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The 8 a.m. update. Daniel will give Bermuda a lot of rain and high winds, but is scheduled to pass anywhere from twenty to two hundred and fifty miles to the east of the islands. The winds they get hit with will depend on how far to the east Danielle tracks. "Earl" looks like it's developing into a tropical storm and will become a numbered tropical depression later this morning and likely get it's official name soon. Another storm is 250 miles behind it. It looks like the hurricane season is officially here. 1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 2. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010 CORRECTED 70 KT TO 75 KT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AN AMSR-E PASS FROM 0516 UTC SUGGESTS AN EYE WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL. CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TO THE NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IMPARTING MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON DANIELLE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY. BOTH OF THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR SO THE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 300/15. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY SOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL. A SHORT WAVE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD TEMPORARILY HALT A FURTHER TURN TO THE RIGHT...UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST. LATER ON...A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS DANIELLE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER... SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 18.8N 51.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 20.1N 52.7W 70 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 21.8N 54.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 23.3N 56.3W 75 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 58.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 61.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 30.0N 62.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W 85 KT

An avn image from NOAA of both storms.

The 5 a.m. update on Danielle and the future Earl. Danielle has intensified a bit, but the path remains consistent. HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE AT 77 AND 90 KT... RESPECTIVELY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN PULSATING FOR REASONS THAT ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS INDICATIVE OF A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION. UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS LESS DEFINED TO THE WEST. BASED UPON THE HIGHER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. AN EYE FEATURE THAT FORMED EARLIER IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...BUT A 0434 UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER. THAT OVERPASS AND OTHER RECENT FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...280/17. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WHEN IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 45-50W. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED BY 48 HOURS WHEN A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO DECELERATE AND TURN NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE REMAINING IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-29C. THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A 35% CHANCE OF AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD HALT THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION OR POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT REDUCTION IN SHEAR...BUT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW RESTRENGTHENING IN 3-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 15.9N 44.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 16.9N 46.6W 95 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 18.6N 48.9W 105 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 20.5N 51.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 52.9W 100 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 55.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 28.0N 57.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 59.0W 95 KT 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Danielle is intensifing rapidly towards 100 knots/hour, but is still on the same path out to sea. Disturbance 1, the one behind Danielle has become better organized and is likely to become Earl in the next couple of days. 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

The 2 p.m. report. Danielle remains the same, but the one right behind is gaining intensity. 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

The 11 am report. Similar path as previously forcasted. Danielle is going to get stronger over the next few days, but will be blocked from getting to the U.S. by a subtropical ridge. This will force it northward. The next storm has left the coast of Africa and is now just showing as a 10% chance in the next 48 hours. Of course, it has the potential to become larger and more powerful over the week. AT 1028 UTC...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT DANIELLE WAS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING... AND CURVED BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/14. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 45W SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF DANIELLE AND FORCE IT TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NEEDED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE HELP OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN WATERS. AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS NOW SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS BUT THEN VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS CURRENTLY NEAR 40 PERCENT...SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT DANIELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AS DANIELLE APPROACHES A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SO FOR NOW THE INTENSITY IS HELD NEAR THE LOWER END OF CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH. THERE IS NOW A 1 IN 4 CHANCE...HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...THAT DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS BASED ON HISTORICAL NHC INTENSITY ERRORS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 15.1N 39.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 16.0N 41.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 17.3N 44.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 18.9N 47.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 20.8N 49.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 53.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 27.0N 55.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 29.5N 57.0W 90 KT

It's now called Danielle. The 5 p.m. report follows. It intensifies on Day 3 at which point it's approaching 20 degrees N latitude. It then starts to head further northwest until it hits 60 degress W and then it heads north. In other words, still out to sea, so to speak. An 85 knot hurricane is significant, but when it misses land, including Bermuda, do many people really care? When three in one year hit the Port St. Lucie/Stuart, Florida area, there is a significant problem as Marshall has outlined in past years. The roofs gave way because the hurricanes were very slow moving and the rain did more damage than just the winds. The roofs couldn't take that amount of rain with the winds. I still can't believe the odds that one spot could get hit that often in one year. TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010 STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR -85C...HAVE RECENTLY FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BOTH 2.5...35 KT...AND THE MOST RECENT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.7. THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF DANIELLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. HOWEVER... RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 3 COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A NEW RIDGE TO ITS NORTH ON DAY 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT IT CONVERGES BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN IS EXTREMELY CLOSE TO OFCI. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY 3...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 13.4N 35.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 14.0N 36.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 14.9N 39.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 42.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.3N 44.9W 60 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 23.0N 54.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 25.5N 57.0W 85 KT

The 11 a.m update. A touch less organized and still predicted to go into the North Atlantic, although there is a projection that it could come close to Virginia or Deleware. There is another mass of clouds about 500 miles behind Storm #6 which will justify watching as it is now leaving the coast of Africa. It's westwardly edge and the east edge of six are touching . TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 22 2010 THE UPWARD TREND IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...BUT THE CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DUE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 350 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS ALSO CAUSED THE CENTER TO MOVE ALMOST DUE NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PULLING IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN 1134 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. WITH THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 310/10. ONCE THE DEPRESSION ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 26N SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT RECURVATURE. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL ...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THEREAFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A SLOWER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS STILL HIGHER THAN EVERY INTENSITY MODEL AT DAY 5 EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. BASED ON AN EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT NHC...THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS A 1 IN 5 CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 12.7N 34.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 13.0N 35.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 13.8N 38.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 14.7N 40.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 43.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 49.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 53.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 24.5N 56.0W 85 KT

The projection models.

Tropical Storm 6 formed out in the Atlantic, but it's following the same path as a few others. There must be some sort of Star Wars barrier out there that keeps deflecting the storms into the North Atlantic. The biggest difference so far is this storm may produce 95 knot winds, definitely a hurricane. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS....THOUGH IT IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A LONG CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 25 KT...WHICH AGREES WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB OF T1.5...25 KT...AND A 25 KT ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS...AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY THAT TIME...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM WITH ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE MAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...SHOWING A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG OUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS. THESE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.0N 32.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 33.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 35.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W 95 KT

The 8 p.m. report. Not jumping at being organized yet, but the path is good for further development. Still a long way out! The other storm is heading into Mexico near Tampico. 2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

The 8 a.m. update. Storm one is being hit by Belize and is not much of anything at the moment. Storm 2 is worth watching. It's holding the southern path and becoming a bit better organized. 1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

The 2 p.m. image. Number 1 will take a kicking when it hits land in Nicaragua and the Yucatan. It may still gain something if it hits the gulf, but most likely a good wind storm with of course rain. Of course the heat and humidity that goes with it so you want to have air conditioning. Storm 2 is disorganized at the moment, but there's a lot of cloud circulation which could link up together to produce an early September storm/hurricane. I will have to remember in the future to check the distances between tropical storms/hurricanes. This year it seems to be about 1000 miles which is almost 2 weeks. It seems to be a wider gap than some years, but then again maybe it's just my imagination. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Tropical Storm 5 is still dropping rain from Galveston to New Orleans, but is no longer a storm. The next potential one has been identified, but it's moving very slowly at the moment. A lot of cloud coming off of Africa, but none of it is looking very organized at the moment, but it's still 1000 miles behind #1. So far most of the potential storms have had a hard time staying organzed after they leave the coast of Africa. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

The 8 a.m. discussion on the last of tropical storm 5. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE... HAS MOVED INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED NOW THAT THE LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE. THERE IS LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST TODAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

Current projection model, quite similar to what you got the first time. [8-)]

2 p.m. update on Tropical Storm 5: 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

8 a.m update for those of you on the Gulf Coast. Lots of rain and I'm guessing heat as well. 800 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

The 8 p.m update. 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 MPH...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

Tropical Depression 5 has decided it left the party too early and wants another chance to make a better impression. Oh joy! Probably not a major problem, but the gulf area is going to get more rainfall for several days. 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY MONDAY WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Not good for me by any way shape or form, but better than 135 kts and a tidal surge. Glad it bailed out before it hit you.

Every potential storm seems to have stopped and for the short term, even what's comming off of Africa looks very disorganized. Be greatful for the good weather.

Dtel, the good news is Number 5 is now dissipated. In other words, just rain, but no high winds. Now under 25 knots and it may decrease. Hard to say about the next storms, they appear to be a bit further north than some, which may then more likely to hit the Carolinas than the Gulf. We will see. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010 400 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010 SATELLITE...BUOY...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH A LARGE...BROAD... AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION REMAINS...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 28.3N 87.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Storm 5 is moving a bit faster according to the 11 am posting and is now projected to have maximum winds of 35 knots, down from the earlier 45 knots. It's projected landing is the same, although it may go slightly to the east when it nears landfall. The other two systems haven't changed in their status.

Tropical depression may increase to 45 knots before it hits just east of New Orleans. The path seems to have shifted a bit more to the east than what was posted yesterday. As per always, just because they suggest the storm will hit point A doesn't mean that it might not hit point A plus or minus a hundred miles east or west. Storm 1 is soon going to be heading almost straight north, so it's not an issue. Storm 2 isn't showing a lot of organization, but it's getting close to hitting the warmer waters of the Caribbean Sea. The one behind it already is showing signs of organization. They seem to be forming up with about a 1000 miles between each one. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010 500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED ITS ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CONVECTION HAS ERODED CONSIDERABLY...AS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO COOL DOWNDRAFTS CAUSED BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT BASED ON SURFACE OBS OF 25-27 KT IN SOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF 25 KT MEASURED BY THE RECON AIR AIRCRAFT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/09 DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE SURFACE CENTER. DESPITE THE DISRUPTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS WELL DEFINED FROM 850 MB THROUGH AT LEAST 400 MB. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TD-5 MOVING NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS LACKING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY AFTER THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS RECOVERED. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER THAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY..DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY 36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND 968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 27.7N 86.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 28.7N 88.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 29.5N 89.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 30.3N 89.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 15/0600Z 33.5N 87.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART