Hurricane Season - 2008

[Groomlakearea51]

ARTHUR HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AS IT CONTINUES TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF LAND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR IS CENTERED
OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18.1N 90.7W ABOUT 110 NM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
AT 01/1500 UTC MOVING WSW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF
DENSE CLOUDINESS OVER GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NEARBY WATERS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS (LIKELY THE
HEAVIEST RAINS) AT THE MOMENT ARE OVER BELIZE...THE E PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...EVEN THE LOWER TOPPED CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AS CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. AS ALWAYS IN THESE CASES...FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

[Groomlakearea51]

MILITARY ESTIMATE:

[Groomlakearea51]

MILSAT VISIBLE IMAGE

[Groomlakearea51]

MILITARY INFRARED (COLD = WHITE SPOTS)

[Groomlakearea51]

LATEST MILSAT PHOTO OF NORTH ATLANTIC

[Groomlakearea51]

FORUM MEMBERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS ESTIMATE OF POTENTIAL TRACKS.

WHILE THE TRACK SHIFTS LIEKLEY POSE NO THREAT TO THE US, THEY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND ARTHUR COULD RE-ENTER THE GULF AT SOME POINT AND POSE A WEATHER CONDITION TO TEXAS.

[Dflip]

This time of the year again. The good news, the worst hurricanes occur between August 15th and September 15th, most of the category 3,4's and 5's. I will lend a hand when the school year is over up here, the end of June. It just seems like an early start, hopefully not a warning of a bad year.

Hopefully they all run south like last year, the down side, there were two category 5 hurricanes last year.

[CECAA850]

WHILE THE TRACK SHIFTS LIEKLEY POSE NO THREAT TO THE US, THEY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND ARTHUR COULD RE-ENTER THE GULF AT SOME POINT AND POSE A WEATHER CONDITION TO TEXAS.

Hurricane, we don't need no steenkin hurricane.

[InnerTuber]

Last year was too easy. Hope this year isn't bad.

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY HURRICANE FORECAST TEAM PREDICTS ABOVE-AVERAGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON IN 2008
FORT COLLINS - Colorado State University hurricane forecasters today maintained an earlier forecast that called for a very active 2008 season. The hurricane forecast team is calling for 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin during this year's hurricane season. Eight of the storms are expected to become hurricanes with four becoming intense hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed on May 31, is included in the CSU hurricane forecast, meaning that 14 more named storms are expected this year.

"Conditions in the tropical Atlantic look quite favorable for an active hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures are anomalously warm, while sea level pressures and levels of vertical wind shear are quite low," said Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State hurricane forecast team and the lead author of the forecast. "Our primary concern is the warming waters in the equatorial Pacific. At this point, we do not believe that an El Nino will develop by late this summer; however, this is a possibility that must be monitored closely."

The hurricane forecast team is using a new statistical model to predict tropical cyclone activity this year. This model shows considerable improvement in skill over the models that have been used to issue June predictions over the past few years.

The hurricane forecast team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2008 will be 160 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2005 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 275 percent of the average season. The 2007 season witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was approximately 100 percent of the average season with a total of 15 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes forming last year. Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

The hurricane forecast team reiterated its probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil:
- A 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2008 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent).

- A 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent)

- A 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

The team also predicted above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.
"The Atlantic has seen a very large increase in major hurricanes during the 13-year period of 1995-2007 (average 3.8 per year) in comparison to the prior 25-year period of 1970-1994 (average 1.5 per year)," said William Gray, who began forecasting hurricane seasons at Colorado State 25 years ago. "This large increase in Atlantic major hurricanes is primarily a result of the multi-decadal increase in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) that is not directly related to global temperature increase. Changes in ocean salinity are believed to be the driving mechanism."

For 2008, Klotzbach and Gray expect continued warm tropical and north Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, prevalent in most years since 1995, as well as neutral ENSO conditions - a recipe for enhanced Atlantic basin hurricane activity.

These factors are similar to conditions that occurred during the 1951, 1961, 2000 and 2001 seasons. The average of these four seasons had well above-average activity, and Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2008 season will have activity in line with the average of these four years.

"This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter-century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925," Gray said. "Atlantic hurricanes go through multi-decadal cycles."

The past two years - 2006 and 2007 - had slightly below-average and average activity, respectively, with only one Category 1 hurricane (Humberto) making landfall on U.S. soil in 2007. The Colorado State hurricane forecast team has said the hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 were anomalies: Florida and the Gulf Coast were ravaged by four landfalling hurricanes each year. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne caused devastating damage in 2004 followed by Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005.

"Coastal residents need to prepare for every hurricane season, regardless of seasonal predictions," Klotzbach said. "There is inherent uncertainty in seasonal predictions. Also, seasonal forecasts cannot say anything about when or where storms are going to make landfall."

Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and intense hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of time periods are listed on the forecast team's Landfall Probability Web site. The site provides U.S. landfall probabilities for 11 regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. The Web site, available to the public at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane , is the first publicly accessible Internet tool that adjusts landfall probabilities for regions and counties based on the current climate and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season. Klotzbach and Gray update the site regularly with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State College in Massachusetts. The website has recently been upgraded to provide increased functionality.

The hurricane team's forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.

The team will issue seasonal updates of its 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1. These forecasts will contain predictions for the individual months of August, September and October.

GRAY RESEARCH TEAM
ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2008
-Released June 3, 2008-
Tropical Cyclone Parameters
(1950-2000 Climatological Averages in parentheses) Forecast for 2008
Named Storms (9.6)* 15
Named Storm Days (49.1) 80
Hurricanes (5.9) 8
Hurricane Days (24.5) 40
Intense Hurricanes (2.3) 4
Intense Hurricane Days (5.0) 9
Net Tropical Cyclone
Activity (100%) 160
* Numbers in ( ) represent average year totals based on 1950-2000 data.

[dtel's wife]

Very interesting graphics in that link InnerTuber....more interesting than I care to think about....we are Region 3, pretty high statistics.

Groomy, hope everything is going okay your way. Thanks for the updates.

[InnerTuber]

Yeah we can really get jerked around by these storms. Other than the obvious rain and wind, which actually can blow citrus trees right out of the ground, they spread agricultural diseases. I'd never really thought about that until all the issues with citrus canker here in Florida. Plus the high tides if a storm gets the right angle cause huge damage. I know one day our pool with self convert to saltwater which is why I can't put a home theater in downstairs. But we like it here. I don't think sand is very condusive to earthquakes so we have that going for us. I'll post some spaghetti charts when they come out next storm and share how confused everyone really is about the storm tracks.

See that area between zone 3 and 5 where activity is rather null, theory I hear is that it's due to the shallow gulf. From Tampa you go out a mile and water is 15 feet in the bay and out the skyway it drops to 20-25 feet. Go north 30 miles and the Gulf is shallow for miles. Oddly, even tho hurricanes don't seem to go there, there was a no-name storm several years back that crammed water up ever river in that no activity area and caused severe flooding all the way inland to US 19. My brother in laws boat floated away lashed to it's trailer and they found it still sitting on the trailer up the Crytal River. Gotta love and respect Mother Nature.

[dtel's wife]

I can't recall ever seeing something like this at the NOAA Tropical Prediction Center. I hope it a sign for things to come!

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABNT20 KNHC 091757 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB

[Groomlakearea51]

Maybe.... Maybe not......

ABNT20 KNHC 011159
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[Groomlakearea51]

It's fairly large.... Little early in the season..... but here's the visual image:

[CECAA850]

And so it begins..............

[Dflip]

Category 1 at 90 mph and may hit cat 2 later in the day. It doesn't look it's going anywhere near the mainland. Now I don't think I would plan a weekend trip to Bermuda.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 775 MILES...
1250 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

[Dflip]

Bertha seems to be weakening some, probably due to it's northerly direction into cooler water and a reduced source of energy.

...BERTHA WEAKENS BUT STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST OR ABOUT 660 MILES...
1065 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
975 MILES...1570 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Dflip]

...BERTHA EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY BUT COULD REGAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

[CECAA850]

Time to resurrect the thread. I think I got one coming my way.

[InnerTuber]

New fcst from by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray dated 5 August

POST 1-AUGUST PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 67% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 43% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 42% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts