THE CHART ROOM

[johnyholiday]

~$~ All Disclaimers Apply ~$~ The Dead Cat Bounce is over....get out

Lord
Rothschild said, “The time to buy is when there’s blood running in the
streets.” He added that the way he got rich was he “always sold too
soon.”

.

[artto]

No offense Johnny, but it seems to me that Bronson is simply saying that we are still in a bear market "supercycle" (better known as a secular bear market) which is not a new concept, and is not attributable Bob Bronson (although I'm sure he would prefer to have us believe otherwise since he renamed it after himself ~ BAAC ~ Bronson Asset Allocation Cycle).

It's been this way for some time - since 2000.The US stock market has never broken out above the 2000 high. In fact the S&P500 closed today where it was in late July, 1998 - no buy and hold gain for nearly 12 years! AND during those 12 years the S&P has been + & - about 35% (each direction) ~ TWICE, not including the current cyclical bull cycle (within a secular bear).

These secular bear markets can last from 9 or so years to +20 years depending on how you measure it. So the posted chart is telling us nothing new. It's simply telling us that we are much further along into the secular bear cycle (or supercycle as Bronson calls it) than we are to the beginning of one, and that the market has a way (probably a few years) to go before we're entering a new secular bull market. That being said, there's no reason plenty of money can't be made in the meantime - just as the opportunities have been during the there the last 10 years the current supercycle bear market. It should also be noted that Bronson's SuperCycle is a LONG TERM oscillator and has little if no usefulness on short term "dead cat bounce" scenarios.

IMHO, your opinion that the dead cat bounce may be over may in fact be true, however I don't see any correlation to that by using a long term oscillator like Bronson's SuperCycle. IMO there are better ways to reach that conclusion. Everything has been kind of weak since the January peak. The only way to consistently make money in the market is to know which asset classes are the strongest (or weakest), and which securities in those asset classes are strongest (or weakest if you're inclined to use that kind of strategy).

I certainly appreciate Lord Rothschilds perspective. Here's another one: Never short a dull market. Which way shall it go? [] or []

[johnyholiday]

johny won't chew on a P/E of 23....price is what you pay,value is what you get. .....The colored arrows on the right help to clarify where the cardinal points of the range are now located, the horrible Q4 2008 numbers are droping out of the equation and gives us a more realistic look at valuations ,also thats a classical Double Top this was a Dead Cat bounce fueled by shorts ,who had to cover when they jumped the gun, at the first neckline break, Ford in this example, is a good example http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top

the LONG TERM ,139 year Price with oscillator,is an illustration
,the market could grind side ways to down like after ~1974 Dead Cat
Bounce,or down 50% ~1936 to 1942,after the Dead Cat bounce of ~1931/32
occured, which lead to the Great Depression, and they didn't even
realize it ...

What’s the difference between data-mining and seeking out extremes in sentiment and valuation?

Two things, really. The latter strategy doesn’t require a rabbit’s foot – and it works.

[johnyholiday]

johny won't chew on higher yields.......the monthly yield charts for the 30 and 10 year US Government bonds with proprietary LONG TERM oscillator ,They're both butting up against resistance levels. Will the next Fed meeting cause a breakout? the declining credit worthiness of the US and other developed economies.....yields have to go up to attract interest in US debt {bonds}, yields go up bond prices go down.... not good

[johnyholiday]

johny doesn't like complacency ...a weekly chart of the S&P500. The

indicator in the lower panel measures all the assets in the Rydex

bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the

bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented

equity funds. When the indicator is green, the value is low and there

is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When

the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too

many bulls and this is when market advances stall.

Currently,

the value of the indicator is 68%. This is the highest value in 9

years. Values greater than 58% (arbitrarily chosen) are associated with

market tops, and the red dots over the price bars indicate such.

[johnyholiday]

now lets just see how this market handles

these 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels ,The S&P 500 closed today

at 1,211.67, a mere 1.1% below the daily-close retracement target.

[johnyholiday]

some investors love Fibonacci numbers, others hate them.

After the 1929 crash, there was a rebound
and the S&P came within a smidgen of its 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement. After approaching the 61.8% retracement, the market
reversed and resumed its prior Bear Market down trend.

[johnyholiday]

OUCH !

33 days of trading wiped out, 2 up gaps closed on the down side

looks like Banksters are in trouble,http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-charged-with-fraud-over-paulson-cdo-trade-2010-04-16 ya know during the S&L crisis they put away a 1,000 high profile Banksters,and not a single 1 during this last melt down,....remember the name Keating & The Keating Five who were five United States Senators http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keating_Five ,so also what scares Wall Street,is how much the Banksters and the Fedsters are intertwined....thats Poly-ticks for ya.....

now what was that Market Fib Level again ? one day doesn't make a market correction

[artto]

OUCH - yes.

Does "where there's smoke there's fire" apply here, as in this is only the tip of the iceberg?

OR ~ could this have been intentional, as in timed, as in poly-ticks, as in deliberate discount? On options expiration day no less.

GS reports next Tuesday.

Is it gonna buy? Or is it gonna go?

Une Nuit A Paris.....................may be your last.

[^] [W]

[artto]

OUCH !

now what was that Market Fib Level again ? one day doesn't make a market correction

They don't call it "Fib" for nothing.

[johnyholiday]

each

rally lasted from about 300 to 370 trading days and then moved into a

trading range/choppy phase that lasted for a year or more

is

the market going to 1 flatten out into a trading range/choppy

phase.....2 flatten out into a trading range/choppy phase with down

side bias......or 3 drop after Dead Cat Bounce .......oh ya...ah... 4 go higher

[johnyholiday]

March 2009 the Bull was crushed on the floor : It happened to be close to THE bottom ! now the Bear that is being crushed
against that bus will happen to be THE top we were all looking for. take both covers and add them to the chart below

[johnyholiday]

.

[johnyholiday]

Large Flag - Long Term Support & Resistance
Large Flags - can have Large moves
Price will break - up or down
Pivots on Price & RSI - point to up
2 Inverse Head & Shoulders - point to up

~$~ all disclaimers apply ~$~

*****Viva La Cucaracha !!!!*****

[johnyholiday]

~$~ all disclaimers apply ~$~

[johnyholiday]

Dicey
2 Ton Heavy Thing...Either way... stand aside...price popped out of
Flag, and allot of the time will reverse, with all the negatives, where
will Price find support on the down side

PS the whole thing could roll over, and this has been a " Dead Cat Bounce ", can QE2 fix the Cat !?.

[johnyholiday]

Connect

the dots, 2 different " Pivot Point Algorithms ", with 2 different

methodologies, firing off at the same time, one on a narrow index the

DJIA on Price ,and the other a broader index the S&P 500, on Price

and RSI

[johnyholiday]

Analog - amazing parallel between the market in the 1930s (which capture the 1937-1942 timeframe ) and the NASDAQ today

Roll Over - following the pattern and it is a " Dead Cat Bounce "

QE2 - Ben Shalom Bernanke has to throw the Silver Ball and spin! the Roulette Wheel ...he has no choice!

[jacksonbart]

This is important.

http://img.chan4chan.com/img/2009-08-02/1249223155178.gif

[johnyholiday]

a Dollar Bounce will cause an Equities pullback