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The most relevant part of the latest prediction on Depression Thirteen" THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. Unfortunately, that doesn't include much of Texas other than Houston for the next couple of days. It is scheduled to hit land just before dinner on Saturday and not leave Mississippi until after midnight, Monday morning. The rain has already started and will go on for a while. Dave, stop smiling.

A NOAA link so that you can look at the flood levels in various rivers in the U.S. Take a look at Prattsville N.Y., Essex Junction, Jeffersonville and Central Rutland, Vermont and a lot of towns in New Jersey within 10 miles of the Hudson River. This could be useful for other flooding occurances during the year. A good link. http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

Here is tropical depression twelve. It appears that it's going far enough to the north that it will be head out to sea before it gets to the U.S.

New York missed the worst of it, but the flooding on the banks of the rivers of the surrounding areas is not so good. Manayunk in Philadelphia has flooding near the river. Upstate N.Y. and Vermont are experiencing flooding in areas inland. People need to stay away from these swollen rivers. So far 15 people have died and CNN showed fools swimming or trying to surf along the Connecticut and Rhode Island Coast.

The 11 pm update. Check out the highlighted text below and another little reminder is what are those high rise wind tunnels like during a normal windy day? Now add a 75 mph wind and there could be a lot of flying objects at street level. HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 IRENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THE RADAR DEPICTION HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE THIS EVENING HAS FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 92 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 66 KT IN A SMALL AREA MORE THAN 100 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WIND FIELD GRAPHICS BASED ON THE FOUR-QUADRANT RADII WILL DEPICT AN UNREALISTICALLY LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/14...AND IRENE REMAINS ON TRACK. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SKIRT THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER IRENE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ON LONG ISLAND...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF MOST HURRICANES. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE WIND FIELD OF IRENE...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IT WILL ONLY TAKE MODEST CONVECTION TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE AS SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS. MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE BUILDINGS COULD EXPERIENCE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS. WINDS AT THE 30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE ABOUT 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 37.3N 75.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 44.0N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 48.5N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/0000Z 52.4N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z 57.7N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0000Z 60.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z 61.2N 24.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Some interesting pictures on CNN from Atlantic Beach, N.C. where the eye has passed and now the winds are coming from the west and pushing water from Bogue Sound onto the barrier island and flooding the island with two to three feet of water, with more in some areas. Aurora, N.C. was reported to have 4 feet of water downtown. It's located in a bay on the western side of Pamlico Bay. The winds from this storm will affect the coast with a progression of winds starting from the southeast, then east, northeast, north, northwest and finally the west. The Jersey coast is projected to get 5 - 10 inches of rain with much of it on the western side of the storm. There are also an increasing number of smaller tornado warnings north of the North Carolina - Virginia border. Lots of rain and flooding from the large extended rainfall and storm surge equals a very expensive storm with flooded first floors and basements. New York City public transportation stops at 12 noon today and the power in the Lower Manhattan is going to be shut off early tomorrow morning. The N.Y. airports will be closed over the weekend due to likely flooding of both JFK and LaGuardia. The other lovely news, guess what is likely to go up over the next two weeks or so.... gas prices.

The 11 pm update. The forecast is a bit more to the east which puts Irene along the coast of New Jersey. Very little of the North Carolina coast will be in the way and this will not slow her down as quickly and this could be bad news for New York. The forecast has Irene in the middle of Long Island at the moment, but it will still push a lot of water towards the East and Hudson Rivers. NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE FOUND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 950-951 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 99 KT TO 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR TYPICALLY YIELDS. THIS DISPARITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY HAVE BEEN INDICATING VIGOROUS CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE...WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT OR GREATER AT ALTITUDE ABOVE 15000 FEET. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF IRENE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT. RADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE IRENE HAS MADE THE LONG-FORECAST TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NOW AND IS MOVING AT 020/12 KT. IRENE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE TRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HOWEVER...LAND INTERACTION... COOLER WATER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF IRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS OVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 32.6N 76.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 43.8N 71.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 52.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0000Z 56.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z 57.5N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER STEWART

CNN was just reporting that rain will last for 24 hours because of the size of the storm with 12 hours before the eye hits and 12 hours later. The biggest danger is the storm surge which will hit the New York area at high tide. A number of areas along the coast will also have to worry about the storm surge as the storm approaches them from the southeast and then when the winds shift to it coming from the north with a second storm surge. Up to 7 or 8 foot storm surges along Chesapeake and Delaware Bays. To quote the New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie... “Get the…off the beach … and get in your car,” Governor Christie said during a late Friday afternoon news conference. “You’re done, its 4:30, you’ve maximized your tan.” “We have the possibility of record flooding,” said Governor Christie. “So just by awful luck, this thing it hitting New Jersey at a time when we’re at high tide, so the likelihood of flooding along the coast is overwhelming - and serious flooding along the coast - not just like you’re feet are getting wet.”

The 5 p.m. update. The good news is the winds are down from earlier predictions, the bad news is the storm is so big that it is going to produce a lot of rain over a very large area which will mean flooding. If I remember Marshall's comment from past years, it wasn't the winds from Frances that caused shingle failure in Florida because it was a CAT 1 storm, but the 12 hours plus of non-stop rain and wind that the shingles couldn't withstand and ultimately failed. Good luck to those of you in North Carolina. HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY HIGHER WINDS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...DATA FROM NEAR THE CONCLUSION OF THE FLIGHT SUPPORT A SLIGHT LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT 225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS ERODED. ALTHOUGH IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY RESTRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IMPACTS FROM THIS LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT IF IT IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END HURRICANE. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. IRENE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING UP THE EAST COAST...AND BE MOVING AT ABOUT 15-17 KT AS IT APPROACHES LONG ISLAND...MUCH SLOWER THAN NORMAL FOR STORMS IN THIS AREA...WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN MANY AREAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 31.7N 77.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 33.4N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 35.5N 76.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 38.2N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 28/1800Z 41.8N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1800Z 50.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/1800Z 56.5N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z 58.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

The 11 p.m. update. The outer bands of Irene are supplying rain almost 200 miles from the eye. Chili bone, it sounds like you are going to get a good kick from Irene, just be greatful you aren't another 100 - 125 miles up the North Carolina coast. It's hard to avoid Irene because it's just so darn big. I saw tv images today of the forced evacuation of the barrier islands and some of the coastal areas. New York was even warning people in low lying areas to get out today because the public transit system isn't likely to be working on Saturday if Irene hits them directly and people will not be able to get to safety. In 1821 a hurricane hit Manhattan and flooded it with 13 feet of water as the Hudson and East River met, on August 25, 1893 a 30 foot storm surge flooded Queens and Brooklyn and the “Long Island Express” of 1938, with 183-mile-per-hour winds ripped through a spacely populated island. A CAT hurricane would require people within 10 blocks of the coast to risk flooding and a CAT 3 could produce a 30 foot storm surge and flood out the subway system. City officials drew up evacuation contingency plans for areas of the city most prone to flooding, such as Coney Island and Manhattan Beach in Brooklyn, and the Rockaways in Queens. South Beach and other coastal areas in Staten Island, as well as Battery Park City in Manhattan, could also be at risk. Mayor Bloomberg said any decision to evacuate residents would not take place until Friday night and would likely be a recommendation, rather than an across-the-board order. A total of 270,000 people could be affected, he added. HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 TWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ONE AIR FORCE AND ONE NOAA...ARE AGAIN TONIGHT SUPPLYING VERY VALUABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. BOTH PLANES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY FALLING AND IS NOW NEAR 942 MB...BUT THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED YET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. IRENE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND IS NOW OVER OPEN WATERS. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IT APPEARS THAT THE EYEWALL IS CONTRACTING. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND THE WARM WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA A POWERFUL HURRICANE. IN FACT...THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF SHOWS A VERY INTENSE CYCLONE APPROACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS READY TO INTERACT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IRENE HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT NORTHWARD WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES OR PASSES NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...GIVING NO REASON TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE U.S. WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 28.3N 77.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 30.0N 77.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 31.8N 77.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 33.7N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 36.0N 76.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 42.0N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0000Z 51.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0000Z 58.0N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA

The 5 pm update for Irene is below. For Jay, the prediction is about 85 mph winds in the NYC area. The forcast for N.C. is a bit more to the west, probably closer to Bear Creek, Marine Corps Camp Lejeune. As Marshall pointed out, the homes in the northeast are not used to 85 mph winds and the Atlantic City coast is going to be dealing with 110 mph winds. Unlike many hurricanes, hitting the coast is not going to take a lot out of Irene because it is moving parallel to the coast which is it's source of water and energy. This is a big storm and storm surges are expected. Remember the number one cause of deaths in a hurricane is flooding and these areas are going to get a lot of rain in addition to a significant storm surge, see below. STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 THE EYE OF IRENE MOVED OVER ABACO ISLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON THE ISLAND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950.4 MB AROUND 1700 UTC. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS AFTERNOON HAS REPORTED A 700 MB PEAK-FLIGHT WIND OF 99 KT. ALTHOUGH RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE 100-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY...WE WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY FOR A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS HIGHER WINDS. IRENE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD BY EARLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A HEADING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH BYPASSES THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE IRENE IN A STEERING PATTERN THAT SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON THAT GENERAL HEADING AS IT MOVES VERY NEAR OR OVER MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS. SINCE IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IRENE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR IRENE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER...THE UPDATED FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LOWER INTENSITY OVER THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION... IT WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 27.0N 77.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 28.7N 77.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 30.6N 77.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 32.5N 77.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 34.5N 76.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 39.8N 74.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/1800Z 48.5N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/1800Z 56.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN

The 5 a.m update for Irene which is about the same intensity wise, but... the new forecast is a bit to the west which means it will not be missing Cape Hatteras and is now aimed at Moorhead City, N.C. There is a hurricane watch from Wilmington right up to Virginia Beach. It will still be a hurricane as it moves up the Maryland and New Jersey Coast, so they likely will be under a hurricane watch later today or tomorrow. Long Island will get less than before, but the middle to just west of that part of Long Island is going to get hit with lesser winds. I'm going at golfing this afternoon after our two hour thunderstorm in Toronto. We have had weird weather the past week. A tornado west of here, flash flood conditions and last night's storm. Nothing in comparison to Irene, but still somewhat unusual. My next post will be later today when I get home. NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE A FEW HOURS AGO FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 950 MB. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS. IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS WAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 315/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IRENE AND THE HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT IRENE FROM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS BRACKETED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL ON THE EAST AND THE GFDL MODEL ON THE WEST. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 24.6N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 26.1N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.7W 115 KT 135 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 30.4N 77.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 32.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 36.3N 75.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 42.5N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/0600Z 51.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER PASCH

The 11 pm update. HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952 MB...BUT THE MAXIMUM WIND REPORTED SO FAR WAS 99 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 105 KNOTS. I WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO FINISH SAMPLING THE HURRICANE BEFORE REDUCING THE WINDS A LITTLE BIT...IF NECESSARY. BY INSPECTING AN EARLIER TRMM PASS FROM 2216 UTC...AND AND SSMIS AT 0024 UTC...ONE CAN OBSERVE CONCENTRIC CONVECTIVE RINGS SUGGESTING THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS OCCURRING. THESE TWO EYEWALLS WERE ALSO REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THIS EYEWALL CYCLE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE TREND IS FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS....IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT MOVES NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER SOME OF THE BAHAMAS RESULTING IS SOME WOBBLING. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS MATERIALIZING AS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE IRENE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE...AND PERHAPS THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS SHIFTED 30 N MI TO THE WEST...TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION DURING THE LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS DOES NOT RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. BECAUSE IRENE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 23.8N 75.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.3W 115 KT 135 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 31.5N 77.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 36.0N 75.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 42.5N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 50.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA

The 5 p.m update and Irene is going to intensify again. It's going to be a CAT 4 hurricane, but will cross Cape Haterras (mid Saturday afternoon) as a lower level CAT 3. It looks like a CAT 2 approaching Long Island (later Sunday afternoon) and a bit lower as it nears Boston/Cape Cod. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED NEAR THE EYEWALL AND NOW SOLIDLY SURROUNDS THE EYE. BEFORE DEPARTING IRENE...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 116 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 954 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UW-CIMMS OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO PREDICT A HIGH CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN FACT...A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL. THESE EYEWALL CYCLES CAN PRODUCE HARD TO PREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. IN 3-4 DAYS....INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT NEARS NEW ENGLAND. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/10 KT. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IRENE TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT TIME. THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH... WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 23.1N 74.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 24.3N 75.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 26.1N 76.8W 115 KT 135 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.3W 115 KT 135 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 30.1N 77.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 34.3N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 39.5N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 47.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Here is the 11 p.m. update for Irene. The 5 day forecast continues to move a bit to the east every three hour forecast, at least over the last 24 hours. Cape Hatteras is in Irene's sights, as well as the Atlantic Coast of New Jersey, and Long Island. The NOAA forecast is to the west of a number of the computer models, so there is a potential for it to miss a lot of the coast. Down the road, there may be very strong winds, rain, and flooding that could affect New York, Boston, Maine and New Brunswick. Some of you might get lucky with it just staying far enough off shore. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 IT IS FORTUNATE THAT WE HAVE A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IRENE AND TWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ONE FROM NOAA AND THE OTHER FROM THE AIR FORCE...IN THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE TONIGHT. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH A RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE INCREASE OF BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM BOTH PLANES HAS COME DOWN TO 969 MB AND THE MAX FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED WAS 101 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE SFMR INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 80 KNOTS. IRENE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS AND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THE OVERALL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN ABOUT A DAY. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOW PACE OF 8 KNOTS. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN...THERE IS NO REASON TO MODIFY THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD PARALLELING THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST AND VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT AND EVEN THE STUBBORN GFDL WHICH PREVIOUSLY INSISTED ON BRINGING IRENE TOWARD FLORIDA HAS NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST EVEN MORE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 21.3N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 22.0N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 31.0N 77.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 40.5N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA

It looks like an eye is trying to form for Irene. This image of Irene gives you an idea why they say you don't want to be on the northeast side of a hurricane when it hits. All of its natural energy is to the right and that area takes the strongest hit. The hurricane sucks up water/energy on its left side and then it is dispersed on the right with all of its power. It also explains why when hurricanes hit land they lose a lot of their energy because most of the land in the U.S. is too the left of the hurricane and it no longer feeds the hurricane the further it gets inland.

The next two storms off the coast of Africa look like they are headed out to the North Atlantic like most of last year. A well deserved break after Irene for at least two weeks.

The 11 a.m update with a slightly reduced intensity predicted. Now Irene will "only" be a CAT 3 hurricane. For those in the Baltimore/Washington area, the current projection has Irene still as a hurricane (CAT 1) as it hits Chesapeake Bay because there is no major landmass to take away its energy from the Atlantic Ocean. Keep an eye on this girl, by Thursday you should have a very good idea what is coming your way. HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A HINT OF AN EYE... WHILE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW AN EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TO THE SOUTH. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE 77 AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS MORNING HAD ISSUES WITH THE ON-BOARD RADAR. THIS REQUIRED A CHANGE IN AIRCRAFT AND THE NEW PLANE JUST PASSED THROUGH THE CENTER...REPORTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB...ABOUT THE SAME AS DURING THE PREVIOUS MISSION. A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IRENE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES BY DAY THREE...RANGING FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO WELL OFFSHORE...WITH THE UKMET ALONG THE LEFT SIDE AND THE GFS/NOGAPS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE UPDATED TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 20.5N 71.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 21.3N 72.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 22.3N 73.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 23.6N 75.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 25.3N 76.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 29.2N 77.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 33.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 37.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BROWN

No real changes for the 5 a.m. update, except for a small shift to the right when it gets towards North Carolina. That puts it in direct line to Wilmington and possibly the barrier islands along the North Carolina Coast. A number of the computer forecsts have it going a bit more to the right and clipping the barrier islands, so it's time to start making plans if you live along the North Carolina coast.

The 11 pm update, check out the new maximum speed for the winds. 135 mph makes Irene a low CAT 4 and the potential for a higher tidal surge a greater concern. HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 AFTER DEEPENING QUICKLY EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE INTENSITY OF IRENE APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 980 MB ...AND MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SINCE THE EARLIER MAXIMUM OF 106 KT AT 850 MB. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. OVERALL THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE... WITH A LARGE CDO FORMING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTING A CLOSED EYEWALL. SOUTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 KT IS PRESENT OVER IRENE ACCORDING TO SATELLITE ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS AND REACHING A PEAK OF 115 KT IN 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS AFTER THAT TIME. AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THAT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/10. OVERALL THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED...AS IRENE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED EAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL LIFT OUT WITHIN 24 HOURS...LEAVING A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 2 AND 3. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK OF IRENE APPEARS TO BE SENSITIVE TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN HOW MUCH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WILL BE CRITICAL TO HOW SOON IRENE TURNS NORTHWARD OR EVEN EAST OF DUE NORTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. OVERALL...THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE SLIGHT RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION AND A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS RESULTS IN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE AT DAY 5. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES... RESPECTIVELY. OF NOTE...SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE C-130 AIRCRAFT PROVIDED NUMEROUS DROPSONDES FOR ASSIMILATION INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE THE ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF IRENE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 19.9N 69.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 20.4N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 21.1N 72.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 22.2N 74.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 23.5N 75.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W 115 KT 135 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 30.0N 79.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 33.5N 78.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Too hard to predict where it will hit in 5 days time, but the last major hurricane to hit your area was Isabel. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Isabel_in_Maryland_and_Washington,_D.C. Isabel calmed down to a tropical storm once it proceeded inland and then headed north towards Toronto. Isabel created a lot of damage, but that was due to the storm surge (a CAT 5 hurricane that hit the continental shelf and it had hurricane force winds 115 miles from the eye. That combination will produce a much larger storm surge than normal when that combination occurs, Isabel, Hazel, Galveston and Katrina would be good example. Irene, at least at the moment is not projected to reach that level, so the surge should be less. As for the Washington area, expect winds, rain and some flooding. Most depressions start to pick up speed as they go inland and unless stopped by mountains where they dump most of the rain they have left, pick up speed and cause less damage. Of course there are exceptions like Hazel, that did a lot of damage as far away as Toronto. There are reasons why individuals should never buy the house with the lowest elevation on the street unless they want to tempt fate and wet basements.

Irene has intensified and is now projected to be a strong CAT 3 hurricane in the next 24 hours. No change in the projection, but those of you who live near the coast in close to the South - North Carolina border, might want to start preparing, boarding up and getting to higher ground if required. Here are links to interesting articles comparing storm surges and why Katrina was more devasting than Camile. Both were CAT 5 hurricanes in the Gulf and Katrina hit as a CAT 3 but it's large eye and overall width produced four times the water than Camile. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_details.asp http://www.hurricanescience.org/society/impacts/stormsurge/ HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 106 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF IRENE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 85 KT. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH NO EYE IS VISIBLE YET IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR AND WAS ALSO SEEN IN A 2230 UTC SSMIS PASS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION OF 982 MB WITH 10 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY 15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A SMALLER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AT 48 AND 72 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0030Z 19.7N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

The 11 am update and it's now predicted to reach 115 mph, so that would make it a low level CAT 3 hurricane. 000 WTNT44 KNHC 221504 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LAST CENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN FACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING A LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE... THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA. DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 19.2N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 19.9N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 20.5N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 28.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA The latest projected forecast for landfall a bit further north towards Charlestown, S.C. from the previous Savanah, which means it misses more of the east coast of Florida. A number of the models have it hitting between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, near Oak Island, N.C.

The latest update on Irene which is going to be stronger than first projected. The east coast of Florida will get buzzed, but landfall is between the Florida Georgia border and North Carolina. Instead of heading straight towards one landing spot, Irene is going to run parallel to the coast until it runs out of land. It will also be able to continue to keep itself going with the warm water from the Gulf Stream and as a result it is sheduled to continue as a hurricane until it hits land on the east coast. The current estimate of wind speed just before it hits land will be 110 mph, but this is a conservative estimate that may strengthen if Irene doesn't interact too much with the mountains in Hispaniola. HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011 IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST 65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE ALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE DATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OFF THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND JUST SKIRTING THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW LARGE A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT 72 HOUR AND BEYOND...WHICH WILL ALLOW IRENE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFS AND THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND TAKE IRENE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW OF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND BEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA. IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT 1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES... RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 18.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 18.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 19.7N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 20.4N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 24/0600Z 21.3N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 24.0N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 30.9N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART

As for those of you in the Gulf, you might not want a hurricane heading in there right now with these water temperatures. It would only intensify greatly once it hit this very warm water. The only saving grace is there is no 89 degree trough leading right to Louisiana like their was just before Katrina.