingly sarcastic over-the-top hypebole possible []:

I really get a kick out of the folks who say that digital delivery of HD can't be done. Please tell AT&T, the cable TV companies, and the satellite providers that they they are liars and that they simply can't do this. (And remind them that they haven't been doing exactly this for quite some time!)

And i would certainly also demand a refund for any monies you may have paid them for the delivery of HD content as well!

And after witnessing the announcements of all of the companies and various partnerships who have expressed their intent to do exactly this at CES, I fell like I may be the only entity who has not announced some plan to do so!

Yup, what is already being done on a wide scale (but which is just not intended for archival use) simply can't be done! Its impossible! And all of the companies who have been researching and developing management schemas and supply chain management scenarios are idiots as well. Gee, if only they knew that this concept is impossible!

And load balancing as well as a centrally managed distributed network of nodes providing source material is simply too complex to even imagine. So I have simply refused to imagine it. And when I close my eyes, my monthly bills also go away!

So why worry folks, its all just a ruse! Digital delivery of HD content is impossible. LOL!

The next thing we will be hearing is that man can fly!

ROFLMAO!

[Guest srobak]

I have a telco 2 miles from my house which is digital. For ten years I have been waiting for DSL. They have no plans (because it would mean new lines to the individual houses) to bring even DSL here for at least 5 more years. We are still on dial-up. No DSL. No ISDN. No cable. Nothing. I can't even get broadband wireless.

While I agree with some of what you said - the info above regarding DSL is incorrect. The effective range for DSL (not counting ADSL and other technologies which is further) is 18000+ feet from the CO. At 2 miles - even as the road drives (vs. the crow flies) you are well within that limit. DSL requires NO additional lines being pulled outside of the CO - simply pigtailed at the CO with injectors to put it over existing phone lines. You haven't needed a separate pair for DSL in nearly a decade. There are in-line filters and traps that take care of splitting the signal out and not tie up your phone line. Might want to check with them again, if indeed you are 2 miles from the CO, and they have DSL service avail from the CO itself.

Your avatar says Lexington... I am actually through that region, outside of the city even - a few times a year and have used wireless broadband from both Cingular/AT&T and Sprint without any problem both in my hotel and from the car and even at the plant in Nicholasville for the last couple of years... *shrug*

[anarchist]

Mas,

I hate to say this but I can't find anything in your post objectionable; my point is delivery will not be ubiquitous. Can they secure enough business in a few cities to move on-demand into the mainstream - we would need to see a business model and projections.

Srobak,

I have contacted the telco, accosted the servicemen when they are working on the lines, etc. I have explained there is no reason I shouldn't have service given my location. Even with a digital CO, they are not providing DSL and explain the lines out from that location will not support it, talk about capacity, yada yada yada. They will gladly provide me a T1 from that CO.

Yes, there is wireless broadband available and in town I can get good speeds - most of the time, I drive to the library if work dictates I will be doing a lot online - but at home, 8 miles from the center of town, I don't get G3 and am reduced to speeds a couple times over dial-up.

[Guest srobak]

I have contacted the telco, accosted the servicemen when they are working on the lines, etc. I have explained there is no reason I shouldn't have service given my location. Even with a digital CO, they are not providing DSL and explain the lines out from that location will not support it, talk about capacity, yada yada yada. They will gladly provide me a T1 from that CO.

Of course... T1 makes them money... if you get it. Sounds to me that otherwise - while the CO might be digital - they don't have the rest of the infrastructure in place at the CO to actually put it to use. Nice...

Good luck... maybe Verizon FiOS will come to you soon... or you could move closer to the city? hehe

[mas]

Do they have a significant enough market to make this work??

Just look at their established base now! Let's see, do the telcos or cable companies or satellite companies have enough subscribers? Or have they all folded? And for those portending the collapse of satllite capacity, aS has already been demonstrated, the cost of sending up another satellite is minisculte compared to their competitors cost per customer!

The fact is that this additional service is simply ANOTHER revenue stream!

And the new entrants don't have to build ANY new plant! They use the existing infratstructure. (Hence mush of the fight over Net neutrality!!!!)

All they have to do is generate more revenue than their cost of doing business and they succeed!

For new entrants it will be a classic case of competing with the
established service providers to capture enough market to be viable.
But that in no way threatens the fundamental issue of digital delivery
- just who does it!

But instead of looking at a very simple business model, we have folks here arguing that what is already being done on a large scale by telcos, cableTV and satellite providers (namely, distribute HD source material) Can't be done! And the larger fact is that online delivery of movies need not ALL be HD!!! In can be any mix they like, or for that matter, no HD! The concept is still valid and possible.

And the objection - what if no one wants it....OK. Then wait a few
years when the manufacturers will decide for you, just like they did
wth vinyl when they decide that their delivery and inventory management
costs exceed what their costs are for digital delivery. But then they
won't ask you.

And now I suspect that the same folks who said that this is impossible will try to debate that the net cannot simply sustain the downloads as if all would be distributed from some central hub simultaneously in a linear fashion. So before anyone even goes there, please explore some of the various routing and scheduling methodologies available, including the rampant use of bit torrent and other techniques And you might want to explore just the partnering and announcements at CES of the various compnaies and manufacturers with the various bit torrent distribution companies! Oh, and to anticipate yet another cry, NO! all bit torrent use is not banned or illegal at all! And it can easily be used legitimately!

And low latency , high bandwidth, fault tolerant switches are now 'old hat' That hurdle has already been tackled. And the technology is widely available that leap frogs what the telcos now have in place should they desire it should the increase in traffic require it over existing trunk lines, as the feeders and drops will not see significant increase beyond their capacities. Again, for those not aware of this technology, it has been available, and in many places implimented, for quite awhile.

The irony is that the telcos, more than any other industry were among the first to clamor at IBM's door when The Switch was first deveolped for the RS/000SP, and the subsequent development of the switched routers for computer network use were specifically enginered for future oriented telco use as well. And that was over 10 years ago! And advancement has continued! The fact is that ALLOT of the technology is far ahead of the current 'pedestrian' demands.

And servers are cheap. The ability to seed distibution nodes as needed in a centrally managed and coordinated fashion featuring high availability and load balanced features is a cinch. Again, this technology is OLD HAT. Is anyone even aware of HAGEO and GeoRM? The capabilities are amazing and far beyond what most have even imagined - and the necessary supply chain management required for this project are as minimal as they come, compared to other scenarios for which this technology has been routined employed. And you may be surprised that the base systems are already the norm in most of the telcos and satellite infrastructure as well.

While most are only aware of control technologies on a PC or multi-server enterprise basis, this market is FAR more advanced and FAR more mature than many dare even imagine! - But NO! You will not find this in the Windows world. In fact, it is this perspective that makes anyone aware of it so woefully aware of how inadequate the Windows environment really is, as advanced as it may seem.

[ARPRINCE]

Well at least WALMART tried.