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For storm 5, the following: 730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS JUST COMPLETED ITS RECONNAISSANCE MISSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEY CONFIRMED THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION WAS PRESENT...AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL SOLUTION SHOWS MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS AT TIMES. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL A BIT BROAD...THE INITIAL MOTION... 315/05...IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD PRODUCE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED SO CLOSE TO THE TIME OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT 0300 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2330Z 26.0N 84.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 26.8N 85.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 28.1N 87.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 29.7N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 90.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW The good news is it's only going to get to 40 knots, with a lot of rain, or course. The other two systems haven't changed much due to their location, one going out to sea and the other still a long way out. It's still scary that Africa keeps kicking out systems 250- 400 miles apart that could be the next big hurricane. It's been pretty quiet so far, but if you take a look at what Marshall has posted or take a look at Stormpulse.com, you can see what is forming and a potential hurricane.

The 2:00 update. Please note that the storm #3 is starting to develop and keep an eye on the two directly behind. There is another one forming up nicely in Africa (Nigeria). Labour Day is getting closer. 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 2. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS HAS INCREASED A LITTLE TODAY...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT THAT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST FORMATION. THERE IS STILL A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. 3. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. The good news is it might become a tropical storm given it's slow pace across the gulf. In a maximum case possibility, it might reach a level 1 hurricane. Likely to bring a lot of rain and given it's slow pace it will be a pain in the rear, or is that roofs.

The lastest image. Colin is winding down and may peter out soon. There is another system close to Florida, but only a 10% chance it will strengthen. There is another smaller system southeast of #1, although it's weekly organized. There are three possibilities in Africa, but they sometimes change a fair bit when they hit the Atlantic. They either become disorganized or form a tighter formation and become potential hurricanes. 200 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES WEST OF BERMUDA. 1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 2. A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN Colin: ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING...THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO TAKE A TOLL ON COLIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS COLIN AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION UNTIL DISSIPATION. IF THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO ELONGATE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COLIN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. 30 KTS over the next 72 hours.

The second storm out in the Atlantic has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm, but it's path is already north and east of Colin's path, so it will stay out in the Atlantic and not bother the US. There looks like a smaller one below storm one and three developing waves over Africa. These are crossing the Atlantic in a more southerly path than Colin. The good news is that you likely have a week to a week and a half without having to worry about hurricanes.

Cokin has moved further to the north and east, not threatening the US. The next storm also seems to be taking a path to the northeast Atlantic. Good news so far, but.. they do keep forming up over the Sahara Desert. I don't remember seeing such images as clearly in past years. This may not necessarily be a good thing. Tropical storms appear a lot earlier than before. The good news is residents can evcacuate a lot earlier, or decide to stay and bear it out? 800 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. 1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOR EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Colin willing to dropping rain on Bermuda as it heads right over it. Otherwise, it's moved a bit to the east from the previous path. 500 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010 CORRECTED FOR 120 HOUR FORECAST STATUS IN TABLE DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT COLIN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE THE SURFACE CENTER DISPLACED NORTH OF THE 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER FIX. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 36 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD GENEROUSLY AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...ASSUMING SOME HIGHER WINDS REMAIN IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYZES ONLY ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR OVER COLIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. SHIPS SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS COLIN WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AND COLIN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH ICON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT COLIN HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/04. COLIN APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON COLIN ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE EAST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS COLIN IS CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION...BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BEYOND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 29.1N 66.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 30.4N 66.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 32.3N 65.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 34.8N 63.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 37.8N 61.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 54.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 51.5N 43.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN The next storm is still progressing westward, although it seems to be swinging a bit to the north already. 800 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. 1. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Colin is still active and forcasted to miss the coast, although St. Pierre and Migelon, and St. John's Newfoundland may get the worst of it. Danielle is the name of the next tropical storm and # 1 has potential, although it's initial path is also out to the North Atlantic. Don't worry, there are more to come. 800 AM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 500 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 25 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL...HAS AGAIN TAKEN A TOLL ON COLIN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE PULSING DEEP CONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0118 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL 35-40 KT RETRIEVALS EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT IN 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD GIVE COLIN AN OPPORTUNITY TO RE-INTENSIFY. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AGAIN BY 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARD THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AFTER THAT. THE 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/12...TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. COLIN IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ANCHORED BY ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 27N 75W AND ANOTHER NEAR BERMUDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE LOWS WILL MOVE AWAY AND ALLOW COLIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER SPEED INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN COLIN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE TROUGH VARIES WIDELY IN THE GUIDANCE...AND SO DOES THE FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL MOVE COLIN MORE SLOWLY AND DELAY INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAY 4...WHILE THE UKMET... NOGAPS...AND HWRF TAKE COLIN MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH ABOUT A DAY EARLIER. GIVEN THAT THE 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS FROM THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE ABOUT 1000 MILES APART...THIS TRACK FORECAST HAS LOW CONFIDENCE... ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. ONE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT IF COLIN REMAINS A SHALLOW SYSTEM WITHOUT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND MORE SLOWLY IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 26.8N 67.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 27.9N 67.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 29.8N 67.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 31.5N 66.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 33.6N 65.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 38.5N 62.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 56.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 50.5N 45.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Colin is back, but it's mostly going north. Lots of clouds off of Africa, but they are a bit disorganized at the moment, but that doesn't mean that they can't reform into something more substantial. 730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010 ...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO PRIMARILY UPDATE THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS. SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM COLIN REPORTED A 600-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT ABOUT 14 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1005 MB WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THESE VALUES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MESOVORTEX LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD. FOR THIS REASON...THE INTENSITY WAS INITIALIZED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH NEARBY SFMR WINDS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT RECON REPORT...DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF COLIN HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH JUSTIFIES INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS. SINCE A FORECAST INTENSITY OF 50 KT WAS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL 48 HOURS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS REQUIRED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES AN EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS NECESSARY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING WERE MADE. INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2330Z 25.6N 66.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W 55 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN

Colin looks like it's reforming, but I haven't seen any of the current tracking. It appears to be following the same route as projected earlier, or at least close to it. Hopefully it will turn out to see, but it may leave some rain on the coast of North Carolina. Keep an eye on what is following behind as they are further to the south and look like they might produce something. 200 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE WHETHER IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Colin may be reforming and it's slowed down it's forward speed a bit, although it's still moving very quickly for hurricane formation. A tropical storm is quite possible. 800 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

200 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Colin is trying to make itself a bit stronger. 800 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BUT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE WAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Nothing has changed at the moment. Not visible on the National Hurricane Center, but visible on Stormpulse.com (turn the cloud option on), there is a weakly formed circulation just north and east of Cape Verde. There is another closely grouped clouds just to the west of it. Worth keeping an eye on as mid August approaches. 200 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. 2. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Colin appears to have lost it's strength. 200 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. 2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Colin is winding down a bit, although the projections have it still close enough to the coast. Not likely to be anything major, but there is some discussion as to what it becomes as it passes west of Bermuda. The other system is likely to produce some rain, but it's southern edge keeps going over land, so it will have difficulty intensifing. 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN WHICH HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF COLIN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. 1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

Colin is not as organized this morning and the wind speeds have been decreased. Colin is tracking a bit further to the west than before, but still projected to be off the North Carolina coast.There is another small system, off of the coast of Venezuela which has a 20% chance of producing a more tropical storm. Behind Colin, there continues to be a continual series of waves. 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010 COLIN HAS A VERY RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING A SMALL CONVECTIVE MASS NEAR THE CENTER AND A SECOND CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTH. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT IS HARD TO FIND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COLIN STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE EVEN FASTER. COLIN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/ MID-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH...AND IN 48-72 HR SHOULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE HIGH CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD INITIALLY STEER COLIN RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 48 HR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACKS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST AN EAST OF NORTH MOTION ON THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY 120 HR...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFDN ARE ON THE LEFT EDGE WITH NO NORTHWARD TURN BEFORE 120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED 60-90 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CURRENTLY...COLIN IS EXPERIENCING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY CAUSED BY THE LOWER PART OF THE STORM OUTRUNNING THE UPPER PART. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR DUE TO THE RAPID MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CAUSED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND THE ONLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT CURRENTLY CALLS FOR COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLIMATOLOGY/ PERSISTENCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT COLIN COULD DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN WAVE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ITS RAPID MOTION AND WESTERLY SHEAR. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.2N 49.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 52.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 16.5N 56.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 18.3N 60.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 20.2N 63.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 67.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 26.5N 69.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 70.5W 50 KT

Hurricane Colin. TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CURVED BAND WRAPPING HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORTING A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. COLIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...WITH MODERATE TO WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY THEREAFTER. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL FORECAST AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL OR STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS COLIN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 285/20. AT THIS TIME...THE STEERING FOR COLIN IS BEING PROVIDED DUE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLY JET. THIS RELATIVELY FAST STEERING CURRENT SHOULD MORE OR LESS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT ALONG WITH A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT FORECAST TIME...THE MODELS BECOME MODERATELY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041 OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC INDICATE THAT COLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...AND THE WIND RADII SHOWN IN THE ADVISORY MIGHT BE GENEROUS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. AT THIS TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...WIND FIELD...AND REASONABLE UNCERTAINTIES...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 14.0N 47.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 15.1N 50.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 54.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 18.6N 58.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.6N 61.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 24.5N 66.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 68.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 31.0N 69.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

11 pm update 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE BANDING FEATURES ARE SEEN AND THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB. NOAA BUOY 41041 HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 25 KT ABOUT 70 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS EVENING WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/20. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER RANGE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD MUCH EARLIER...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ALTHOUGH THE TVCN CONSENSUS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY EASTWARD THIS CYCLE...WE PREFER TO KEEP THE TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AT THAT TIME. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING. IN 36-48 HOURS... SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.6N 45.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.6N 48.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 52.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.7N 56.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 19.6N 59.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 23.5N 65.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 27.0N 68.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 31.0N 69.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

The latest forecast. 500 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHARPLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE EAST...BUT HAS BEEN IMPROVING AND BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL IN THE REMAINING QUADRANTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14. DESPITE THEIR POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION AT 12Z...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXCEEDING 20 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS TAKING A VERY WEAK CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHEREAS THE HWRF...GFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS FAVOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL HAVE MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WHICH ERODES THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE LESS AMPLITUDE AND MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT 5-WAVE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...MY FEELING IS THAT SUCH SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN 36 HOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SMALL ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE. BY 48-60 HOURS...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN WEAKENING OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THESE HIGH SHEAR VALUES MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE THE GFS HAVING MUCH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AND ALSO DUE TO 500 KM RADIUS THAT THE SHIPS USES IN COMPUTING SHEAR VALUES. IF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RATHER THAN OUTRUNNING IT ...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL END UP STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.0N 42.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.8N 45.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 15.2N 49.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 54.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 18.5N 57.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 64.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 26.0N 67.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 69.5W 50 KT

It is now Tropical storm 4. The path will have it miss the US at the moment. 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010 DATA FROM AN 1148 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS MOVING RATHER BRISKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVEN FASTER MOTION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION IS STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND THE HWRF AND ECMWF FARTHER RIGHT SHOWING MORE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. IT IS WORTH REMINDING USERS THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS 250 TO 300 MILES. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT TIME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AROUND 65W. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK IN INTENSITY AROUND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT COULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH SUCH A FAST FORWARD SPEED...AND COULD OPEN BACK UP INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 12.6N 41.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 44.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.8N 48.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 16.4N 53.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.4N 57.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.0N 63.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 66.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 68.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

The current projections have this burning out in the North Atlantic 200 + miles off the North Carolina coast. 800 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE... 90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED... AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

90% chance that this one will become a tropical storm or more. The current models have it kicking up into the North Atlantic and missing everything except maybe Bermuda. The air mass off the eastern seaboard seems to be pushing this one further up the Atlantic Coast and out to sea. Good news at the moment. 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

I've mentioned this site in past years, but, http://www.stormpulse.com/ is interesting if you select forecast modes and clouds on the right hand side. The clouds are there as well as the physical landmasses, deep spots in the Gulf of Mexico and all of the banks (shallower areas that are good for deep sea fishing) around the US. It shows you the potential systems in Africa and what may be coming next. You can see another storm right behind the future Colin and some other potentials forming up in Mali and Nigeria. Just a guess, but the storms over Nigeria would be closer to three weeks away depending on how fast they move.

This one is starting to look like it will be Colin. It's moving slowly which gives it a lot of opportunity to get organized and pick up more moisture. Still well over a week away, but... it's August. What I find useful is that hurricanes or at least there initial status can be tracked so much earlier today than every before. The latest update. 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN