Dflip

Here's another interesting file, animation. http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs_caribbean.html The link allows you to see the hurricane moving and the changes in pressure from a storm to a hurricane.

The latest on Irene. It will be a hurricane as it approaches Florida, but just, 75 mph. There is a wide variance in the projections for where, or if it crosses Florida, so beware. Many of the projections have it going up the eastern coast where it will be able to continue to feed itself with waters from the Atlantic. TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE STORM STILL LACKS MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...OR STRONG WINDS...OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT SO FAR...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY AND IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES HISPANIOLA. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO MORE THAN THE USUAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...AS IT DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER MOVES MORE OVER THE WATER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IRENE WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/17...BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES IRENE TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TAKES IT THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN FLORIDA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 18.9N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 19.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/1200Z 24.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 27.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH

The first advisory for Irene. So far it's projected to reach Florida just short of a Cat 1 hurricane. A lot will depend on how much Haiti and Cuba take out of it. Storm 98 which is following Irene is projected to go out to sea (North Atlantic) as with many of the storms last year and this year. TROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOUND A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB. THE PLANE ALSO MEASURED A MAXIMUM WIND OF 53 KT AT 1400 FT AND BELIEVABLE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT FROM THE SFMR. THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM IRENE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/19. A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO STEER IRENE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THAT TIME AND CAUSE IRENE TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK GENERALLY IN THE DIRECTION OF HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THEREAFTER...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THIS COULD ALLOW IRENE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS TO BRING THE STORM NORTH OF CUBA...WHILE THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN HAVE ENOUGH RIDGING IN PLACE TO KEEP THE STORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NHC FORECAST WILL SPLIT THOSE TWO IDEAS AND LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL VORTEX IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IRENE IS MOVING OVER RATHER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR EXPECTED. MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING HISPANIOLA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND IS RATHER CHALLENGING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF RE-INTENSIFICATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF IRENE AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. NOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD 800 PM AST/0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE THE FULL ADVISORY PACKAGE ISSUED AT 1100 PM AST/0300 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2300Z 14.9N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 15.4N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 16.1N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 16.7N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 17.5N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 21.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 24.0N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

Marshall, I agree. The first two storms are turning out to sea and will end up in the middle of the Atlantic. The second storm is heading to the bigger islands and the forecasts have it either going north or south of them. So far it looks like it will cause problems for someone, not sure if it's you or our friends on the Gulf Coast? Of course, the next question is how strong are the winds associated with it? It's still a week away or more, but it's worth keeping an eye on until we know some more information. We are now approaching the middle of August and from now until mid September, it's prime hurricane season.

There are a couple of storms forming up in the Atlantic, Initial paths for the first storm, 92: The projections for the second storm, 93:

The insertion cuts and filling them with garlic works very well, but it does work a lot better with lamb. [] Some lemon juice drizzled onto the lamb leg followed by salt, pepper and rosemary produces an excellent Greek style lamb which is heavenly. Just don't overcook the lamb; 140 F is the maximum it should be cooked. Get fresh American lamb if possible followed by New Zealand and then Australian based on mildest to gamiest taste. If you want to marinate chops, check out Sheep's Dip at Amazing Ribs! I have this weekly with fresh Ontario lamb which is grain fed the last 30 days, while the other two lambs are grass fed right up to slaugher. I loved the idea of brown sugar and apples with the pork loin. You can roll it as well if you cut the apples into smaller pieces. Some dried cranberries or cran-cherries which have been rehydrated might also add a nice contrast to the apples and brown sugar. Cherries and pork complement each other very nicely. I like the smoke ring you have around the outside of the pork loin. It's amazing what a little mirepoix (fried onions, carrots and celery) with whatever else you add to it adds flavour,moisture and taste to the pork.Choose your woods to smoke with, cherry, apple, hickory and enjoy. Here is a list of woods to smoke with and what they are good with: ALDER - Very delicate with a hint of sweetness. Good with fish, pork, poultry, and light-meat game birds. APPLE - Very mild with a subtle fruity flavor, slightly sweet. Good with poultry (turns skin dark brown) and pork. ASH - Fast burner, light but distinctive flavor. Good with fish and red meats. BIRCH - Medium-hard wood with a flavor similar to maple. Good with pork and poultry. CHERRY - Mild and fruity. Good with poultry, pork and beef. Some List members say the cherry wood is the best wood for smoking. Wood from chokecherry trees may produce a bitter flavor. CRABAPPLE - Similar to apple wood. GRAPEVINES - Tart. Provides a lot of smoke. Rich and fruity. Good with poultry, red meats, game and lamb. HICKORY - Most commonly used wood for smoking--the King of smoking woods. Sweet to strong, heavy bacon flavor. Good with pork, ham and beef. LILAC - Very light, subtle with a hint of floral. Good with seafood and lamb. MAPLE - Smoky, mellow and slightly sweet. Good with pork, poultry, cheese, and small game birds. MESQUITE - Strong earthy flavor. Good with beef, fish, chicken, and game. One of the hottest burning. OAK - Heavy smoke flavor--the Queen of smoking wood. RED OAK is good on ribs, WHITE OAK makes the best coals for longer burning. All oak varieties reported as suitable for smoking. Good with red meat, pork, fish and heavy game. PEAR - A nice subtle smoke flavor. Much like apple. Excellent with chicken and pork. PECAN - Sweet and mild with a flavor similar to hickory. Tasty with a subtle character. Good with poultry, beef, pork and cheese. Pecan is an all-around superior smoking wood. SWEET FRUIT WOODS - APRICOT, PLUM, PEACH, NECTARINE - Great on most white or pink meats, including chicken, turkey, pork and fish. The flavor is milder and sweeter than hickory.

Dtel, here are a few links for you. I do this with stuffed pork tenderloins and stuffed pork roasts. I like to buy a pork rib roast and debone it myself, that way I get a roast to stuff and 6 or so spare ribs. [] I make a cut into the longer end usually about a third of the height of the deboned meat. When I get within 3/4 of an inch of the other end, I turn the roast over and cut back towards the part I just cut through. The goal is to cut the remaining piece in half and when you are done if will roll out like a jellyroll. The inside can be stuffed and then tied together as illustrated in the following videos and instructions. At this point it can either be smoked or cooked on the bbq or in the oven until it is ready. http://allrecipes.com/HowTo/tying-roasts/detail.aspx http://www.ehow.com/video_2336127_tie-up-pork-roast.html http://www.myrecipes.com/how-to/video/tying-stuffed-pork-roast-loin-10000001847834/

Emily has sort of reformed, at least as a tropical depression and may reach storm status out in the Atlantic. It's providing some rain to Florda, anywhere from 1 -3 inches depending on the exact location. The heaviest rain has been south of Fort Lauderdale, so it looks like Marshall will deal with some rain tonight, but not much else. I'm sure that will help him sleep better tonight. 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ALBEIT A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR...AND EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS...IF AT ALL...UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS OVER OPEN WATERS AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES. AFTER 36 HOURS...EMILY SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AND BE ABSORBED BY A MID- LATITUDE FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY. EMILY IS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA THROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS FORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 26.9N 78.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 27.9N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 29.9N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 31.6N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 33.6N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Emily may be no more, or it might become a storm again as it get closer to the Bahamas. REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011 SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

The latest forecast on Emily. It remains a bit unorganized and they're still not sure on the path, but it appears to be a "bit" further to the east as it approaches Florida. The Bahamas at the moment are the target that its going to approach early Friday night. The barrier islands in North Carolina could be on the edge of Emily when it hits hurricane strength. 500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011 DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT EMILY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...AND IT IS VERY WEAK ABOVE 700 MB. THE JET DATA INDICATED 300 MB WINDS BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 45 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAD TO ABORT ITS MISSION DUE TO AVIONICS PROBLEMS. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARD DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72 HR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA WILL EVOLVE INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH OF EMILY. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS YET ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE SHIPS... LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR DUE TO SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 HR SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

As Emily keeps changing, she is expected to develop into a hurricane off the coast of South and North Carolina. She might be projected to be a touch further offshore in Florida, but we are not talking a sizeable amount. 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN A CDO-LIKE PATTERN...HOWEVER A 2157 UTC SSMIS PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z...THAT THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY OVERNIGHT. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 12 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TILTED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE LOCATION OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN VELOCITY DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THAT TIME. IF EMILY SURVIVES ITS TRIP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF RE-INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW EMILY WILL FARE AFTER LAND INTERACTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK OF AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA. BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SSMIS PASS...THE CENTER IS ASSUMED TO BE WEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS... YIELDING AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/12...TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING EMILY TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5 AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD THE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN USUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH THE NEW TRACK FORECAST ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 16.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 17.0N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 20.2N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 05/0000Z 22.0N 74.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 26.0N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 29.5N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 33.0N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

This pretty much says it all.... Emily doesn't have a defined centre and they aren't really sure how strong or weak it will be, or where it might end up. The last projection has it now off the Florida coast and not a hurricane, but... 500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY... OBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS PROBLEMATIC. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. RADIOSONDE DATA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LEVEL. MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY. IN A FEW DAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM. SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14. THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO. AS A TROUGH JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A DEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE SHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 15.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 16.2N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.0N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.8N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH

We now have Emily and it is projected to be a hurricane before it hits Miami or north of there. AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. Emily is forcast to hit on Saturday afternoon, after 2:00 p.m. At the moment it looks like a hurricane that will hit the coast and then go out to see at some point. Hopefully it will continue to travel at 15 mph or faster.

The link I posted above is the evolving one, it changes over time, instead of the static ones I posted before. This morning, Florida looked like it might have some rain off the coast, six hours later it looks like it might be time to make preparations and get the necessary wood, food, water, etc... to get you though what might happen. At the moment its moving at 15 - 20 mph which is good news compared to Frances. I'm sure that the track will change a few more times in the next week before it hits Florida or hopefully not. 200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

The latest on Invest 91 (Emily). It's projections have it getting closer to Miami, but still off the coast in all but one of the projections. This will still lead to a good amount of rain, so it bares further monitoring. At present, the storm has a 90% of becoming a tropical storm. 800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF MARTINIQUE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Projections for storm 91 (Emily). A good chance that it will resemble a lot of last year and go out to sea in the Atlantic after hitting a few of the islands.

This pretty much says it all. Too bad you gentlemen didn't get any rain. We finally got some this week after almost no rain for three and a half weeks. 400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011 THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A RAINFALL THREAT. The one out in the Atlantic looks like it could become Emily. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. There are another two storms over Africa, one just about to leave the coast and another following behind.

The 8 p.m. warning on Don and its going to hit land sooner than expected. TROPICAL STORM DON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 700 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 ...CENTER OF DON ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST NEAR BAFFIN BAY...STRENGTHENING NO LONGER ANTICIPATED... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 97.1W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT OCONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TEXAS COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT OCONNOR FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST. DON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST NEAR BAFFIN BAY ON THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BUOY AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT DON HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL AND DON IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE AND TIDES WILL INCREASE WATER LEVELS AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE STORM TIDE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA The storm in the Atlantic is now a 50% chance. There are a few more systems forming up in Africa which is very typical for this time of year. All of them 5 - 7 days apart and subject to whatever winds or air masses are presently in North America.

The 5 p.m update for Don and it indicates that Don might be a touch less intense than the forecast at 11:00 a.m. today. It should be providing some rain to those of you east of where landfall is. Houston and Galveston are getting rain, but what's interesting is the intensity of the storm is to the the southwest, 210 degress, towards Brownville, Normally the worst side of a hurricane is the northeast quadrant? TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 400 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DON REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A DISORGANIZED MASS OF STRONG CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 46 KT WITH THE SFMR...BOTH IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER WIND DISPLAYS FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MESOCYCLONE IN A STRONG CONVECTIVE CELL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/14. DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI IN THE NEXT 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE 12 HR FORECAST POINT SHOWS WEAKENING...THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DON TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN THE FEW HOURS REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 48 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.9N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 27.5N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 28.2N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0600Z 28.8N 103.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

The 11 am update on Don indicates it will strength a bit more to approximately 60 mph winds and continue on the same path. It will not strengthen any more than that due to the very dry conditions to the north and west of Don. TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 1000 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DON HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH AN ELONGATED OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AND A STREAM OF ARC CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CYCLONE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS NEAR 1002 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/12. DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER LAND IN 36-48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. DON SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE SHEAR UNTIL THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN ABOUT 18 HR. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOW DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF DON. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPEDE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. DON SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON. ANY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 26.2N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.8N 96.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 27.7N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 28.3N 101.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN System 1 in the Atlantic now has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm. 1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

The 8 pm update, Don has shifted a bit to the west, but the projections haven't changed much. It should hit late Friday, early Saturday and the 40 - maybe 50 mph winds are what is predicted. The rainfall and storm surge are as predicted earlier and are posted above. Let the fun begin! There is another storm out there and the first of many. So far this year there isn't an upper atmosphere wind blowing everything out to the eastern Atlantic. AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DON HAS JOGGED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE STORM SHOULD RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...TONIGHT. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

The 2 pm update on Don: BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 100 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 ...CENTER OF DON NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 90.7W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST. DON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...23 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY....AND REACH THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. [] RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.

8 am update on Don, 40 mph storm at the moment: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM DON LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON DON ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Okay, they finally name a storm after me and it's going to be a little whimpering tropical storm? Tropical Storm Don has 35 mph winds and is travelling at 12 mph. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Dave: It looks like you are going to get something. The forecasts on Stormpulse show it anywhere from Brownsville to east of Galveston, although most projections are to the west of you. No information yet as to wind speed, but the hurricane hunter aircraft should have more information later today. The storm on the map you posted yesterday is now showing red. Since you copied the image from NOAA it will continue to change. If the image is first saved to your computer and then inserted into the text, then it will only show it's status at that particular time. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.