Groomlakearea51 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Freddy is torn between two options - get stronger and live longer, but head north twoards those Euro folks with the biased super weather computer ensembles.... or get weak and head towards the east coast. WTNT42 KNHC 100834 TCDAT2 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009 FRED IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0411Z SHOWED THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAD AN INTACT INNER CORE...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HERALDING THE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SSTS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST PATH AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. IN A DAY OR SO...FRED IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE GFDL/HWRF STILL APPEAR TO UNREALISTICALLY KEEP FRED TOO INTENSE IN THE FACE OF RATHER STRONG SHEAR...THOUGH THEIR WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE REDUCED FROM SIX HOURS AGO. THE AMSR-E PASS HELPED TO PLACE THE INITIAL MOTION AT 315/10. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AS FRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER... FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM BY DAY 3...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE LEFT AND BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT THE END. IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TRACK EVEN MORE TO THE WEST IS LIKELY...BUT IF FRED REMAINS A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN IT COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN INDICATED BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 34.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.6N 35.1W 80 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 17.4N 35.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 17.9N 34.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 18.2N 34.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 34.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 21.5N 35.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 15/0600Z 23.0N 39.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Here's the NHC "consensus" cone of death.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 10, 2009 Share Posted September 10, 2009 Here's the "spaghetti" bowl mess that are the computer tracks...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dflip Posted September 10, 2009 Author Share Posted September 10, 2009 Unless it takes a turn towards the west - southwest, it's going to run out of steam and hit colder water. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david.reed21 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 The hydra track plot my favorite, namely because it means that no one really knows what is going to do, but it sure does look cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Nice avatar there Minion! Sorta' sums up how you will feel tomorrow when we drown the crew in the Zodiacs in the 4-6' seas, heh! heh!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Meanwhile, the NHC map looks like a demented version of "Whack-A-Mole".... They are just popping up all over the place.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 And the reasons why they are allegedly suspicious.... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 745 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.1. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE DELAWARE COAST IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.3. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Personally, I'm not particularly happy with Fearless Freddy.... It's turned to the west and while predicted to basically die out, it will hit warner waters if i continues in that direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Here's the NHC yaddy yaddy... WTNT42 KNHC 110848 TCDAT2 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009 500 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2009 THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER FRED...SO IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE ANY STRUCTURAL CHANGES. OVERALL... CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE STRONG NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HOLDING STEADY NEAR 77 KT. YET SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH EVEN SOME HINTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 75 KT...BUT THAT ESTIMATE COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY CAUSING STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE MARGINALLY WARM...THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF FRED SHOULD CAUSE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS AND HELP TO DIMINISH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. IT APPEARS THAT FRED HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH OR 000/3. LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST PERHAPS NUDGING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE A LITTLE NORTHEASTWARD. ONCE FRED WEAKENS INTO A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A REBUILDING SURFACE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HR THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AFTERWARDS...A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 17.7N 35.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.9N 35.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 18.0N 34.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.2N 34.6W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.6N 34.7W 35 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 20.0N 37.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 21.5N 42.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david.reed21 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Fearless Freddie, two days ago it was projected to go to Greenland, and it has decided to do like all other hurricanes, and aim at Okeechobee. I really am begining to think that the dark portal in a certine house in Okeechobee is causing all bad evil things to target this area of the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Military is still watching it; here's their track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david.reed21 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 We're doomed, again...........[H] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. RF62 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 I don't have a good feeling about this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 I really think that unless the latest low off Africa develops, we may only see some rough surf and heavy thunderstorms from any remnants of Freddy. Yah never know. The one that bears watching, if but for the rainfall it can produce is the low system off the Texas coast. Steering winds bring it over LA, etc and it could be alot of rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 17, 2009 Share Posted September 17, 2009 A nice pretty picture - especially for this time of the year..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Ok.... They are serious about the ornage one... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 Here's the plots for #1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Groomlakearea51 Posted September 18, 2009 Share Posted September 18, 2009 and the plots for #2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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