rll Posted June 29, 2009 Share Posted June 29, 2009 Le Tour begins Saturday in Monaco, so who do you like? Astana - everyone thought they would dominate the Giro, did not happen. Will the team split but still be strong enough among the two factions to control the race a la La Vie Claire in 85 and 86, or will it crumble a la Telekom with Ulrich and Vinokourov just a few years ago allowing someone else to ****** it away? Contador, with his victory in the Spanish time trial championship, no longer has any weakness. He is the clear favorite, but can not win alone. Armstrong has not yet shown that he has regained the ability to climb and time trial with the world's best. He'll have to show me he can before I put him in the top five, much less on the podium. Evans is a solid rider, but lacks explosive climbing ability, the ability to rdop his rivals. That means he must dominate the time trials, but he has not shown that he can. Menchov, with his Giro win, finally showed some of his promise. Does he have anything left for the Tour? Can he eliminate the 1 or 2 bad days he invariably has? Sastre has been silent, so who knows. The Schleck brothers? Who else? Who is ready to step up and be rekoned with? Who do you like? And of course the big wild card - this year's doping scandal, what impact will it have? Can't wait. Your thoughts? Randy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islander Posted June 29, 2009 Share Posted June 29, 2009 This year's doping scandal? Hadn't heard. Fill me in. I'm really not up to date, so I'll be rooting for Lance. At least he's highly unlikely to get pulled out for doping, unlike the guy I was cheering for a year or two ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rll Posted June 30, 2009 Author Share Posted June 30, 2009 No specific scandal at the moment but who knows what may happen over the three weeks. Rasmussen given the boot (by his team) while leading for lying about his whereabouts, the Saunier Duval teammates booted after winning two stages testing positive, leading to the remainder of the team to withdraw, Bernhard Kohl, last year's King of the Mountains, testing positive leading to a suspension that he has turned into a retirement. That sort of thing - what we don't know yet. I'm not sure Lance has returned to his pre-retirement form. To me he doesn't look as lean as he was, like he's regained some of his pre-cancer body mass. That will affect him in the mountains. We saw in the Giro that he could not stay with the leaders on the final climbs, but maybe he was playing his hand close to the vest. He tried a couple attacks that did not go, then faded. Maybe he was just testing his climbing legs and was happy, so let it go. On paper it's Astana's race to win or lose, but it doesn't always (usually?) go that way. Contador looks to be extremely well-prepared. Lance says he'll support the strongest rider, but will he really? Or will he seize upon a moment's weakness and ride for himself? Can Bruyneel keep the team from dividing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islander Posted June 30, 2009 Share Posted June 30, 2009 Stay tuned... Thanks for the update. Looks like it could be anyone's race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Islander Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 The third stage is completed and Lance Armstrong is in second, less than a second back from first place. He's looking strong and so is his Astana team. Go Lance! The race is on Outdoor Life Network every day, for three hours in the morning (live) and three hours in the evening (taped). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardP Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 The race is on Outdoor Life Network every day, for three hours in the morning (live) and three hours in the evening (taped). Not to mention the two daytime repeats of the live morning coverage, and the 2nd late repeat of the evening "enhanced" coverage! You can watch 15+ hours each day. Add to that the hour long "Lance retrospectives" each day.Versus (renamed from OLN 3 yrs ago) unfortunately has made the Tour into the "Lance Show," where about 50% of the content is about him, even though he will not win. Like the Giro, he will likely place in the top 10, but he cannot climb like he use to, certainly not as well as Contador and probably Sastre and A. Schleck. Just like reality shows and lots of other TV, Versus exaggerates and even fabricates drama and conflict, like internal strife among teammates, a sure formula for audience ratings. Even Lance seems to be promoting himself beyond his current abilities. Recall that one stated reason for his coming out of retirement is to promote his LiveStrong foundation, and any attention on him is attention to his cause. He is fairly media savvy, and uses it to his advantage. That said, I will watch every second of it, as it is the only game in town for cycling fans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rll Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 The crosswinds at the end of stage 3 really helped animate the race during the first week. The time gained with the split was not significant, but I thought the tactics were. Lance and his Astana mates spent some time at the front driving the break. To me, if Lance felt Contador were the team's captain, he, Rast and Popovych would have sat on the back of the break as passengers. I still think we'll see a split among Astana, if we haven't already. Another thing that we were reminded of the other day was how astute Lance is tactically. Contador is not, he can always be counted on to make a mistake somewhere. His talent has allowed him, up to now, to overcome those errors. The pressure of the Tour is enormous. Lance knows how to deal with it. Granted, Contador has won the Tour before, one would think he knows how to deal with the pressure. But the comments he's made over the months since Armstrong unretired and joined Astana leave me wondering if he's fragile emotionally. If so, he may crack under the pressure. Weak teams in the TTT seem to have put an end to the chances of Menchov and Evans. I love the TTT, but it really seems to have put an early end to the overall chances of a good part of the favorites. It was almost comical to watch half the bBox team ride into the weeds. But to their credit, Voeckler regrouped to win the stage yesterday. Tomorrow will tell us more, and will set the stage for the next two weeks. Today looked to be fairly benign, but halfway through and it's beginning to rain. So anything's possible. Have to agree about Versus and its "all Lance, all the time" format. Yes he came out of retirement to promote his foundation, but he smells yellow, and I think he desperately wants it. Even if Astana splits, alliances can be formed. Lance has friends at Columbia, he and Columbia have different objectives, stage wins (Columbia) vs. overall (Lance). That, in theory, could be a mutually beneficial alliance at the right time. Stay tuned. It won't be over until the Ventoux. Randy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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