HD-DVD, XBox, Wii ...and Blu-Ray and PS3... oh Sony....

[dblue]

none of the 3 systems have any good software right now. zelda is the exact same game as the game cube version, gears of war has nice graphics and poor control and resistance is a halo/cod clone.

What, seriously? What an uninformed statement.

[skonopa]

Wii sports has proven to be an extremely popular title, though to concede it is a launch title and is expected to sell decently.

Clarification - Wii Sports was a pack-in to the Wii system. In other words, the Wii Sports game came with every Wii that has been sold. So no wonder it is so popular! It came with the friggan system!

One of my friends has a PS3. He said he dropped nearly $1,000 by the time he got all the games and accessories as well as the console itself! I am a gamer myself (although I haven't really played much lately), but I just cannot see myself spending that much on a gaming console. I could sink that into some pretty nice upgrades for my computer, since I am pretty much more into computer gaming than the consoles. Still, the graphics looked pretty sweet from what I've seen. However, NAS does have a very valid point in that the average Joe is not going to spend that much just to play games. Hell, most typcial peoples computers did not cost that much these days (this very eMachines I am typing this on only set me back $300, and I got lucky on a sweet deal - another $230 for the Samsung 19-inch wide-screen LCD panel, and still less than the cost of a PS3)!

My younger brother got a Nintendo Wii for the boys for Christmas, and it has to be the coolest thing I've seen in a long time. The reason for the Wii? The Xbox 360 and PS3 were to damn expensive! He can stomach $250 for a Wii, but not $400 for an Xbox 360 and espeically not $600 for the PS3! And of course, figure another couple hundred for games and accessories.

[mas]

I think this hits the nail regarding many strategic factors for families (which constitute the major market) on the head.

I suspect the real success of the platforms will be determined by their adoption and penetration into the average household, not simply by how many hard core fans are out there, and certainly not based simply on some abstract technical engineering review.

Just as in audio, while there are those who simply must have the KHorn, Jubilee, or LaScala (who? Me!? ;-) ) and some more exotic electronics, this market is much smaller than for a more economical and 'wife friendly' (no offense meant to the women!) and commoditized format that makes more economical sense to a middle income family with a couple of kids who are trying to make their budget work!

They make up the majority of the market, not the fanboys. And targeting a niche market at the expense of the masses, while it can work, is not necessarily the best strategy if you are trying to dominate a market in order to make a particular format dominant. Again, a basic SWOT/TOWS (strength/weakness/opportunity/threat) analysis would tell you that making the quality product that adequately meets expectations that is economically more accessible to more people, is a smart marketing move. And in Sony's case it has already been reported that their hardware profit margin is either very slim or even negative... Having the most technologically superior product does not always insure market success! (as we saw with Beta, a product far superior to VHS! and the Macintosh)

Failure to make the products a more compelling and economical option for the mass market relegates them to a niche market rather than to a dominant mainstream position.

And Sony needs to do a better job of strategic management if they want to succeed. And right now, its prohibitive entry price point, not to mention the numerous necessary accessories, prices it 'up there'! And then they expect the average household to invest in a >$2K media center in addition to a personal computer!?!?!?!?! Sure! And everyone is going to buy a Lexus and a BMW instead of a Corolla and a Honda. Get real!

...And this means a more aggressive mainstream marketing strategy that makes the product more attractive to the average household.

Folks, this is not about technological whiz-bang and hype. It is about basic economical market analysis. Its a business. And the fanboy enthusiasm, while fine for hype, needs to be tempered by market based reason if one wants to more accurately judge the developing market.

[Jay481985]

remember ps2 was priced 300 dollars or was it 400 when it came out? Now it is around 150 dollars for the tiny version.

[damonrpayne]

It also had a noticable effect on DVD sales and was released when DVD was fairly new. Price and inclusion of the BD drive are looking less crazy all the time.

[JJkizak]

Well I went into Best Buy today and they had equal bins for Bluray and HD-DVD movies and there were about twice as many discs in the HD-DVD bin. They also had a Sony Bluray player for 999.99 but I did not see the HD-DVD player.

JJK

[el jopez]

However is there a need on the part of the consumer to "upgrade" from one format to another? I highly doubt the average joe on the street could care less about these technologies. Quite frankly I know of many people who still use VHS and have only recently switched to DVD.

Mas, i have followed the CES announcement as well I watched Gates Keynote Live. The 360 was never designed as a standalone media player; it is an extender/receiver that was built from the ground up to work seamlessly with Windows XP Media Center and specifically with Windows Vista. Having used the feature for over a year now I love it and yes your PC is supposed to be the server; 20 gigs of HD spaces doesn't hold enough data. [] The only major update announced was IPTV which will allow for TV stations to be broadcast via the internet directly to your 360.

Personally I think I will be upgrading my PC to take advantage of the great things coming out this year; 2007 is going to be fun.

[Jay481985]

However is there a need on the part of the consumer to "upgrade" from one format to another? I highly doubt the average joe on the street could care less about these technologies. Quite frankly I know of many people who still use VHS and have only recently switched to DVD. My parents [:$]

Mas, i have followed the CES announcement as well I watched Gates Keynote Live. The 360 was never designed as a standalone media player; it is an extender/receiver that was built from the ground up to work seamlessly with Windows XP Media Center and specifically with Windows Vista. Having used the feature for over a year now I love it and yes your PC is supposed to be the server; 20 gigs of HD spaces doesn't hold enough data. [] The only major update announced was IPTV which will allow for TV stations to be broadcast via the internet directly to your 360.

Personally I think I will be upgrading my PC to take advantage of the great things coming out this year; 2007 is going to be fun.

[mas]

Again, technological possibilities have failed to be converted to a compelling market necessity.

The notion that most households are going to convert their house to a Media center PC is a pipe dream. Let alone invest in both an XBox and a PS3. When consumer debt is at an all time high, everyone needs to add a minimum of another $3K to their budget foe games and movies - and that is before the subscribe to the recurring expense of cable, satellite, Netflix, DSL, cell phone, etc. etc. etc.!

Heck, most that have a PC have never backed up their computer, let alone experienced the joy and expense of losing all of their audio or video files. Yet you expect most to upgrade and add multiple expensive systems when they will not employ a simple backup scenario! First things first!

I deal with far too many computers everyday. Including systems that render the most advance Windows setup as the technical equivalent of my wristwatch. Heck, I moved to the DFW area specifically to work on the internal development of the IBM RS6000SP - the latest incarnation of which is a 'little' computer complex called "Blue Gene". []

So, computers don't scare me (although perhaps they should!) Even so, I have no intention of moving to a computer for managing my collection.

Why should I? I have a fool proof non-volatile system that works fine. I have no problem to fix. In fact, moving to Media Center PC introduces more problems, maintenance and expense than it solves!

The fact that you can go to great expense and hassle to do it, only to have a volatile system requiring additional maintenance and expense does not provide a compelling reason that one should do it! And there is your problem!

Here is your problem and your challenge. Provide a compelling reason for me to change!

As it is, if I want a media server, all I need to do is buy a Sony DVD/CD carousel that holds 400 disks. And a second one if need be. No memory to manage or back up. I'm done. And why in heck would I want to start paying for low-fi lossy MP3s????? []

And it is a problem the market selling this stuff has failed to address. Bottomline.

I don't really care about whizbang technical possibilities. YOUR responsibility in pushing this stuff is to provide a compelling reason why this is cheaper and better than the system I have in lace now! Everything else is technical trivia -fascinating as it may be.

Let me use a bit of an exaggeration to make the point.

Civilian space travel is now possible. For $20M or so you can actually fly as crew on the Space Shuttle. How long is the line?

See the problem? The simple ability to do so does not provide for a compelling reason to need to do so.

And if someone wants to move to a software management system, you do NOT need a Media Center PC with an XBox!

Managed NAS will do just fine as a file server.

Keep you PC. In fact, if you want to play games, simply get a better video card and have at it.

[Jay481985]

Civilian space travel is now possible. For $20M or so you can actually fly as crew on the Space Shuttle. How long is the line?

Uh just for matter of facts, its not the space shuttle as America is the only one with a space shuttle. You can go into space paying 20 million dollars to the Russians which use Rockets still. Also it takes about a year of training even for a civilian to get up there. That is alot of money and time for people, especially the ones that have that kind of disposable income.

[el jopez]

In respect to gaming, the argument between consoles (xbox, playstation) and PC's is that console features as far as power are locked in; no variables where as in the PC world you can always upgrade and switch out components. As far as PC gaming is concerned it is extremley expensive to be upgrading to the next best graphics card to truly run the next generation of PC games; this gets frustrating with graphics cards running 300 or so plus. Consoles in the long run are way cheaper and with todays products offer pleasent gaming experience, regardless of the 12 year old kid who likes to yell and talk smack during Halo 2 games.

With the Blu-Ray, HD-DVD formats its great to be able to purchase movies with superior sound and image. Is it necessary? No. The same argument could be said of the legions of Hi-Fi audio owners, is it necessary? No, but it sure as hell is fun. With everything there is a price point of diminishing returns where one person could be pleased with spending 50K on a HT where as another wouldn't spend more than a couple hundred and be more than content. We could argue quality of product A and B all day long, but as far as the consumer is concerned, if they enjoy it, let 'em buy it.

Life is about choice and thats great. I think what has steamed the majority of HT enthusiasts (including myself) is the lack of interoperability between these new technologies and the current ones in place. Blu-Ray have been out for about a year and HD-DVD for about two, and its only this spring that AVR's will be able to decode the audio streams. Getting the industry to work together is like trying to herd cats.

[damonrpayne]

I mostly agree with you el jopez. My #1 complaint is that the rollout of everything HD has been a mess, with my #2 comlaint being unable to unify hd-dvd/bluray standards before launch.

HD-DVD has been out since about March of last year, if by "out" you mean players and content available, and for BluRay about June of last year. The formats were obviously in development long before then but I'm not sure where you get "out for 2 years" since HD-DVD has yet to reach its 1st birthday.

[sunburnwilly]

Getting the industry to work together is like trying to herd cats.

Agreed ,

Anyone can herd cattle , but it takes a real man to round up a couple hundred honary short hairs !

Just look at Tex's face ; it's ripped to shreads !!!

[mas]

OK, the Space Station... The point stands. Was anyone really confused by the point of the statement? Besides, the Russian system, complete with tube technology is probably more reliable anyway, just like their jet fighters designed to survive and function in first strike conditions, where ours are brought down by gum wrappers on the runway.

I love how this thread vascillates between "which format will dominate" - which by definition has little to do with technological prowess and is instead a business market issue, and "who's (technology) is bigger?"

And when one explores the business market aspect, others run to talk about how whiz bang some technology is and how it trounces the competition. Thanks, but that is simply fanboy hype. Yeah, I still have a fully functional Super Beta Hi-Fi unit with S/N within 1 dB of a CD. And I have been a Mac fan since they literally first came out! So I can appreciate technology for technology's sake.

Unfortunately, that doesn't mean squat to the market success or domination of a particular technology.

The fact is, technological prowess has no necessary connection to market domination. History is strewn with myriad examples. So, trotting out the clock rates, or the fact that you can build a massively parallel super computer with your home entertainment system, or that you can communicate with fireflies with a particular model headset won't insure any products success.

So, tell me again how many GB a Blu-Ray disk can theoretically hold... Not even the IT industry really cares any longer.

Yet we are still deluged with such specs in the hope, I guess, that you can bludgeon the competition into submission with specs.

The amazing thing is that passion for a particular technology isn't enough in the larger market. Nor is the presence of a particular movie title in the scheme of the fruitfly's lifecycle of movies.

And the success of any platform is not going to be based on how wonderful it is to spend another $2-3K AFTER the already high investment (for most families) in the basic platform! (Especially as most of the available games can be argued to be unsuitable for younger children.)

The success of the Wii should be evidence enough of this! But who would want that???? Heck, its not the fastest and no one has even proposed turning it into a $2-3-4K system, nor a supercomputer! Why would anyone want that? The irony is, if you can't figure that out, why would anyone be interested in the rest of your prognostications?

And why, after 6+ years of hype, is the Media Center PC still an anomaly? Duh... And why does the iPod, which has not pretense of becoming an all inclusive media center still own the market???

No one needs to hear the excuses. Rather, the silence is deafening regarding the compelling reasons to invest in a system that will have to be continually fed and updated to remain current in the marketplace.

Oh, as expensive as replacing video cards is every 2 or 3 years, compare the $3-400 to replacing the Media Center and all of its associated accoutrements. Gee, only the video card sounds like a pretty sweet option - especially as its life cycle is distinctly longer if you don't need to display it on a 48" monitor?

And neither do I care whether small contingent of technology geeks ( and yes, I include myself here as well!) likes a particular product. How does this translate into a compelling reason for the mass market to adopt it?

...Just as the ability to build a fully functional car out of Legos has not led to that product dominating the market! Gee, and I can't for the life of me figure out why....

I don't anticipate HD-DVD, Blu-Ray or the Media Center PCs dominating any time soon! And neither do I see the XBox or the PS3 evolving into anything more than what they are right now... niche products, an accessory, with too many already established and too many economical alternatives ranging from from PS2 to Wii to cable to satellite to the DVD ...... Especially as the enterprise IT market has rather lost interest in either technology as well, as they are both too small and too late.

Right now, except for preliminary market data, someone needs to be doing
a rigorous mass market oriented SWOT and TOWS analysis of their marketing model in several of the camps if they have any ideas of becoming more.

[mas]

but I'm not sure where you get "out for 2 years" since HD-DVD has yet to reach its 1st birthday.

In a slightly different interpretation of this, it was a a year before HD-DVD formed their consortium after Sony announced the advent of Blu-Ray - in reaction to both the internal problems within Sony as well as their problems they already were encountering in working with Sony.

Needless to say, Sony does not have (and has not had for some time) a good working relationship within their own industry.

Hey folks! Anyone interested in my new water powered automobile? Wait right here! It should be out in, say, 5 years, or 6...or 7...or, wait a second, we should have enough to actually sell in ....well... just wait right here! Oh, and did we not mention that they are incompatible with the existing road systems! Oh don't worry! A minor inconvenience! Everything will be worked out! besides, by then everyone will just naturally have changed the existing infrastructure to accommodate our format, as our system is just that much more advanced! Oh, and you think that 100K is a little expensive for a car for the average family? Really?

Well, as silly as that sounds, we are witnessing it as we speak.

And the irony is that I personally prefer Blu-Ray. I also like Beta and the Mac. Unfortunately, the strategic management of all of these technologies was lacking as well. The pattern continues.

And simply trotting out more non sequitur specs and preaching to the choir will not change this. Apple did this as well.

That misses the point...and the market.

[skonopa]

Just as in audio, while there are those who simply must have the KHorn, Jubilee, or LaScala (who? Me!? ;-) ) and some more exotic electronics, this market is much smaller than for a more economical and 'wife friendly' (no offense meant to the women!) and commoditized format that makes more economical sense to a middle income family with a couple of kids who are trying to make their budget work!

They make up the majority of the market, not the fanboys. And targeting a niche market at the expense of the masses, while it can work, is not necessarily the best strategy if you are trying to dominate a market in order to make a particular format dominant. Again, a basic SWOT/TOWS (strength/weakness/opportunity/threat) analysis would tell you that making the quality product that adequately meets expectations that is economically more accessible to more people, is a smart marketing move. And in Sony's case it has already been reported that their hardware profit margin is either very slim or even negative... Having the most technologically superior product does not always insure market success! (as we saw with Beta, a product far superior to VHS! and the Macintosh)

Failure to make the products a more compelling and economical option for the mass market relegates them to a niche market rather than to a dominant mainstream position.

And that is precisely why Klipsch is putting out something like just announced CS-500 system. I know use "power-users" like to have the big Heritage and/or Reference in our systems (myself included), but I know many people that don't, including my parents as well as many of my friends (including one that has seen and heard my system, but still would not want something like that in his own home). Now, I just hope that Klipsch markets it as, like you said, a more compelling and economical option for the mass market.

It seems that is were Nintendo got it right with the Wii. They even said it was not the fastest/most-powerful thing, but that was not what they were trying for. Just last night, I was in the local Best Buy, and I saw they had something like 40 PS/3s stacked up in a large pyramid, yet I still could not seem to find a single Wii anywhere in stock. It seems that once the initial buzz of the PS/3 died out (as well as the holiday season ended), nobody is buying them up. Will be interesting to see what happens around summertime. I would not be surprised if Sony ends up cutting the price by next Christmas, plus maybe that "must-have" game will finally come out, much like back in the day when Space Invaders came out on the Atari 2600.

[skonopa]

As it is, if I want a media server, all I need to do is buy a Sony DVD/CD carousel that holds 400 disks. And a second one if need be. No memory to manage or back up. I'm done. And why in heck would I want to start paying for low-fi lossy MP3s????? []

And it is a problem the market selling this stuff has failed to address. Bottomline.

I'll tell you why I started paying for "low-fi lossy MP3s". Because of CONVENIENCE! I have an eMusic account at which I pay $20/90 downloads/month. That comes out to about 22 cents a track. I find it an excellent way to explore and discover new music. I'd spend it on a single CD per month anyway, so might as well spend it on a service that actually contains the music that I am interested in, and is completely DRM-free. However, this does not mean that I am going to leave it up to my computers to managed my collection (and believe me, I've also spend plenty of time with plenty of computers here as well, and this stuff is not something to be sneezed at either). I am not going to replace all my CD's with MP3s, and in fact, if I find I really like something that I got in MP3 off the internet, I'll go and actually get the CD, if at all possible. Case in point - Angra's newest album - Aurora Consurgens. I got it off of eMusic and managed to find a copy of it at Best Buy of all places (at friggan $15 - nearly the cost of my eMusic subscription!) Interesting I did a A/B listening of the CD vs the MP3s. Yes, there is ever so slight "graininess" to the MP3, but still sounded extremely good on my setup. I doubt anybody would even know it was an MP3 unless I pointed it out to them. Given that, I have never bought anything off of iTunes or those other "commercial" download services as I honostly think 99 cents/track for a "low-fi lossless MP3" is too much, especially since all those services saddle the tracks with DRM restrictions anyway.

And if someone wants to move to a software management system, you do NOT need a Media Center PC with an XBox!

Managed NAS will do just fine as a file server.

Keep you PC. In fact, if you want to play games, simply get a better video card and have at it.

In fact, guess what I use to manage my music collection - an old PC that I "resurrected" to be a file server. I got something like a terabyte of storage packed in that thing. I use a Roku SoundBridge M1000 to stream music into my home system off the server. Unfotunatly, I did have the mother board go kaput on me once (it was an old Athlon based motherboard). All of about $230 for a new motherboard, processor (AMD Sempron 3200+), 512 megs of RAM and 300 watt power supply, and it was back up and runnning with nary a byte of last data. Now, I do need to come up with a better backup solution than I currently have. I may ended up getting one of those terabyte external drives and have it do backups to it. I do burn stuff I really want to keep onto DVD-R, such as the many pictures I've taken with my digital camera.

[mas]

Some good points...

BTW, I am not trying to tell everyone what they must or even should do. I certainly hope that no one has misinterpreted my doom and gloom interpretation for much of the high tech sector in this manner. If they are into the technology and find value in it and are prepared to preform the maintenance that is needed, by all means have fun.

My point is rather that the mainstream market is not going to do adopt the more extravagant aspects of the tecnology in the foreseeable future. And in this sense, this technology is not going to dominate the market in the near future. And I do not mean the market as in "what is for sale", but rather as in what has been purchased and actually implemented.

And a simple measure of this is to ask who, at this moment, already has a comprehensive automatic backup system in place that is actively used?

Until that changes, I don't see the mass market adopting all of the proverbial technological advancements. And such 'high end' products will continue to occupy only a niche.

{Oh, and regarding the MP3 issue, I meant: why should I start buying them when I already have a hard copy collection. But then I do not buy for simply a particular song. For someone who already has a large investment in music, a PC Media Center is more hype than advantage when you can get almost the same advantage with a DVD/CD carousel.}

[skonopa]

{Oh, and regarding the MP3 issue, I meant: why should I start buying them when I already have a hard copy collection. But then I do not buy for simply a particular song. For someone who already has a large investment in music, a PC Media Center is more hype than advantage when you can get almost the same advantage with a DVD/CD carousel.}

Granted this is getting off topic, but the idea of media centers have been brought up. If you already have the music in "hard copy", then it would be foolish to re-buy them again in MP3 off a download service. However, there are many folks (even my parents have started doing this), that do like to rip thier collection into a media server. Again, this is for convience sake (and the original acts as the backup - loose your music - re-rip it from the original). There is definitly something to be said to be able to quickly search through a large collection and instantly being able to pull up it. Not even a DVD/CD carousel is that good, plus my music server can hold way more than even the largest DVD/CD carousels that are available. And if you are anal about the quality, than use one of the many "loss-less" formats, such as FLAC - hell, harddrives are cheap these days. And if I do need more space, it is easier for me to add another harddrive to that tower than it is for me to find room for yet another CD coursel in my component rack, not to mention the harddrives are much cheaper than those CD carousels anyway (I just saw 250 gig drives for $99 at Best Buy yesterday evening, for example). Now granted, I don't have all my CDs in my music server, as I still seem to find myself still doing it the "old-fashioned" way of looking though my CD rack, picking out something to listen to, and stick in my player (I only have a 5-CD changer). But for the stuff that I do have on my server, I can pull it right up at my computer via a web interface, while surfing this forum, and instanly, the music starts playing through the Roku SoundBridge into my system! No having to search through CD's. No having to wait for some slow-*** carousel to take forever and a day to finally find the CD I requested and start playing (not to mention I hear the reliability of those things are quite questionable - maybe they are better now-a-days)

So far, I back up the most "important" stuff to a 160 gig external drive, such my pictures. If I lost my music, I can re-download from eMusic without having to pay for it again, but I do have most of it on my iPod (which also acts as a backup - yes, I have found ways to get music back off the iPod, despite iTunes in-ability to do so itself). And yes, even my parents has an automated back up to an external drive

and actually uses it (I help them set it up, especially given the

enourmous amount of digital pictures they have).

It may not be for you, but I know many, many folks that are listening to music that way, using servers and such. Not to mention the convience of taking all that music in an iPod to work or in the car without hassling around with CDs all the time. Really a God-send when I am traveling!

However, I will not buy a $600 console to do all of the above when an old computer that I had laying around unused ended up doing what I wanted. The Roku SoundBridge did cost $200, though, but still, much less than an Xbox or PS3. Still, I spent much less to get this all setup and working than most people spend just on CD players around here (and admittedly, my Denon DCM-380 CD player did cost $350)

[mas]

OK...

But again this keeps returning the an explanation of how it can be done. (By the way, I do personally appreciate learning how various individuals have approached the issue!)

But in my assumed role as Devil's Advocate here insisting upon a business approach to the issue, I am not really sure what the point is.

Sure 'it' can be done. I know this, as I routinely deal with massive secure data archival and retrieval systems and databases that are easily in the multi-multi-TB range. I know it can be done. And it can be done even more simply and more reliably and elegantly than many have described.

But let's just look at the iPod market. Even your scheme for downloading files is a niche of a niche of a niche compared to what the majority of the market has chosen..

And as far as carousels being interminably slow and unreliable? Not Sony's, and I have heard nice things about Pioneer's as well. And the ganged carousels have little if any pause between CDs. Certainly no less than the time it takes to mouse through a database to select a track. And the carousels incur NO added expense. Nada.

But that is not the point either...

The point is the scenario for for the typical iPod owner - the majority of the public that have bought into this scenario (literally!) at 99 cents for a mediocre quality song, and then dedicate a computer for their media center, and I don't care how cheap a hdisk is. Another $100-200 per drive is still an expense on top of the expense on top of the expense. And MOST people do not have a reliable backup schema! Heck, as I have asked, how many routinely have an automated backup their system and data files now? Few...

So, we can debate what technique or product can be used till the cows some home. I mean, if we are going to simply say that it can be done, I propose using IBM Tivoli Storage Manager. It is easily the most powerful archival system in existence, and I already know how to use it so there is no ramp up time. And I can easily configure it on a highly available fast SCSI raid with each drive on separate controllers. And since we are going to make each logical volume read only, we can take advantage of the contiguous memory and the read ahead buffer with striping. I mean, if we are going to do it, let's do it right.

I have no problem designing a very elegant database with a tuner - which is all a Media center is.

Again, debating how or if it can be done is not the answer. Home control systems have been a reality in terms of their being possible for 25 years. How many homes have an integrated lighting, energy management, security, etc. system? But hey, its possible! I can even do it myself without calling an expensive consultant to design and install it! So, do you have one? Does your neighbor? How many folks on your street do? In your neighborhood? Yeah, I thought so!

The issue that everyone ignores is whether the average family - in other words, the mass market - is going to do this!

And just like integrated home control systems, few are going to go the elaborate high end gaming and integrated Media Center PC route. But gee whiz, I have all of my movies on a hard drive! The seek time is phenomenal. Too bad it doesn't replace the time a discussion takes that occurs when several people decide what movie they want to watch. And i would suggest that the argument that they are 'faster' then taking a DVD out of a case is akin to the argument that the reason you need a computer is so that you can put all of your recipes onto it!

The fact is, for the majority, such a system is beyond their budget, its intimidating - if not simply beyond their understanding, and it presents no compelling reason to buy it. They already have a very reasonable method of watching movies or listening to music.

But can folks do this? Sure. Some can have fancy Media Centers, or dune buggies/ATVs, or 12 inch Meade Schmidt-Cassegrain telescopes, or a Porsche GT3/4, or fancy bass boats.

But with regards to which presents a compelling reason for the majority of the mass market to invest in them, NONE of them qualify! And you are dealing with, at best, a small niche market, not the large mass market some keep imaging this new gaming and Media Center technology to comprise.

So, my position is not 'Can it be done'. I know how to do it! But even knowing how to do it does not present a compelling reason to do it. Heck, the majority of audio & PC technoids on this forum haven't done it. So i hate to burst anyone's bubble who thinks they will take over the market, but my mom and dad won't consider it even if I volunteer to set it up for them! And I suggest that they are much closer to the mass market than the few here who simply keep telling me that it can be done.

It doesn't matter IF it can be done! And simply telling me more ways it can be done hasn't and won't do it!

So here it is: The industry has simply not developed a product that is simple enough to use, that costs within the average household budget who already complain about the cost of cable/satellite, and which presents them with significant capabilities and advantages over what they already have.

Until they do, whatever technology everyone is running about touting will remain a niche product at best.

If folks haven't figured the market trends out, folks are not looking for bigger more expensive options! They are looking for smaller more convenient theaters in a box and iPods. And the expensive techy alternatives will continue to remain a small niche.