Hurricane season is fast approaching

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's the MILSAT photo.

[Groomlakearea51]

Best I can come up with from the Climate Prediction Center.

[Groomlakearea51]

CPC is also predicting the south east coastal areas to be below average temperatures for the next few weeks. Well after living through the July-August Planet Mercury Simulation temps around here, I'll have no objections....

[Groomlakearea51]

Still gonna be hot though....

[Groomlakearea51]

Well.... Fred developed, and NHC seems to think that Fred will turn right away. But the tracks still are no as closely grouped as we would like. Here's Fred.

[Groomlakearea51]

Heres' the NHC discussion.

WTNT42 KNHC 080841
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

FRED IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGES.
THE STORM IS EXHIBITING A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURE WRAPPING
AROUND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. BASED ON THE
BANDING...DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE AT LEAST 3.0. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB
WASHINGTON...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO SET AT 45 KT.
CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS
OF THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY.
GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE SHORT-TERM
ENVIRONMENT...FRED CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY
3. BEYOND THAT TIME...

A LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
FRED. THAT...ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEAN...WILL PROBABLY
INDUCE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 DOES NOT
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE QUITE AS FAST AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND
275/13. THE NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH
OF FRED IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME ERODED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BY A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGES NEAR 28N AND 40W. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE
FRED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...

THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WEAK RIDGING DEVLOPING AGAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS TURN THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 WITH A VERY SLOW FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HINTS AT A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT AT 96-120
HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE FRED MUCH FARTHER NORTH IN 5
DAYS...BUT ARE BEING TREATED AS OUTLIERS FOR THE TIME BEING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 11.8N 27.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 12.1N 29.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 13.0N 30.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 13.9N 32.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 15.1N 33.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 17.5N 34.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 19.0N 34.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 20.5N 34.5W 55 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

Here's Fred's track plots.

[Groomlakearea51]

Fred's MIL TRACK

[Groomlakearea51]

and Freddy's graduation picture.....

[Groomlakearea51]

Meanwhile Freddy's ramping up for a semi-violent, if but short lived life that will fade into an aquatic insignificance in the vast expanse of the cold cruel high seas.....

[Groomlakearea51]

The techical description as to Freddy's impdening demise....

WTNT42 KNHC 090835
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED HAS UNDERGONE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE EYE IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN CLOUD TOPS
OF -55 DEG C OR COLDER...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER IS AT LEAST 5.0.
THIS CORRESPONDS TO A CONSERVATIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90
KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. FRED IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS
OR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
INTO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...FRED WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS
COMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SHOULD BRING ABOUT
WEAKENING...AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENCING AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH SEEM TO BE LESS
SENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS
THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN BENDING GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT
300/11. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES 35W NORTH OF
20N. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE TROUGH AND TO DECELERATE AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF FRED AND THIS COULD EVENTUALLY BLOCK THE
NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP FRED AS
A DEEP CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.

[Groomlakearea51]

MIL track

[Groomlakearea51]

Freddy's picture this morning. Very nice circulation, well defined eye,

[Groomlakearea51]

Freddy's turned into a major (CAT-3) hurricane and could actually get stronger according to NHC.

WTNT42 KNHC 091442
TCDAT2
HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

FRED HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW A
MAJOR HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
DISTINCT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED CHANNELS AND REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 102 KT...WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS NEAR
115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING FRED
THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS CAUSE FRED TO WEAKEN TOMORROW.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINAL SSTS COOLER
AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
WEAKENING EFFECTS OF THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE LESS
SENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT
305/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING AS MOST
GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ALL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
DECELERATES FRED AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS REBUILD THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF FRED BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS INITIALLY...THEN ENDS UP
SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE ANTICIPATION THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD
TAKE A MORE WESTWARD PATH. THE TWO BIGGEST OUTLIERS TO THIS
FORECAST ARE THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH THAN
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP IT AS A DEEP
CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.

IT IS QUITE UNUSUAL TO HAVE SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM SO FAR EAST IN
THE BASIN AND FRED IS ONLY THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE NOTED EAST OF
35W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO
FAR SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR DATA RECORD. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...
HOWEVER...WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY OBSERVE
BEFORE SATELLITE PICTURES BEGAN IN THE 1960S.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 13.9N 32.4W 105 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 14.9N 33.5W 110 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 16.2N 34.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 17.2N 34.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 17.7N 34.6W 80 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 18.7N 34.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 34.2W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 23.5N 36.0W 30 KT

[Groomlakearea51]

The track plots.

[Mr. RF62]

Is that an abnormal track plot Groomy??? It just seems weird, I know these things are unpredictable but I guess they travel up that way sometimes?!?

[Groomlakearea51]

Unusual in that the steering winds associated with the "Bermuda High" (region of high pressure in the North Atlantic due to generally colder temperatures) extends further to the south. This causes the "turn to the north" to occur much sooner. In the case of 2005 with katrina, et.al., the high pressure systems and the steering currents pushed them along the inter-tropical-convergence zone (ITCZ) until they found a low pressure ridge to run along.

[david.reed21]

It has come to my attention that the Euopean track plots always send the hurricanes crashing in to the US.

[Groomlakearea51]

You have learned well my appentice! The dark side of meteorology has been exposed!!!

[Groomlakearea51]

Actually the worst offender is UKMET because it relies on a particular model which gives more weight to the extraploation plots.... which always point towards south Florida at some point.....