Dflip

L1V 2Y2 Pickering, Ontario

Well done and I'm impressed. The ones Tom did a "few years ago" and I painted had a black background with the exposed face being bronze/gold/etc... The black background with the gold/bronze foreground is very attractive. A very nice product and thank you for the effort.

Oscarsear: Here is what I've learned from a friend from South Carolina and I have done this myself for the staff at school and they haven't had anything better, but it is Ontario, Canada. The basic ideas seem to be pretty standard. I prepared my butt the night before cutting off as much fat as possible and slathering it with French's mustard and the sugar and spices I wanted. The ideal temperature for cooking ribs or pork butt is 225° F at grill level, but 250° F is okay if thats as low as you can go, especially with a gas bbq. Pork butts go up in temperature nicely until they hit 175° F. The collagen and fat start to break down at 167.5° F. When the temperature hits 175, the cooking stops for a while and may hold for 1 3 hours. The temperature will actually drop to about 155° F before it goes up again. It will rise quickly at this stage to 180° F. The butt is done at approximately 194 197°. To take the temperature on a pork butt, choose a spot 1 inch below the t-bone in the butt (think 1 inch below an upside down T). This is the part that cooks the slowest and is the spot where the temperature really counts. If this spot is not ready, you cant pull the pork and might as well throw it out. Tent meat for 15 20 minutes or longer to allow juices to flow back into the centre of the meat. This should be done for all larger meats. I wrap mine in foil for an hour after it's done and then pull apart with forks. The second last one I did in the oven, it was January. It took 18 hours to cook and I had the kids in my cooking class begging for the scraps from the picnic of the New York Shoulder. They were very happy with the scraps and thought it was wonderful ( a bit tough, but still full of flavour). The staff got the Boston Butt portion on Toronto Italian buns (crusty outside with a nice crumb) and a homemade bbq sauce that was slightly vinegary, which blends well with the fat of the pork. A sugar based sweet sauce just doesn't have the same effect on pulled pork as it does on chicken. Enjoy and it's a continual experiment to arrive at what you think tastes the best. Don

Here is the next storm for Mexico/Texas and maybe the gulf. This one you want to watch because when it hits Central America/Mexico it may head inland or kick back out into the gulf or Caribbean? At best this is a rainmaker for the area. The alternate paths leave a lot of options open and some of them are not very good for those of you on the coast, then again it could burn itself out in the Central American mountains? Hopefully you are lucky.

gnatnoop and Dave: The rain in Texas is likely the remnants of Karl which died in the mountains of Mexico, inlands from Veracruz. Too far and too late to have anything to do with Igor, even though it was a big hurricane.

Storm 1 model plot is as follows: Kind of confusing, it either hits Belize, or kicks straight up into the gulf and the west side of Florida. Stay tuned for later updates. Lisa looks like it might be heading in the same path as many of this year's hurricanes, Bermuda. Then again it might just head out straight for the north Atlantic.

Latest update on Igor. Bermuda will not be a nice place to be late Sunday/early Monday. It has a 45 mile centre and 90 mile wide hurricane winds, so the island is going to get it no matter how much the path varies from Bermuda. Another storm forming off the coast of Africa. HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 500 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010 DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF IGOR HAD FALLEN TO 939 MB...THE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WERE NOT EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 115 KT FLIGHT- LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND A MAXIMUM WIND OF 77 KT FROM THE SFMR. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK AT 105 KT IN 24 HOURS AND THEN A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IGOR WILL BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA ON SUNDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS IGOR MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER. ONCE IGOR COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...IT WILL BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AFTER A SHORT TERM WOBBLE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. IGOR IS SITUATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 35N...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IGOR WILL TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS ALONG 65W ON SUNDAY AND PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE NORTH OF IGOR REMAINING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND SHOWS IGOR ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. IGOR HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 45 NAUTICAL MILES AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA BY TONIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 25.1N 62.8W 95 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 26.2N 64.1W 100 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 27.8N 65.1W 105 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 29.9N 65.3W 100 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 32.2N 64.7W 95 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 38.5N 58.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 47.5N 46.5W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 23/0600Z 51.5N 39.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Igor continues to barrel down on Bermuda. It's a very big storm and it really doesn't matter how much it misses the island given the current projections. It might miss the eye of the hurricane by a bit, that's a mild consolation. They are likely to take a very strong hit from a Cat 3 hurricane which has moved a touch to the west today. Of course it was a good Cat 4 hurricane, so it will carry with it a strong storm surge. Bermuda is not a good place to be this weekend. HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 500 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE CENTER OF IGOR AROUND 1600 UTC. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 130 AND 98 KT...RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THAT TIME..THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB. BASED UPON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE LOWER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT. THE EXTENSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF IGOR IS STILL PRODUCING ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY...WHICH COULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IGOR WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND OVER COOLER WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. BY DAY 5...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT IGOR WILL BE AT LEAST BEGINNING TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IGOR CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME MOTION...310/7. THE REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS... IGOR SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING WHILE TURNING NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT THIS CYCLE APPARENTLY DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFORMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 21.7N 58.1W 110 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 22.4N 59.2W 110 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 23.5N 61.0W 115 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 24.9N 62.7W 115 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 26.5N 64.0W 110 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 30.5N 65.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 35.5N 62.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 42.0N 53.0W 70 KT

If you go to Stormpulse.com and click clouds to the right hand side you can see what a big boy Igor is? I wouldn't want to be in Bermuda this weekend. Sort of reminds me of Dean, a Cat 5, but because it didn't hit the U.S. mainland it was less important. There appears to be the making of another one just to the southeast of Julia. The storms seem to be forming up further south right on the southwestern coast of Africa and the Atlantic Ocean than Julia and a few of the earlier ones.

The forecast for Karl, heading for the Yucatan. TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND VIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13. KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER FINAL LANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.3N 84.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.9N 86.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.6N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 16/0600Z 20.4N 90.3W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 92.6W 35 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 96.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Igor remains a Cat 4 hurricane for the next three days and then will drop to a strong Cat. 2. It's still a bit away from Bermuda, but I wouldn't be planning a trip there on the Sunday. There is still a wide margin of error, but it definitely will get rain, winds and maybe a significant strike. The Yucatan Pennisula and adjacent Central American countries, in the mountainous regions are going to have to watch out for mudslides which will be a much more significant risk than winds from storm 1. HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010 500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAVE WARMED A LITTLE...AND DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND T-NUMBERS. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. AS STATED EARLIER...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE EVOLUTION ARE PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THEREFORE AT LEAST SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM MODEL AT DAYS 4 AND 5. SATELLITE FIXES OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF IGOR INDICATE THAT THE MUCH-AWAITED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAS OCCURRED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/7. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ON THIS PACKAGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND GLOBAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A BROAD TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RESULTING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE TRACK...WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A WESTERN OUTLIER. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE 5-DAY POINT...SINCE TRACK ERRORS COULD EASILY BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES AT THAT FORECAST INTERVAL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER IGOR WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THAT ISLAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 17.9N 51.7W 115 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 18.4N 52.8W 115 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 19.4N 54.2W 115 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 20.5N 55.7W 120 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 21.7N 57.1W 120 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 24.4N 60.2W 115 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 27.5N 63.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 31.5N 64.5W 90 KT

At the moment, not much to worry about, although storm 1 could produce rain and winds for the Texas/Mexico border. The other hurricanes and storms are going out to sea. Storm 1 from above: Storm 2: Igor is following the same path as previously outlined.

Storm one is still interesting in that it could quite easily intensify. It has the potential to end up colliding with the Yucatan Pennisula or could get some momenetum from the gulf. It's just reaching the stage where we used to see the start of hurricanes. Now we can track them off the coast of Africa. A 50% chance this far out means somebody is getting a lot of rain, in the near future. The other bad news is that it's moving a 5 miles per hour as a forward speed. This gives it more chance to intensify and when it hits an area it just keeps dropping rain in large amounts with very little forward movement. That's not good news! With Igor, the projection means that the areas most affected this season might be Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, in Canada. It has been a strange year so far. I know that parts of Texas have got a lot of rain and the accumulated effects and I am partly joking, but Earl did put out the power in a good part of Nova Scotia. 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 465 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THIS AREA...AND DATA FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO AND AROUND THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE CIRCULATION OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

The 8 a.m. update. Storm one is worth keeping an eye on, although it is in the sourtherly Caribbean Sea. 800 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Igor is projected to reach 85 knot winds, but is going to hit the same force shield as many of the early hurricanes and tropical storms.

Hermine, according to the last forecast for it: THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY THURSDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS IN THESE AREAS. The rest of the possibilities: 200 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...CURRENTLY LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ABILENE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT. 1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. THE REMNANTS OF GASTON...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ARE PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 3. SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISSIPATED. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

I won't be posting during work hours because it's back to school time. Summer holidays are over and it's back to teaching. Gaston seems to have burnt itself out at the moment. 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HARLINGEN TEXAS. 1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 3. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Dave, here is Hermine's path as a tropical storm. It's now heading for the Texas/Mexico border near Brownsville. You will be on the eastern edge as it entends to Baton Rouge with rain. You are on the wrong side of the storm, but maybe far enough away that it could have been a lot worse. TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE HERMINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.4N 95.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 24.9N 96.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 27.0N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/0000Z 29.1N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 08/1200Z 31.4N 100.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 09/1200Z 36.0N 99.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Keep an eye on Gaston as it reforms. It's not very big at the moment, but the projected path.. it's heading for warmer waters and the shield is not directing it to the North Atlantic. It's heading for either Florida or the gulf at some point. Of course, the islands in the Caribbean may weaken it some, but the warm waters further west could result in a significant hurricane. It's also worth noting that this is the point where we used to note the start of hurricanes, where we now can see them coming off the coast of Africa. As they hit the leeward islands, that's usually where it starts to get interesting. There is a storm in the Gulf of Mexico, but is so close to shore, that it might get larger, but it seems to be headed mostly into Mexico, with rain in the Brownsville, Corpus Christi area. It's been a lucky season so far in regards to major hurricanes hitting the mainland U.S. Two storms behind Gaston might also yield a storm, but it's been a strange year. Earl took out power to a significant part of Nova Scotia, 221 000 homes, at it continued to wander up the east coast.

A little early on Gaston's track path, since half have it heading up the Atlantic Coast while the other half are heading into the Caribbean Sea. Keep an eye on this one. Unless that Star Wars defense mechanism keeps working, it may very well find main land U.S.A. As for Earl, it is going to be off the coast but will effect North Carolina, Cape Cod and the Bay of Fundy in Canada. Not a nice storm, but it isn't scheduled to hit land until it hits Nova Scotia. The good part of that is that the northeast front never hits land because that's the quadrant that does the most damage. I would be concerned about a storm surge in the areas along the North Carolina islands because it's a strong Cat 3 hurricane and it did reach weak Cat 4 status. It should have some surge associated with it, but not to the extent of a Cat 5. Katrina was a Cat 5 in the gulf and I certainly remember seeing the remnants of that storm surge. Anytime there has been a Cat 5 off the coast, then the surge usually is quiet significant and there are deaths associated with it. The waves get formed out at sea and when the sea floor get shallower, they go further inland at over ten feet above sea level. It's also possible that Hermine will be worth watching because each hurricane is gettting closer to the coast each time. It's a mild disturbance at the moment off the coast of Africa, but in two days it will have a number and maybe a name. The trough may not be having the same effect as it did earlier.

I've been a bit busy with a small project I started before school starts tomorrow. It started out as a small area of porcelain tile and has become the entranceway, closet and powder room. Of course, the toilet, vanity and vanity top also need replacing, and the walls and baseboards need to be replaced. The tile is mostly laid and will be finished tomorrow, but there is still several days work ahead, but it will look a lot nicer than carpet down the main hallway. Earl is getting closer to North Carolina, but still off the coast. It is now a low Cat 4 hurricane and will be a Cat 3 off the North Carolina cost. There will be a storm surge, but not to the same degree as if Earl had been a Cat 5 at some point. If on the coast, be prepared for rain and strong winds. Fiona is heading further out to sea and will remain a tropical storm. 500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 EARL ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AROUND 1700 UTC REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 128 KNOTS. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL. THIS SHEAR IS CAUSED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES. HOWEVER...MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW AS EARL MOVES AROUND IT...RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 OR 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS STEERING EARL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE EARL ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...EARL WILL REACH THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A FEW MILES TO THE WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EARL...AND THE NEW DEFINITION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS...A HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 22.0N 68.8W 115 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.3N 70.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.6N 72.8W 115 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 74.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 75.5W 115 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 36.0N 73.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 44.0N 65.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 56.0N 55.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP FIONA 500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF FIONA...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE BANDING. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT AND SEVERAL UNFLAGGED SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/21 KT. FIONA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE VERY SOON AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN 36-48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE STORM IN 2-3 DAYS AS THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF FIONA BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF EARL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 16.7N 57.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 17.9N 60.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 20.2N 63.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.0N 66.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.5N 67.7W 35 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 33.5N 67.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Earl may provide rainfall, wind and some waves to the exposed coast of North Carolina as it continues to amp up before it heads out to the Atlantic north of Bermuda. The potential Fiona is also tracking for Bermuda and then doing the track out to sea path. The force shield seems to continue to work well. A strange year for hurricanes.

Danielle is on the same projected path east of Bermuda, but Earl is going just to the west of the island. Probably not a good idea to plan a trip there in six or seven days with winds at 100 knots per hour. Two major hurricanes and the only place seeing them is Bermuda.

Nothing much has changed with the forecasts for either Danielle or Earl. Both should curl out to see and miss Bermuda to the east. Both will hit Cat 4 status, but not bother the U.S. Fiona is following behind Earl and is a 60% possiblility of becoming a numbered storm and then becoming Fiona. Within the next day or two, it will become Fiona. We will see what the trough looks like by the time it reaches 60 degrees W. latitude. So far the forecasts for significant hurricanes seems correct, the good news is most of them aren't hitting anyone. Of course, this is good news.

The tracks have not changed for either Danielle, projected to reach Cat 3 status and Earl, which may reach Cat 3 status. They are both projected to track westward, then northwest and turn north between 57 and 62 degrees W. latitude, a hundred to three hundred miles east of Bermuda. Fiona looks like it's now forming up just off the coast of Africa, but unless the trough disappears, it may be subject to the same path.

This the initial tracking for Storm 7, which between 57 and 63 degrees W. Longitude heads north and out to sea. The force sheild must still be up.