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The amazing Credit Default Swap dog that wags the world


Colin

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Credit Default Swaps

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Credit_default_swaps_vs_total_nominals_plus_debt.png

Guess who are the above average size players in the wild dog that wags the world economy?

http://www.dtcc.com/products/derivserv/data_table_i.php?id=table6

  1. Alteria
  2. AMBAC
  3. Autozone
  4. Bank of America
  5. Barclays
  6. Venezuela
  7. British Telecom
  8. Carrefour
  9. Centex
  10. CenturyTel
  11. CIT group
  12. Citigroup
  13. Clear Channel
  14. Compass
  15. Computer Sciences
  16. Continental AK
  17. Daimler
  18. Deutsche Bank
  19. Lufthansa
  20. Ford and Ford Credit
  21. France Telecom
  22. Gannet
  23. GE
  24. GMAC
  25. Harrah’s
  26. Hutchison Whampoa
  27. International Lease
  28. International Paper
  29. Sainsbury
  30. Jones Apparel
  31. JPMorgan Chase (CDS creators)
  32. Kingfisher
  33. Koninklijke companies
  34. Lennar
  35. Limited Brands
  36. Marks and Spencer
  37. MBIA
  38. Meadvest
  39. Merrill Lynch
  40. MGIC
  41. Morgan Stanley
  42. Pearson
  43. Portugal Telecom
  44. PPR
  45. Pulte
  46. Radian
  47. Indonesia
  48. Turkey
  49. Korea
  50. Philippines
  51. Residential Capital
  52. Russian Federation
  53. Sara Lee
  54. SLM
  55. Southwest Airlines
  56. Italia Telecom
  57. Telefonica
  58. Bear Sterns
  59. Dow Chemical
  60. Goldman Sachs
  61. PMI
  62. Thomson
  63. Time Warner
  64. Toll Brothers
  65. Tyson Foods
  66. Mexico
  67. Vodafone
  68. Volkswagen
  69. Wachovia
  70. Wells Fargo
  71. Weyerhaeuser
  72. Whirlpool
  73. Wolter Kluwer

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Please explain what I am seeing on those charts.

Credit Defaults Swaps are contracts "similar" to insurance.

Let's say I'm in the speaker business and I make bookshelf speakers and source my drivers from XYZ and only XYZ. If XYZ goes under, my company goes under. So I find someone (anyone) who will "insure" me against XYZ going down. Djk will insure me. You come to me with the terms (contract). I agree and pay you some amount every agreed upon period. If XYZ survives you make money, I loose. If XYZ goes down you pay according to contract (say $1M). The contract between you and I is a Credit Default Swap or CDS. I do not have to have any stake in the company XYZ.

Now, say 1000 other speaker companies decide to enter CDSs for the same reason I did becasue they all sole-source from XYZ. The total "value" of the compensation is now $1B. That $1B is termed the "Gross Notional" for XYZ.

The list above is an estimate of companies with largest Gross Notionals.

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Please explain what I am seeing on those charts.

Credit Defaults Swaps are contracts "similar" to insurance.

Let's say I'm in the speaker business and I make bookshelf speakers and source my drivers from XYZ and only XYZ. If XYZ goes under, my company goes under. So I find someone (anyone) who will "insure" me against XYZ going down. Djk will insure me. You come to me with the terms (contract). I agree and pay you some amount every agreed upon period. If XYZ survives you make money, I loose. If XYZ goes down you pay according to contract (say $1M). The contract between you and I is a Credit Default Swap or CDS. I do not have to have any stake in the company XYZ.

Now, say 1000 other speaker companies decide to enter CDSs for the same reason I did becasue they all sole-source from XYZ. The total "value" of the compensation is now $1B. That $1B is termed the "Gross Notional" for XYZ.

The list above is an estimate of companies with largest Gross Notionals.

Yes I understand that. But there are also company ABC (autozone) that has nothing to do with speakers or their manufactures. They also buy CDS on XYZ just because they think they are going to go down. When xyz goes down ABC gets paid. Basic like someone buying life insurance on someone else that they have no realtion too. Since these are not regulated by insurance boards of the states they are just bets or gambling. Instead of a horse race they are betting on viablity of companies or package morgages.

So in that list does autozone buy the swaps, sell the swaps or are they the subject of the swaps?

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What is amazing, to me, even now, is the absolutely ridiculous size of this unseen, unregulated market, its dramatic impact on our much smaller economy and the huge number of players CDS attracts, not just from logically related markets, such as banking and housing, but also from many other national corporations. We apparently have learned nothing from the manic tulip bulb boom of 1637, where a leverage ratio of 28-to-1 on contracts for future deliveries inflated prices ten times higher than before and after the boom – in less than six months! That is like Crude Oil suddenly trading to $200 or 400 a barrel.

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