Groomlakearea51 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Speaking of SST's.... Here's today's temps, and as you can tell, it's still warm out there.... Fortunately (for Florida...) the warmest temps are in the Carribean and between the Cuba and the S. American coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 This next graphic shows the "shear" or steering current for 200-850 MB as forecast for 72 hours out. Again, the net effect is to steer the system north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Yesterday was the end of "summer", but some of the worst storms for the east coast occur in this last 10 days of September (Hurricane Jeanne, Wilma, etc.). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Statistically, this system is predicted to follow the "norm" for September.... Here's September's general origin and paths based upon the statistical data available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Unfortunately...., October can be very dangerous for Florida...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Are we in a "peak period".... Well... look at Okeechobee County. From 1900 through last year there have been 12 "hits" of which 3 (Frances, Jeanne and Wilma) were direct "eye wall" over the County hits in 2004-2005. Statistically, that means 25% of the "strikes" have occurred in only 4% of the period...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Of course this image just makes everyone feel so much better..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LarryC Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 What is it about the northern tropical waters off the West coast of these two continents that generates hurricanes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 22, 2008 Author Share Posted September 22, 2008 Short version.... Hot air coming off the coasts as low pressure "waves". Nothing to break them up (as in terrain) and due to the Coriolis effect, trade winds, and these waves move west across the warm waters prevalent during the season. That warm water produces alot of evaporation and the moisture is picked up by the low pressure waves, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LarryC Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Very interesting, thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 23, 2008 Author Share Posted September 23, 2008 Well.... It's still sitting there, just dumping rain on Haiti (as if they need any more.....) and getting ready, according to the NHC, to head north west. Here's the NHC text: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTH OR NORTHWEST AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... HISPANIOLA... THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 23, 2008 Author Share Posted September 23, 2008 The MILSAT visible image from this morning.. It's big storm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 23, 2008 Author Share Posted September 23, 2008 The streamlines still tend to keep it away from the coast of Florida... at least for 24 hours: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 23, 2008 Author Share Posted September 23, 2008 Here's the streamlines for Friday; still shoving it north: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 23, 2008 Author Share Posted September 23, 2008 Here's the spaghetti's...... They are pretty much in agreement (at the moment)..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallette Posted September 23, 2008 Share Posted September 23, 2008 >Here's the spaghetti's...... They are pretty much in agreement (at the moment)..... That's because we in Texas are pretty much sending vides of "Don't even THINK about messing with Texas." We've had it for this season, thank you very much. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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